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Severe Threat June 11-13


Hoosier

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9Z RAP had a bowing structure moving through LOT around 21Z this evening

 

 

I'm feeling increasingly confident about Wednesday but this evening is the wild card for our region...does look like the threat is better than I initially thought. New Day 1 looks pretty good.

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I'm feeling increasingly confident about Wednesday but this evening is the wild card for our region...does look like the threat is better than I initially thought. New Day 1 looks pretty good.

yeah...tomorrow looks ripe...

 

nice little snippet from DVN as well...

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

618 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP

ACRS THE AREA AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW

DIGS EASTWARD ACRS IA ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF A HIGH CAPE/

POTENTIALLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT

BLEEDS OUT OF TUE NIGHT AND LINGERS ACRS THE CWA WED MORNING IN THE

FORM OF AN ONGOING MCS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...BUT CURRENT SIGNALS

ARE THAT THIS WILL DECAY AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR

DESTABILIZATION-AIR MASS RELOADING. IF SFC TEMPS CAN RECOVER INTO

THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70 DPTS...RESULTANT 2500-3500 J/KG

SBCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE PLENTY FOR EXPECTED BULK SHEAR

VALUES OF 50-60 KTS IN VIEW OF APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ATTACHED WARM

FRONT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MANY 00Z MODEL RUNS

SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY SOME LK MI FETCH FROM

THE NORTHEAST MAY LAY OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY WED

AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IF

WE GET THE ABOVE MENTIONED CAPES AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST

APPROACHES...ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL

TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE

DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING SUPERCELLS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY

OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CWA AGAIN ALONG AND

NORTH OF I80 AFTER 20Z WED. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY THEN EVOLVE

INTO A LARGE BOW ECHO OR A COUPLE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY

PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL LATE WED AFTERNOON

AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TAKING OVER AS THE

MAIN WIDESPREAD THREAT. CURRENTLY PROGGED THTA-E LAPSE RATES AND

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 70-85+ MPH WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE

ACRS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN DVN CWA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE

EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF IL WED EVENING. AGREE WITH

ASSESSMENT THAT ONGOING SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO

MODERATE RISK IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS IF ALL THESE LOOMING PARAMETERS

STILL SEEM WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD. HIGH TEMPS A SECONDARY CONCERN

AND A CHALLENGE WITH BOUNDARIES...MORNING DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON

RECOVERY SCENARIOS BUT MAY PLAY ON THE WARMER SIDE ESPECIALLY SOUTH

OF I80. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO

THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA AFTER 03Z THU.

 

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Michigan is not really that far behind in severe reports compared to some states. There are some pockets with few severe reports (see NE IN/NW OH) but assuming this is true and not because of lack of spotters, etc, that's just how it goes sometimes.

2013_annual_map_all.gif

Severe reports through June 9:

IL: 262

KY: 211

IN: 144

WI: 127

MI: 125

OH: 99

I've had approximately 3 days with lightning in the last two months... though after tomorrow that hole over NWOH/NEIN should be a little better. TOL's had a brutally boring year this year too, but it happens. 

 

Can't wait to see the 1730z update today. 

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Two things look to change our weather here across the southern half of lower Michigan.

If showers and storms hold off (as once was expected) today/tonight across IN/IL, the warm front will have no issues pushing northward through the area, which is good for tomorrow's activity as the derecho/mcs would likely follow the warm front right into the region giving the northern end of the slight risk (grand rapids to flint) a justified higher probability for severe weather tomorrow evening... HOWEVER...

Gotta love the "however"... lol

The butterfly effect could change our entire forecast for tomorrow while significantly reducing our severe weather chances except south of the MI/IN/OH state line (like usual). If storms develop over IN/IL today across the warm front, the front would likely stagger south or be slow to push north leaving several outflow boundaries along the front that was expected to be situated much further north over SWMI. That would imply the derecho/mcs to ride along the warm front tomorrow then nose diving into northern Indiana and Ohio completely missing Michigan all together (except for blow-off cloud cover and rain).

I believe the latter half of my discussion is looking more likely, but only time will tell.

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12z RAP much more bullish on some big storms this evening in northern IL.

