CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It look lie it was going to be a better run as the trough was digging further SE Yeah it did, but when I saw it was still moving east...it looked like it may swing out and just miss. You want it to slow just a wee bit. Not a bad place to be 5+ days out I guess...but lots can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Throw me into that club. We haven't seen 2 feet of snow in Albany since 93. No offense to those east of us, but I'm rooting for a more west solution. We're still about 12" under climo for the year. I don't know about ALB officially, but my last year living in Delmar we got 24" in the Christmas 2002 storm (most of it in like 10 hours that afternoon/evening) and then like 9 days later on January 4, 2003 we got another 20". And I think ALB got just under two feet in VDay 2007... but yes, solidly exceeding 24" in one storm has been difficult, though I don't think the Hudson Valley really has the climo for that, lol. Logan's area got like 5 feet of snow in February 2010 (?) in like 4 days, while ALB rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the kicker out west shoots the storm east not allowing it to close off, plus the lack of legit blocking. If you get it to dig a bit farther west that is a 100% HISTORIC shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Powderfreak, Mitch and I really need that UKMET or GGEM solution. We're the only ones who post on this sub-forum that missed the big snows. LOL Poor Mad River Glen barely managed to re-open but reporting "Thin Cover, Bare Spots, Windblown Snow, Icy Patches" Or the 06z GFS depiction. These weenie model runs are indicative of what this trough is capable of producing. Whether or not it does so the million dollar question. It could be nothing more than a cold dry trough that results in nothing at all or a fish storm. However, I think the former is much less likely than the latter. I do believe there will be a significant storm, but where it tracks remains to be seen. It's quite possible that this mega trough could produce a sub 970 mb bomb somewhere. You can get a big storm in a meh pattern if things come together just right. This past weekend was an example of that. Or you can get no storm (or a fish storm) in a beautiful pattern. It all depends on if the players come together the right way. Throw me into that club. We haven't seen 2 feet of snow in Albany since 93. No offense to those east of us, but I'm rooting for a more west solution. We're still about 12" under climo for the year. Ouch...has it been that long? There were some good meso bands in Albany during the 2002-2003 timeframe, i.e. 1/6/02, 12/25/02, 1/4/03, and 12/6/03. That was a lucky stretch for the Capital District where there was more snow than here in the Berks. I had my lucky stretch with 12/26/10, 1/12/11, and 10/29/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still an eye opening trough though. Gotta respect it. Yeah... as long as we keep that big trough digging in, something at least has the chance to develop. I bet we'll see several days now of close calls or hits... then that same model will reverse the next run, and so on. At the very least it looks like a possible snow for portions of the southern mid-Atlantic as the thing tries to get its act together down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can get a big storm in a meh pattern if things come together just right. This past weekend was an example of that. Or you can get no storm (or a fish storm) in a beautiful pattern. It all depends on if the players come together the right way. Ouch...has it been that long? There were some good meso bands in Albany during the 2002-2003 timeframe, i.e. 1/6/02, 12/25/02, 1/4/03, and 12/6/03. That was a lucky stretch for the Capital District where there was more snow than here in the Berks. I had my lucky stretch with 12/26/10, 1/12/11, and 10/29/11. I remember getting 17" in 1/6/02 (ALB officially had 8" in 2 hours on the METARs during that one) and we got buried late 2002 to early 2003 (Only time I'd ever seen a 36 inch snowpack in my 18 years growing up just south of ALB). There was a good stretch for the interior in that one... then it switched to the western CT/Berks/south-central NH... now it seems to be moving further east to the ORH-TOL corridor, haha. Interesting how that happens where you get a series of storms that seem to jackpot the same areas a few times, then it moves to another location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Powderfreak, Mitch and I really need that UKMET or GGEM solution. We're the only ones who post on this sub-forum that missed the big snows. LOL Poor Mad River Glen barely managed to re-open but reporting "Thin Cover, Bare Spots, Windblown Snow, Icy Patches" To be honest, that's sort of business as usual at a New England ski area that doesn't have snowmaking, lol. We definitely missed the big snows but a 10-12 inch snowstorm in the villages up here was welcomed. That's how Jan 2011 was... SNE gets a HECS and we'd get a 7-14" storm. That happened like 3 times, that month, lol. I'm just looking for more snow... I'm not really on a HECS fetish lookout, as those happen once in a while and its the luck of the draw. Can't get hung up on it. Sooner or later it comes around, and Logan you probably had your HECS in February 2010 when those two storms in like 4 days gave you 40-60 inches of snow while it was pouring Sultan-type rains in New England. So it all evens out over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Where everyone gets involved next weekend, IF right... DC-BOS. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I, for one, am shocked that the nuclear detonation displayed by the 06z run has been reduced to a scraper. NO MORE NUKES! NO MORE NUKES! NO MORE NUKES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS goes poof hoping it's sniffed out another storm only to lose it before finding it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 As expected tons of spread on the GEFS at this time frame but there is one member that goes absolutely ape sh*t, check out P001 tracks it right up I95 occludes around NYC. Big time precip maker lol. CP would probably be screwed but feet and feet for the mountains. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf144.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf156.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 As expected tons of spread on the GEFS at this time frame but there is one member that goes absolutely ape sh*t, check out P001 tracks it right up I95 occludes around NYC. Big time precip maker lol. CP would probably be screwed but feet and feet for the mountains http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf144.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf156.html P008 would be an epic storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like P001 better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Actually the gfs has something possibly a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Actually the gfs has something possibly a scraper. Turns out to be a advisory event for Long Island and the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good spot for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd hit this run of the gfs . Late bloomer but doesn't do much for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good place for it right now, After the GFS last performance on the blizzard i would not want it showing a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Terrible as it is, GGEM plows a 974 L right up Blizz's fanny 12z MON UKIE at 120 has a 999 L... but looks like its for the fishies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 00z gefs is impressive for you guys, as well as NYC area wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NOGAPS looks great. adv/warning event which sets up a 50/50 low, or pseudo 50/50 in la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NOGAPS looks great. adv/warning event which sets up a 50/50 low, or pseudo 50/50 in la-la land. What is a 50/50 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro 100% miss. This one is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What do the Euro Ens show. That is what has been hitting this hard all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What do the Euro Ens show. That is what has been hitting this hard all along They've been a miss for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro 100% miss. This one is over Lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lol....?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 What is a 50/50 low? A low that has a 50% chance of forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 A low that has a 50% chance of forming. LOL Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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