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About tornadotony

  • Birthday 12/06/1989

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    Madison, AL

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  1. The RAP (and, therefore, SPC mesoanalysis) didn't adequately capture the state of the boundary layer. This is a common problem amongst the vast majority of computer models, both those that explicitly resolve the boundary layer and those that have to parameterize it.
  2. No, it was definitely the poor moisture. All the problems we're discussing and storm observations that were made (storm structure, higher cloud bases, radar structure, lack of wind, lack of tornadoes, lack of upscale growth to an MCS) are issues common to LP supercells. If you look at the 00z sounding from ILX, you had 6809 J/kg of CAPE for a parcel originating at the surface. But if you mix the lowest 100 mb (which is more common in a storm environment), you only have 1185 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE. That's an incredible loss of 5624 J/kg of CAPE!
  3. I think it was more than that, though, because none of the supercells turned hard right, or right that much at all. That's extremely confusing because getting right-turners really relies on the deep shear and instability combination, which was certainly there. If you had a right-turner, SRH would have been more than sufficient for significant tornadoes. I'm not sure why we didn't have any, given the number of supercells that were observed today.
  4. Yeah it's a bit perplexing, to be honest. We clearly destabilized sufficiently, had overwhelming supercellular activity. Maybe the inflow was too weak? It certainly wasn't a supercell mode issue. Most of the supercells were classics.
  5. But they haven't yet, and low-level shear is increasing.
  6. The La Salle County storm has almost limitless potential, and it appears to know that now.
  7. All of the 170-190° wind obs in the eastern half of IL are pretty distressing. Didn't fully expect that, and if that Grundy/Will cell takes off, it's going to be really bad.
  8. Watch in IL is going to be a tornado watch.
  9. Most of the current mdt is going to be capped. The mdt needs to be shifted back to where it was in the 2nd day 2 yesterday. Focus is going to be RFD-JOT-LAF for this event, the MKX/LOT/IWX/IND CWAs.
  10. Plainfield occurred in W-WNW sfc flow. If you get a dominant supercell that turns right, all bets are off with this kind of atmosphere.
  11. Can probably modify all the temps below the cap to make the lapse rate dry adiabatic instead of superadiabatic.
  12. That DVN sounding was taken with a sfc T/Td of 84/77. It's 88/79 now.
  13. All you young forecasters at home need to read Ratzer's meso AFD, save it, print it off, and use it as your blueprint to severe storm nowcasting and short-fuse forecasting.