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Derek30

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  1. Cell near Earth, TX could be the first major player of the day eventually.
  2. Original Nacogdoches storm tornado warned now
  3. Think it’s pretty safe to assume areas south of Jackson, MS will be primed in the coming hours as the storms in LA progress east. They’ll be heading into a very unstable environment
  4. Have an inkling that Nacogdoches storm in E TX might do something as it encounters increasing MLCAPE in LA and eventually S MS. Seems to be pretty close to the warm front at the moment. S MS seems to be the sweet spot. Already seeing 2000-3000 MLCAPE in a good chunk of the MOD risk area. Bassfield and Laurel unfortunately appear to be in the crosshairs once again
  5. Could be a decent stretch into next week as well with a rather strong ridge encompassing the eastern US and prolonged SW flow aloft for the northern Plains and southern Canada
  6. Leaning towards the GFS solution over the NAM for Friday. Surge of moisture leads to increase in instability especially late into Friday night in MB. Not really seeing a surface based threat but instead a classic MCS/elevated scenario along and north of the warm front heading into Saturday morning. You folks think southwest MB could be a surface based play at some point Friday? Tough call as models hint at a dying MCS in that area early. MB historically has had a hard time with afternoon recovery behind MCS activity but we shall see.
  7. Anyone coming up north in the coming weeks may need to bring their passports. Looks like the potential for a good setup or two in SK/MB ahead.
  8. GFS has been hinting at big things for the central and northern Plains in early to mid June. Big time ridge followed by western troughing and the jet shifting north.
  9. Keep an eye on Sunday as well. Low progresses east and the trough finally approaches. Should be good forcing along with appreciable moisture and instability.
  10. Yeah, E SK looks to be the best bet tomorrow and Thursday. Ridge is overhead for S MB with MCS potential increasing both nights. E SK should see a few supercells with the highest risk on Thursday.
  11. Thursday looks volatile on top of the ridge in southern Manitoba. Reminds me a bit of a certain setup 9 years ago. Northern Plains also look active next weekend as the ridge breaks down. 6z and 12z GFS depicting a very strong low in ND.
  12. Can someone provide a link to the discussion thread for this event? I can't seem to track it down. Thanks.
  13. Was there a lot of CG lightning? Seems like tornadic supercells are prolific CG producers a lot of the time. Glad to hear you're ok though.
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