snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I'm feeling good about having this go a bit east of where the OP prog for 12Z is. I would have still liked to see somewhat of a hit.. I'm.still concerned of a more east solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Im sure people ask often but ive never seen it: What does a KU stand for. I know its good but cant figure it out... Kocin Uccellini http://www.press.uch...bookkey=8670148 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18z NAM looks like its going to pull a Scott Norwood....wide right. you know Pete and I are here...no need for cheap shots like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 funny on the NAM (18z). Not a flake anywhere in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 and what that model says at 66 hrs + goes. but what that model says at 66 hrs is what it says. the 18Z nam IS out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 In a best case scenario, this storm has 12/19/2009 written all over it in terms of the distribution of snow for SNE. Late development will minimize impacts over the mid-Atlantic. It is almost comical to watch the model hugging chaos over the past several days. Look at the current system well suppressed over the ocean with the snow shield a good 75-100 miles off the New ENgland/ LI coast. A track over Block Island or Boston is virtually improbable given the blocking present last winter and once again this winter. The pattern remains suppressed and a track anywhere near the Benchmark would be welcomed. I am much more fearful of the SE of the BM solutions than one that comes anywhere near BOS or Block Island. At this point, I-95 to I-195 has a shot at snowfall, but I'd pick Chatham if I had to pick a bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Kocin/Uccellini They made a book about winter storms and there's certain criteria to meet a KU Thank you Ive looked at it online before but for some reason i never could figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What kind of mixing issues are shown on the 12z EURO for eastern MA? With a storm over KBID, I know I can extrapolate a hellava rainstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Will feel good when 12z raobs tomorrow am sample energy in the PNW..need that to help amplify and slow the Southwest US energy, which allows for northern stream near MSP to phase and entire trof to neg tilt and bombo. My concerns about the northern stream vortex about 3 days ago have certainly been solved given vortex retro across canada owing to sick blocking weeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I'm feeling good about having this go a bit east of where the OP prog for 12Z is. Hey Jerry, this one could be one for the record books if the 12z Euro Ensm man verify. Going to be a late night tonight watching the 00z runs along with the radio show to listen to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 With the Nam having 2 lows at 78 and scattered heavy bouts of precipitation, its certainly confused IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 With the Nam having 2 lows at 78 and scattered heavy bouts of precipitation, its certainly confused IMO It's the NAM at 78 hours...it shouldn't be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 With the Nam having 2 lows at 78 and scattered heavy bouts of precipitation, its certainly confused IMO Remember when people said ignore the 18z NAM at long range? Yeah... Worry about the globals who love us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hey Jerry, this one could be one for the record books if the 12z Euro Ensm man verify. Going to be a late night tonight watching the 00z runs along with the radio show to listen to. Glad to hear you are healthy btw! Long time to go, nice to see but it's still 4 days out. The other poster made a great point about blocking. Be a welcome change in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 In a best case scenario, this storm has 12/19/2009 written all over it in terms of the distribution of snow for SNE. Late development will minimize impacts over the mid-Atlantic. It is almost comical to watch the model hugging chaos over the past several days. Look at the current system well suppressed over the ocean with the snow shield a good 75-100 miles off the New ENgland/ LI coast. A track over Block Island or Boston is virtually improbable given the blocking present last winter and once again this winter. The pattern remains suppressed and a track anywhere near the Benchmark would be welcomed. I am much more fearful of the SE of the BM solutions than one that comes anywhere near BOS or Block Island. At this point, I-95 to I-195 has a shot at snowfall, but I'd pick Chatham if I had to pick a bullseye. you could not be more wrong in your analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 With the Nam having 2 lows at 78 and scattered heavy bouts of precipitation, its certainly confused IMO The globals have the sfc low being steered by the vort rounding the base of the negatively tilting trough. The NAM has that, but has the sfc low popping out into the Atlantic on some convectively induced vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 In a best case scenario, this storm has 12/19/2009 written all over it in terms of the distribution of snow for SNE. Late development will minimize impacts over the mid-Atlantic. It is almost comical to watch the model hugging chaos over the past several days. Look at the current system well suppressed over the ocean with the snow shield a good 75-100 miles off the New ENgland/ LI coast. A track over Block Island or Boston is virtually improbable given the blocking present last winter and once again this winter. The pattern remains suppressed and a track anywhere near the Benchmark would be welcomed. I am much more fearful of the SE of the BM solutions than one that comes anywhere near BOS or Block Island. At this point, I-95 to I-195 has a shot at snowfall, but I'd pick Chatham if I had to pick a bullseye. Blocking isn't an issue when the storm involves a partial or full phase with the polar vortex. If there was no merger...then yes the block would show it's ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i would do anything for the euro to verify!! Amazing run for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like I got Ray in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The globals have the sfc low being steered by the vort rounding the base of the negatively tilting trough. The NAM has that, but has the sfc low popping out into the Atlantic on some convectively induced vorts. Its definitely convective feedback but as someone else pointed out, based on its 500mb setup earlier it was probably going to be a miss anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Everybody ready for the stormly 84 hours out hecs by the 18z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Its definitely convective feedback but as someone else pointed out, based on its 500mb setup earlier it was probably going to be a miss anyway. It's just not as sharp at 500... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 haha hey do you have one of those clown maps for the GGEM - I was just tallying that total QPF. Let me get this straight, 4" total spanning a 72 hour historic freakshow. that can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's just not as sharp at 500... While not as sharp at 500 as the 12z NAM, it matches the 12z GFS very well up until about 48hrs, but doesn't amp up nearly as quickly thereafter. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Awesome, Taunton NWS has gone with heavy rain now for the Cape. High of 45f with rain, heavy at times for Monday. THis stinks. We have the storm so far west now that we end up with rain. I think the models correct east some in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is silly reasoning since, using your explanation, the ECM should really "win" since it was first to even suggest this storm. Either way, no model wins. Overall they did a good job suggesting it. Even now this storm is most definitely not a definite hit. Very hard to say what the criteria is for 'winning' in this case, especially when it hasn't verified. Do you think the NFL started hiring more cleanup crews based on the 132hr gfs or not until the euro last night, or even now? If the two models were reversed we'd probably have found a few people slumped over steering wheels in their garage this morning. The smart play is to always go with euro right now so it wins every time, but, perhaps its SW bias did make an appearance here? And the handling of the northern stream was only mediocre I'd say. Although people here were mentioning possible sw bias during days 5-7 when it was ots, no met could confidently say that sw bias was at play, and that forecasts should be based on the GFS. If anyone was, they were rightly called a rip and reader. But hey maybe next time we see another event which seems so entirely dependent on h5 phasing we'll be a fraction more confident. Lets just hope SW bias isn't STILL going, or else people may wind up in garages for the opposite reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's just not as sharp at 500... It keeps doing different funky things. 12z strung the vorticity all out on the downstream side of the trough axis. The 18z has a more focused vort, but it's not that potent...the PAC NW s/w is weaker on the NAM. The globals are really diving that stronger energy into the trough and spawning rapid cyclogenesis off the coast. I think the NAM will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thanks so much Jerry and Paul.....DNS disaster over. This is it....been waitng several years for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Craigslist. Hoping to find something in the upper decks really close to face. Want a $170.00 seat down low? Face value... jk, will probably still be going. Calling my bud Friday to finalize plans. $300 night between ticket, parking, cavorting This should be a fun storm to watch develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is it....been waitng several years for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.