 

Will also be interesting to see if we get some big time elevated supercells later tonight once the LLJ gets going with the amount of shear in place as instability increases.

 

 

HRRR also developes the energy in MN into a weak line through the metro this evening.

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Best setup of the year tomorrow. Will be nice to get severe weather since we have yet to see anything of significance yet this year. I think the tornado threat in the early afternoon looks pretty darn good for this area. Warm front traveling super cells are the best producers here easily. Busy day tomorrow

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where o where shall the boundary from left overs lie tomorrow....I-80 seemed to be the thought late last night....any changes?

 

 

My current thinking is we'll see a rather weak complex roll through mid evening, with another larger MCS originating overnight over southern MN and pusing SE into north central IL during the early morning hours.  Liking a prolonged lull during peak heating. I80 sill looks prime but threat certainly extends all the way to WI.

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My current thinking is we'll see a rather weak complex roll through mid evening, with another larger MCS originating overnight over southern MN and pusing SE into north central IL during the early morning hours.  Liking a prolonged lull during peak heating. I80 sill looks prime but threat certainly extends all the way to WI.

 

thanks!  yeah no doubt....was looking for a focus of initiation tomorrow afternoon/evening....clearly we'll have to wait and see for more precision. 

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GRR knows what I'm talking about.

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

I COORDINATED THE SEVERE RISK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GREG (WHO IS

DOING THE 1730Z OUTLOOK) TO BRING THE 30% RISK FARTHER SOUTH... TO

NEAR I-94 INSTEAD OF NEAR I-96 AS IT CURRENTLY IS. HE INDICATED HE

WOULD LIKELY HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY BUT

IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. HE FARTHER INDICATED HE STILL

BELIEVES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE

STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 94.

SINCE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA IT WOULD SEEM

TO ME THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE

TOO. HOWEVER AS ALWAYS... WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE SURFACE

WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP TOMORROW TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF

THE SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

I ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE

LOOP SHOWS THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THAT IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST NAM (12Z/11TH) TELLS ME OUR SEVERE

STORM THREAT WOULD MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AS THAT IS

WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF 850 CONVERGENCE AND 300 DIVERGENCE

SHOWS THE BEST FORCING.

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GRR knows what I'm talking about.

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

I COORDINATED THE SEVERE RISK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GREG (WHO IS

DOING THE 1730Z OUTLOOK) TO BRING THE 30% RISK FARTHER SOUTH... TO

NEAR I-94 INSTEAD OF NEAR I-96 AS IT CURRENTLY IS. HE INDICATED HE

WOULD LIKELY HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY BUT

IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. HE FARTHER INDICATED HE STILL

BELIEVES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE

STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 94.

SINCE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA IT WOULD SEEM

TO ME THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE

TOO. HOWEVER AS ALWAYS... WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE SURFACE

WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP TOMORROW TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF

THE SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

I ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE

LOOP SHOWS THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THAT IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST NAM (12Z/11TH) TELLS ME OUR SEVERE

STORM THREAT WOULD MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AS THAT IS

WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF 850 CONVERGENCE AND 300 DIVERGENCE

SHOWS THE BEST FORCING.

Can't wait to see the day2 update after reading this. Unfortunately I leave for work just before it comes out so won't see it until this evening.

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GRR knows what I'm talking about.

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

I COORDINATED THE SEVERE RISK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GREG (WHO IS

DOING THE 1730Z OUTLOOK) TO BRING THE 30% RISK FARTHER SOUTH... TO

NEAR I-94 INSTEAD OF NEAR I-96 AS IT CURRENTLY IS. HE INDICATED HE

WOULD LIKELY HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY BUT

IT WOULD BE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. HE FARTHER INDICATED HE STILL

BELIEVES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE

STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 94.

SINCE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA IT WOULD SEEM

TO ME THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE

TOO. HOWEVER AS ALWAYS... WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE SURFACE

WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP TOMORROW TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF

THE SEVERE STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

I ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE

LOOP SHOWS THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THAT IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST NAM (12Z/11TH) TELLS ME OUR SEVERE

STORM THREAT WOULD MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AS THAT IS

WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF 850 CONVERGENCE AND 300 DIVERGENCE

SHOWS THE BEST FORCING.

