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About LocoAko

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  • Birthday 06/25/1990

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Oklahoma City, OK
  • Interests
    Photography, piano, mallet percussion, amateur storm chasing, hiking

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  1. Severe Weather Threat 7/1

    Pretty impressive ZDR arc on the storm near Freehold a few scans ago. About as good as you'll typically see in NJ. Separated from the KDP maximum as well implying ingested SRH.
  2. So glad I was preoccupied and feeling lazy and decided to sit this one out in Norman. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
  3. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Some of you may be interested in this paper by Jeff Snyder about the use of mobile radar data in assigning damage ratings. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00026.1
  4. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Cool brief scud/spin-up of some sort on the Thunderbird cell with downtown OKC in the background.
  5. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Was watching the Thunderbird cell from the observation deck here at NWC until it got too hazy to see the base clearly. Had a long, thin funnel go overhead as it first started developing. Gorgeous structure. Should've gone out...
  6. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Yeah really. Almost looked like CGI at some points. Man.
  7. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Also looks like some towers going up around Duncan, OK.
  8. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    I don't want to beat a dead horse or regress, but in no way was Brett implying that hi-res NWP will/should replace forecasters. Not sure where you got that from. He was acknowledging how well CAMs seem to be performing this season, and that ignoring their consensus should be done at one's own peril (e.g., dewpoints in the 60s yesterday, characteristics of UH swaths from the past few threats, etc). Of course epic fails will still occur given the extremely nonlinear nature of convective initiation and the occasional failure of parameterization schemes to capture things like surface fluxes during droughts, etc. Observations are still crucial and nothing can really be substituted for forecaster intuition and experience, but IMO we are beginning to enter a time where hi-res stuff offers insight that you can't get otherwise. Once a model is spun-up and the physics adjust and balance, it's totally reasonable to expect these models to have represent extremely small scale features that models with lower grid spacings and especially our current network of observations can't capture. Of course if all models are showing a certain UH swath that comes to verify it can be a bit of a black box problem to determine what exactly they all honed in on to cause that. But given the relatively low density of our observing networks, and assuming proper analysis and quality control of the data fed in, I think one has to at least strongly consider the immense value that a model data assimilation system (that is, the optimal combination of both the observation networks and the model's physical constraints, carrying information from past assimilation cycles forward, and having a complete suite of physics (i.e. a soil model for surface fluxes, etc)) can offer as a forecasting tool.
  9. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Definitely geeking out over how textbook the axisymmetric ZDR arcs are on these splits. Awesome.
  10. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Cool opposite, axisymmetric ZDR arcs on both splits of the Frederick supercell. Clear sign of size sorting and SRH being ingested. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
  11. May 7th-9th Severe Weather Episodes

    Right. I think what you're saying essentially agrees with Brett -- that the obs are combined with the background field in a statistically optimal way for that model. In other words, the goal for the model is not to look exactly like the obs, but to form a dynamically balanced analysis to get the best forecast. I greatly enjoyed that class, too. Fantastic post.
  12. April 24-30th Severe Potential

    Oh boy. Circulation should go south of me, but I'm expecting some potentially huge hail at least. Preliminary kudos to all of the CAMs that pinpointed this supercell sliding up I-44. Impressive.
  13. April 24-30th Severe Potential

    Preliminary data from a friend's 18Z sounding launch across the Red River from Burkburnett, TX. https://twitter.com/RumblinMatt/status/726112873903063040
  14. April 24-30th Severe Potential

    It's from the 12Z SPC WRF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ (So IMHO, yes. )