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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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Lol...the models still matter - the event is just starting and part of "nowcasting" is using the models

 

At this point, I'm pinning my hopes on the observation that Ryan and Will had of dying convection down south.  Perhaps that's something the NAM/SREFS missed.

 

It's tough to sneeze at a foot of snow except for when you were so close to significantly more.  Congrats Blizz/Dave and points east.

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i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct

 

Because it's the NAM and those numbers are unlikely to verify. The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. 

 

The SREFs have cut back again (pretty substantially) in CT and continue the trend. 1.5" or so statewide with more in SE CT and a bit less in W CT.

 

The trend matters... the numbers don't.

 

Still thinking 1-2 feet but likely not looking at historic totals. 

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i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct

Because it's the NAM for one so the usual rules about cutting QPF by at least one-third still apply, and the trend has been to slowly reduce QPF with time and shift the maxima further and further east. For most of us this won't be historic unless there's some shift west in the next 6-12 hours. The late capture was always a concern.

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i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct

 

It's the trend that is a concern. Compare 12z NAM with 0z NAM...pretty sizable jump east. If GFS stays the course I gotta agree with Ryan, this won't be historic.

 

 

Lol...the models still matter - the event is just starting and part of "nowcasting" is using the models

 

Agreed. I hate the people who start throwing out models 12 hours out claiming its nowcast time. Even the bet met isn't gonna be able to nowcast 12 hours out.  :rolleyes:

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Because it's the NAM for one so the usual rules about cutting QPF by at least one-third still apply, and the trend has been to slowly reduce QPF with time and shift the maxima further and further east. For most of us this won't be historic unless there's some shift west in the next 6-12 hours. The late capture was always a concern.

We'll see...radar looks mighty fine to my eyes. 

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The NAM QPF always blows but the Euro and SREF all get us to about 2'' of QPF, so we could theoretically come close. I'm kind of expecting what we got in Jan '11, only with wind. About 18''.

With 2" QPF and cold temps I don't know how we would only get 18"...poor snow growth?

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With 2" QPF and cold temps I don't know how we would only get 18"...poor snow growth?

Well first we actually need that QPF to verify. But then yeah, snow growth doesn't depend on temps at the surface. I don't know what the profile looks like aloft and also winds aloft and at the surface might shred flakes.

 

I'd be thrilled with "only 18" too lol, especially here which isn't exactly the most likely location to jackpot in these things.

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With repeated model runs (excepting the GFS) continuing to point to a major-to-historic snowstorm in New England, I'm certainly encouraged with that possibility. Hopefully, Jerry, Ginxy, Kevin, and others will experience something along the lines of a blizzard of a lifetime.

 

 

It seems likely that this area will have true blizzard conditions later tonight. Hopefully we get some thunder snow like I remember happening during the Blizzard of 1983.

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Because it's the NAM and those numbers are unlikely to verify. The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. 

 

The SREFs have cut back again (pretty substantially) in CT and continue the trend. 1.5" or so statewide with more in SE CT and a bit less in W CT.

 

The trend matters... the numbers don't.

 

Still thinking 1-2 feet but likely not looking at historic totals. 

Whats the record for BDL 24.1" and BDR only has a few storms over 15" since the 50s.. getting in that range will be historic.. ya we won't get the 3'+ like we could have but I think both locations will easily be in top 5 all time which is historic I think.. 

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Because it's the NAM and those numbers are unlikely to verify. The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. 

 

The SREFs have cut back again (pretty substantially) in CT and continue the trend. 1.5" or so statewide with more in SE CT and a bit less in W CT.

 

The trend matters... the numbers don't.

 

Still thinking 1-2 feet but likely not looking at historic totals. 

That's a good call.   More east, less west. 

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With repeated model runs (excepting the GFS) continuing to point to a major-to-historic snowstorm in New England, I'm certainly encouraged with that possibility. Hopefully, Jerry, Ginxy, Kevin, and others will experience something along the lines of a blizzard of a lifetime.

Thanks Don.This is shaping up to be in the top 2 events for this part of CT at least in my lifetime. We'll need to beat 26 inches which seems fairly possible.

 

Enjoy the snow down there as well

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We'll see...radar looks mighty fine to my eyes. 

Radar does look fine. For a solid snowstorm, but nothing historic. I have 7.5 inches on the season so if 8-12 or 10-14 verifies I'll take it. For comparison, I've broken then 20 inch mark for a single storm a couple of times in the last 8 years alone, and I doubt we even approach that.

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Agreed. I hate the people who start throwing out models 12 hours out claiming its nowcast time. Even the bet met isn't gonna be able to nowcast 12 hours out.  :rolleyes:

 

Not to mention that models don't get less accurate before they get more accurate... (maybe that is true relative to each other, but I cringe every time I hear "The GFS isn't good until 96 hours out" or something similar). 

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It's the trend that is a concern. Compare 12z NAM with 0z NAM...pretty sizable jump east. If GFS stays the course I gotta agree with Ryan, this won't be historic.

 

 

 

Agreed. I hate the people who start throwing out models 12 hours out claiming its nowcast time. Even the bet met isn't gonna be able to nowcast 12 hours out.  :rolleyes:

True, I'll wait for GFS I just don't know how much more room, the NAM has to be wrong.. If it's still trending than ok, but we still have room it has to be a substantial trend inside 18 hours.. i just don't see how it snows for 24 hours and we don't see widespread 18" which makes it top 5.. 

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Thinking about the GFS and the idea that the bombing (and esp. the stall) happens later/east of the other guidance - it seems to be somewhat consistent with this year's previous setups -  with E MA and the Cape bearing the brunt.

 

 

 

The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. 

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I popped in over there.  Couldn't take the desperation so I left.

Not sure why they are freaking out, sure it's not what it was yesterday but this is going to put Central Park above climo most likely(they need 7.3 inches I belive), and for where we have been this winter there should be no need to complain.

 

-skisheep

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just took this from the NYC thread

 

12Z ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NAM BEST FIT ON PRES. ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON
6 HR QPF ENDING 12Z. HOWEVER THE MOST IMPORTANT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS IS IN LARGE ERROR ON ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND THAT THE 06Z
NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATE...I.E. COLDER. CC ON THE
821 AM RADAR SHOWS THE PHASE CHANGE VERY NICELY...FROM NEAR KUKT-
JUST N OF KTTN TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KLDJ AND KBLM. WE`VE SEEN 48-52 KT
GUSTS JUST EAST OF KORF AT 13Z.

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With repeated model runs (excepting the GFS) continuing to point to a major-to-historic snowstorm in New England, I'm certainly encouraged with that possibility. Hopefully, Jerry, Ginxy, Kevin, and others will experience something along the lines of a blizzard of a lifetime.

Thanks Don me too. With the winds and qpf predictions should be a great storm.
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