GRR has it right.

This is mostly an IA/IL/OH/IN event.

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New day 1 with a moderate area just west of subforum.

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/MID
   MO VLY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CNTRL HIGH PLNS E
   INTO THE MID MS VLY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SRN RCKYS INTO
   THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS WILL EXPAND EWD THIS PERIOD IN WAKE OF UPR
   IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE TN VLY YESTERDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...POTENT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLNS THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE TO
   REACH SD/NEB EARLY WED.

   GIVEN THE ABOVE PATTERN...EXPECT STOUT EML...WELL-DEPICTED IN THE
   MORNING RAOB DATA...TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TNGT FROM THE N CNTRL HI
   PLNS EWD INTO MID-MS/LWR OH VLYS.

   AT THE SFC...CNTRL HIGH PLNS LEE LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
   TODAY BEFORE ADVANCING E ACROSS SRN NEB TNGT AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH. A
   CORRIDOR OF FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW-LVL ELY FLOW
   WILL PERSIST N OF A W-E FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO MID-MS
   VLY.

   COMBINATION OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...SFC HEATING...AND
   APPROACHING UPR TROUGH LIKELY WILL LEAD TO STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVER PARTS OF ERN WY AND WRN SD. THIS ACTIVITY
   LIKELY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A SVR MCS THAT MOVES GENERALLY E ALONG
   THE NRN FRINGE OF THE EML CAP AND ALONG LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS THROUGH
   EARLY WED. IN THE MEANTIME...SCTD AREAS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR
   DIURNAL STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE EAST AND
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADDITION...WDLY SCTD ELEVATED STORMS WITH
   HAIL MAY OCCUR EARLY WED IN STRENGTHENING WAA ZONE ON NE FRINGE OF
   THE EML OVER THE OH VLY.

   ...N CNTRL HIGH PLNS TO MID MS VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
   LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS SD...NRN NEB...ERN
   WY...AND SE MT TODAY IN ELY UPSLOPE FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT/LEE LOW.
   COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND INCREASING UPR LVL
   DIVERGENCE/DCVA WITH APPROACH OF UT UPR VORT...SETUP WILL BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
   ALONG LEE TROUGH AND BY MID TO LATE AFTN. COMBINATION OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ AND 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR
   LIKELY WILL YIELD SCTD SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN SW SD...NE
   WY...AND NW NEB.

   GIVEN VERY DEEP/STRONG EML...PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
   MID/UPR-LVL FLOW...AND MOIST/ELY LOW-LVL FLOW...SETUP APPEARS
   FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A SVR FORWARD-PROPAGATING/
   POSSIBLE DERECHO-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. SUCH A SYSTEM COULD
   EXTEND A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL..AND ISOLD TORNADOES E INTO NE
   NEB/NW A/SE SD AREA BY 12Z WED. FARTHER E...SMALLER...SOMEWHAT
   ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   OVER PARTS OF IL/IND/OH IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT ON NERN FRINGE OF EML.

 

 

post-4544-0-64433700-1370968812_thumb.gi

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12z SPC WRF develops the IA storms and runs them through LAF and southward this evening...has tomorrow afternoon storms for southern WI and northern IL...then the big show for tomorrow night looks to be mainly I-80 and south. Just one model's take, we shall see.

 

Tonight

 

 

Tomorrow night

 

 

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12z SPC WRF develops the IA storms and runs them through LAF and southward this evening...has tomorrow afternoon storms for southern WI and northern IL...then the big show for tomorrow night looks to be mainly I-80 and south. Just one model's take, we shall see.

 

Tonight

 

attachicon.gifrefd_1000m_f11.gif

 

Tomorrow night

 

attachicon.gifrefd_1000m_f36.gif

 

 

not sure we see the IA storms develope like that (although the NMM does something similar), also not sure any model has a good grasp on the evolution of tonights plains MCS but in general, I think I80 south for the main show remains the right call.

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12z SPC WRF develops the IA storms and runs them through LAF and southward this evening...has tomorrow afternoon storms for southern WI and northern IL...then the big show for tomorrow night looks to be mainly I-80 and south. Just one model's take, we shall see.

Max updraft helicity at 36 hours:

mxuphl_f36.gif

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