Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Weenie question, but looking at the spec meso 500 charts, how will you be able to tell the phase has started? Or do we look for something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The late stall/capture seems like a lock now. Notice it slows east of ack as opposed to southwest of ack. Big difference ct/w mass but a big big hit east. Obviously the NAM was going to trend....it was capturing it off of NJ last night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I mean that destroys CT/RI to BOS..crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bam! 2"+ for the entire state of CT except far NW. Blizzard incoming! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I mean that destroys CT/RI to BOS..crushed yes, it's a great run for this area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still shows over 2' even in extreme W CT? Looks fine lol..but E CT...Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah unsure what folks are talking about..The only real difference is in E NY and NW mass The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here. An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bam! Still a bit mroe QPF after that. Definite shift east though...would love for the GFS to come in just a tad west for once...but it's really been stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar has filled in nicely and returns to my south look awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah unsure what folks are talking about..The only real difference is in E NY and NW mass The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here. An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been. I hope you guys still get crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like 1.25" now. building in shift on SREF, and other guidance, I think a solid 12 is in store for GC. I don't think I'll come in short of a foot, but certainly am not anticipating much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here. An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been. I'm gonna give the GFS one final chance to tick west at 12z before I throw in the towel on something historic. NAM is still a crusher for most of the state. 3" for the entire eastern half. But the east trend can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here. An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been. Agreed, but, with this winter, we don't need historic. Let me put it this way, if this was pegged as 6-10" people would have been ecastic, we saw people going insane over a couple of inches with all the clippers, to finally have a real storm is something to be thankful for and excited about, no matter the amounts. Still expecting around a foot here, but congrats to E MA and RI, you are getting a blizzard! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here. An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been. Thought you'd be nowcasting more than modelcasting at this point to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam finally catching on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar has filled in nicely and returns to my south look awesome. Yup looks like it will pick up here again shortly. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thought you'd be nowcasting more than modelcasting at this point to be honest. Trends have been crystal clear last 12-18 hours. Those who don't see that are blind lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam finally catching on Enjoy Phil:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 nam still looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 24+ is definitely a possibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM gives me 3' even I'd say. I mean I guess I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol...the models still matter - the event is just starting and part of "nowcasting" is using the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bam! Looks like Jan 2011....congrats Ginxy jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still shows over 2' even in extreme W CT? Looks fine lol..but E CT...Wow. yeah, lol, what's everyone worried about...I'll take 2 inches of QPF anyday...am a bit surprised NAM hasn't chopped it overall..usually does that right before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Big question is how much farther East can this realistically go at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like Jan 2011....congrats Ginxy jackpot With double the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is it really an east trend? Nowcast data suggests the low is over Hatteras, or just inside HSE, and that seems pretty far west to me. It's also dropping in pressure more than expected, which could mean an earlier phase/capture. That's what I'm hoping, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 24+ is definitely a possibility... The NAM QPF always blows but the Euro and SREF all get us to about 2'' of QPF, so we could theoretically come close. I'm kind of expecting what we got in Jan '11, only with wind. About 18''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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