Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Either cutting out of work early or not going at all. Might be the most interesting setup since '11. What area would you be targetting if you had to guess now, I know it is subject to change, just getting an initial guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00z 4km NAM numbers for Ann Arbor: http://i.imgur.com/wUyErvF.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GFS with a similar look to the large structure around 00Z tomorrow night as the 00Z NAM showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 As noted, one of the top CIPS analogs is 6/5/10. I will never forget driving back to Chicago from Davenport,IA that afternoon when things just exploded along I-88. If tomorrow is anything like that, it'll be one to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00z 4km NAM numbers for Ann Arbor: http://i.imgur.com/wUyErvF.jpg If this verifies, I think there is 0 worry about a MCS/derecho sustaining itself all the way across lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'll be stuck at work till about 4 tomorrow, so I'm hoping initiation holds off as long as possible. I'm worried residual boundaries from tonight will fire stuff off early though, and the stuff may already be east of us by the time I get off. Synoptically the timing is almost perfect for the DVN area regarding initiation, but the early initiation would throw a wrench into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Either cutting out of work early or not going at all. Might be the most interesting setup since '11. I'm hoping to leave work at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Skilling saying afternoon and evening for storms/storm complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like potential for extremely heavy rainfalls in a zone from n/c IA across n IL into border areas of MI-IN-OH and sw ON, then into w NY as the low moves east Wed 12z to Thurs 12z. Would not be surprised to see local amounts in excess of 4 inches. Slow moving, entrainment, high moisture availability from previous rains etc. This is a time of year when 8-12 inch daily rainfalls have occurred in the past and can't be ruled out entirely in this set-up. The more tornadic type of severe storms would probably run more from about s/c IA through central IL-IN into s OH. I don't foresee very clearly defined warm sector, more of an oozing moist mess going highly unstable. Have a vague memory of an event like this over southwestern ON (Essex County) in about 1989 when the total rainfall was in excess of 12 inches and there was severe flooding of flat farmland. Not sure what happened in that event on the Michigan side of the border (anyone recognize the event I am thinking of?). Also June 1967 and 2000 both produced some massive rainfalls in that general region. I can remember dumping about three inches out of a rain gauge two days in a row and it was very warm and humid throughout. Ha, that previous post wasn't there when I was typing that, honest. Wonder what's in the red area behind him? 4-6" probably.l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 As noted, one of the top CIPS analogs is 6/5/10. I will never forget driving back to Chicago from Davenport,IA that afternoon when things just exploded along I-88. If tomorrow is anything like that, it'll be one to remember. Actually was along/south of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=NAM212&fhr=F024&flg= #1 CIPS Analog for the 00z NAM back to 6/5/10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Actually was along/south of 80. Ok, maybe the tornadoes were south of 80 but I remember what I drove thru on 88 and it wasn't fun. Either way, kinda hoping for an interesting day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 3z RAP is a little more aggressive with the lake breeze tomorrow with regards to how far inland it gets by 21z tomorrow. Also has the sfc low ESE of DSM at 21z with convection breaking out in eastern IA/DVN area and more scattered in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GRR bullish on keeping this ENTIRELY south of MI. UPDATE 11:45PM EDT AVIATION EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM BY 10Z WITH SOME IFR AND EVEN LIFR UNTIL AROUND 14Z. THEN MVFR OR VFR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SQUALL LINE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS REMAINING AOB 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GRR bullish on keeping this ENTIRELY south of MI. UPDATE 11:45PM EDT AVIATION EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM BY 10Z WITH SOME IFR AND EVEN LIFR UNTIL AROUND 14Z. THEN MVFR OR VFR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SQUALL LINE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS REMAINING AOB 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GRR bullish on keeping this ENTIRELY south of MI. UPDATE 11:45PM EDT AVIATION EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM BY 10Z WITH SOME IFR AND EVEN LIFR UNTIL AROUND 14Z. THEN MVFR OR VFR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SQUALL LINE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS REMAINING AOB 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. Disagree based on trends, but from Muskegon to Grand Rapids to Lansing, I could see this being the case. Places like Benton Harbor and Battle Creek should stand a good threat with tomorrow's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What area would you be targetting if you had to guess now, I know it is subject to change, just getting an initial guess. Somewhere north of I-80 in E. IA/N. IL. I'd like to make a play on any discrete activity and then the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Disagree based on trends, but from Muskegon to Grand Rapids to Lansing, I could see this being the case. Places like Benton Harbor and Battle Creek should stand a good threat with tomorrow's storms. We'll see in about an hour if SPC continues their agreement with GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not good... Oh my. It seems like it has done fairly well recently too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Where do those images come from again? And yeah... that does not look very good as night begins to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Where do those images come from again? And yeah... that does not look very good as night begins to fall http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ This whole setup is kinda unusual especially for the time of year. Been watching how the models are taking the surface low to 990 mb or even below as it heads out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ This whole setup is kinda unusual especially for the time of year. Been watching how the models are taking the surface low to 990 mb or even below as it heads out your way. It most def is... Ian said he couldn't find anything when he was taking a glance a to past history of an event like this... going to be an interesting next few days for us and for you all... stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ This whole setup is kinda unusual especially for the time of year. Been watching how the models are taking the surface low to 990 mb or even below as it heads out your way. This particular computer model dives that line right into Southern Indiana and N. Kentucky during the overnight hours. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not good... mxuphl_f21.gif mxuphl_f22.gif I was originally going to setup near Niles MI, Valpo IN isnt that much further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I dont think I've seen any other model take it SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Even when it goes more linear...there's this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ This whole setup is kinda unusual especially for the time of year. Been watching how the models are taking the surface low to 990 mb or even below as it heads out your way. From extreme on one model to a brief shower on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I dont think I've seen any other model take it SSE. Yeah I am not so sure about that evolution, especially with the low moving West to East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yeah I am not so sure about that evolution, especially with the low moving West to East. It would support the current day 2 outlook by SPC, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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