HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Next week? Wherefore art thou? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 No you're right - however, "verbatim" this run may be less useful. For one, even though it is immensely popular if not downright romantic to bash the NAM, it has been remarkably stable - very consistent run to run continuity. In the art of deterministic weather prediction, that's at least one of the colors on the canvas. Contrasting, the Euro upped it's amplitude regarding the first system, which is "dis"continuity, and is a red flag that; particularly when considering the former point. So yeah, it is probably wrong. Also, the later amplitude on toward next weekend appears to have wave spacing issues. So did the GGEM actually, though differently. Let me ask you something, Tip. I moved up here with my girl up here to Cape Cod from the Bronx a few months back, and you seem like a reasonable person. I don't know you, but if I had to judge you, I would say you're somewhat of a weather consigliere. And I can use one of those right about now. You see, my girl and her old lady are planning a surprise baby shower for this cousin on Sunday the 17th. I need some solid advice. I need to know what's gonna happen without any monkey wrenches. So I'm gonna ask you, I just wanna know everything is gonna be OK for the planes and the cars and what not. I'm counting on you. If everything works out OK, there's a little something in there for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And then comes the Euro to bring us back to reality. What a reverse from the last storm huh? Euro develops idea of last one, everyone else then plays catch up. Potential weekend storm idea is developed by everyone but the Euro.......does Euro play catchup with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Let me ask you something, Tip. I moved up here with my girl up here to Cape Cod from the Bronx a few months back, and you seem like a reasonable person. I don't know you, but if I had to judge you, I would say you're somewhat of a weather consigliere. And I can use one of those right about now. You see, my girl and her old lady are planning a surprise baby shower for this cousin on Sunday the 17th. I need some solid advice. I need to know what's gonna happen without any monkey wrenches. So I'm gonna ask you, I just wanna know everything is gonna be OK for the planes and the cars and what not. I'm counting on you. If everything works out OK, there's a little something in there for you too. If he's wrong....cement overcoat in the harbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Euro came north with the VD event. Now gets like 1-3" into NYC for the first time. The 0Z run had nothing relly north of BWI. No hope way up here..but just saying.... Verbatim on the Euro both storms are nothing like the other guidance. I'm not saying it's right, just saying that the Euro OP isn't that interesting at face value. I think it's probably wrong, but there will be a lot of people that ride it even though NCEP says we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is a ton of hype that there will be a big storm this weekend AND early next week already. My god. Happens every time there's a big one. Part of it is media outlets looking to milk every last ounce of ratings, and part of it is that people who don't normally pay much attention to extended forecasts are hyper-alert after a major storm and don't understand the nuances involved. I had relatives from out west telling me on Friday -- as the blizzard was just getting going -- that they'd heard Cantore talking about a parade of coastal storms to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Powderfreak, Mitch and I really need that UKMET or GGEM solution. We're the only ones who post on this sub-forum that missed the big snows. LOL Poor Mad River Glen barely managed to re-open but reporting "Thin Cover, Bare Spots, Windblown Snow, Icy Patches" Next week? Wherefore art thou? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro ensembles still not biting this weekend, but that looks like a powderkeg pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro ensembles still not biting this weekend, but that looks like a powderkeg pattern. Ingredients there for a pop-up KU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro ensembles still not biting this weekend, but that looks like a powderkeg pattern. 00z EC Ensemble mean had a low just SE of region right? At hour 144. Wouldn't this be the same system that all the other globals are blowing up? I will agree though that the pattern does look great. Wonderful trough in the east and great ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ingredients there for a pop-up KU? It's too far north though. Congrats Quebec City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's too far north though. Congrats Quebec City. That's too bad. Anything in the set-up that would allow it a further south development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's too bad. Anything in the set-up that would allow it a further south development? Yeah there is enough time for that to occur. It would only take a better time s/w to do it. I think the pattern in general looks conducive for something. Not a lock though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Powderfreak, Mitch and I really need that UKMET or GGEM solution. We're the only ones who post on this sub-forum that missed the big snows. LOL Poor Mad River Glen barely managed to re-open but reporting "Thin Cover, Bare Spots, Windblown Snow, Icy Patches" Throw me into that club. We haven't seen 2 feet of snow in Albany since 93. No offense to those east of us, but I'm rooting for a more west solution. We're still about 12" under climo for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Powderfreak, Mitch and I really need that UKMET or GGEM solution. We're the only ones who post on this sub-forum that missed the big snows. LOL Poor Mad River Glen barely managed to re-open but reporting "Thin Cover, Bare Spots, Windblown Snow, Icy Patches" Also that poor dude in Bennington, VT. Has anyone checked on him? He could really use another Feb 26 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro ensembles still not biting this weekend, but that looks like a powderkeg pattern. Trough extends down towards the gulf, Would be a great coastal track if we can a wave to develop on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Powderfreak, Mitch and I really need that UKMET or GGEM solution. We're the only ones who post on this sub-forum that missed the big snows. LOL Poor Mad River Glen barely managed to re-open but reporting "Thin Cover, Bare Spots, Windblown Snow, Icy Patches" Just what all the local snomo trails look like where they run thru the fields. 11" of windblown fluff didn't do all that much, though far better than nothing. As long as your westward solution doesn't wash away our limited snowcover, fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z GFS digging the trough for oil down to the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HOLY look at that trough!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The trough keeps moving so it might not get as far north as some think on this run. We'll see shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like it will graze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It is probably going to go SE of the BM by 400mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah not looking as good its slower this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Right where we want it right now anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z gfs toss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still an eye opening trough though. Gotta respect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That kink in the ridge keeps it progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still an eye opening trough though. Gotta respect it. It look lie it was going to be a better run as the trough was digging further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I, for one, am shocked that the nuclear detonation displayed by the 06z run has been reduced to a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That kink in the ridge keeps it progressive I think it gave it some room to scoot east some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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