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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs


free_man

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Cloudy, 40/36. A bit worried about temps, but I think the fact that it's at night really helps us.

 

-skisheep

there's not going to be enough QPF to help us....won't get below freezing here tonight (or even close) the 2nd event might be our better chance IMO

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there's not going to be enough QPF to help us....won't get below freezing here tonight (or even close)

I disagree, as does upton(31 for here and they basically used EURO for their forecast), but even if it's 33 or 34, we should still be able to accumulate. We shall see what happens, but I think 2-4" is not unreasonable for tonight.

-skisheep

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I disagree, as does upton(31 for here and they basically used EURO for their forecast), but even if it's 33 or 34, we should still be able to accumulate. We shall see what happens, but I think 2-4" is not unreasonable for tonight.

-skisheep

With winds screaming out of the east or ENE and dewpoints in the mid 30's, I don't see it.

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Squalls and 33F here on the hill in Leominster... not sticking

Yeah it has been coming down here basically since I got up at 7 AM.  Was also coming down at a moderate pace in Gardner, not accumulating much though. I bet up at the top of WaWa its a couple inches worth....might have to try the new skis tonight.  33.2F

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Interesting day here today as it feels like a cold advection/lake effect day, but in reverse. We've had instability driven snow showers from the east alternating with intervals of sunshine.

 

Often times we'll get this type of weather in a W to NW flow regime, but never in an E to NE regime. Due to high instability, there is not much upslope or downslope to speak of as this usually occurs when things are a bit more stable. Froude numbers must be very high due to instability and strong wind field, so this air is not really being impeded by the mountains. Higher elevations do have the advantage of being colder though, so snow showers will stick up near 2K.

 

It will be interesting to see how an easterly wind aloft coupled with a northerly wind in the low levels impacts shadowing around here later tomorrow and tomorrow night when some of the stuff from the main low gets pulled back by the disturbance coming in from the Great Lakes. Last week's event featured southerly flow aloft with easterly in the low levels and the shadowing was horrendous here. My guess is that shadowing won't be as bad here on the west slope if low levels winds are more northerly.

 

The key for this area getting some decent snow is the degree of interaction between the Great Lakes wave and the main low offshore. I could see myself getting an inch of glop or 8-12" of paste come Friday morning. It's very difficult forecast, so I'd go somewhere in the middle. 4-6" for me and much of the west slope above 1K, 6-9+" for the crest and the east slope above 1K, 2-4" for the Hudson and Pioneer Valleys below 1K. Best shot for jackpot would be the east slope of the Catskills where 10-13+" could fall if things come together. Again, this is a somewhat low confidence forecast for now.

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Interesting day in Springfield-- in the noon hour the overcast, with breaks of blue had the look of the advance of a tropical system instead of a winter storm threat-- all the while with a stiff easterly wind, and the Holyoke range coaxing down snowshowers.

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