40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run looks horrible...I still think this storm is going to miss NYC, and most of SNE, to the east...despite how much I love snow. There's just a weird feeling I have that this one isn't going to be a KU or even a MECS, but more of a grazing or out to sea solution. I think you will get screwed, but I think I'll do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 is this sht really still happening? can someone give a rundown of models and what they showed today so we can see an overall standing of where we are? Broken down into 0Zs from last night ___ ___ ___ 6z ___ ___ ___ 12z ___ ___ ___ 18z ___ ___ ___ etc? I think this would be good for a lot of us who haven't gotten to look much today I.E. FINALS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 is this sht really still happening? can someone give a rundown of models and what they showed today so we can see an overall standing of where we are? Broken down into 0Zs from last night ___ ___ ___ 6z ___ ___ ___ 12z ___ ___ ___ 18z ___ ___ ___ etc? I think this would be good for a lot of us who haven't gotten to look much today I.E. FINALS Where is the DNS when we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All the models suck. ALL OF THEM. None of them are consistent at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run looks somewhat similar to the 12z UKMET. It tries to do a late capture but its just not quite enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 is this sht really still happening? can someone give a rundown of models and what they showed today so we can see an overall standing of where we are? Broken down into 0Zs from last night ___ ___ ___ 6z ___ ___ ___ 12z ___ ___ ___ 18z ___ ___ ___ etc? I think this would be good for a lot of us who haven't gotten to look much today I.E. FINALS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run looks somewhat similar to the 12z UKMET. It tries to do a late capture but its just not quite enough. Lots of uncertainty for 84 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ http://www.meteo.psu...mski/ewall.html just asking for a helping hand, should have known... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run looks somewhat similar to the 12z UKMET. It tries to do a late capture but its just not quite enough. What did the 12z UKMET show, Will? Did it miss both SNE and the NYC metro? This storm looks a bit like February 25, 1989 to me...definitely a Niña analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Are we panicking over the 18z models?? LOL, C'mon. You got the euro and its ensembles out there. It may go a little east, but the gfs is 50 miles from killing eastern mass ORH-east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Those RAOBs really got the job done, huh? Pretty awful run...even for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Are we panicking over the 18z models?? LOL, C'mon. You got the euro and its ensembles out there. It may go a little east, but the gfs is 50 miles from killing eastern mass ORH-east. I'm not panicked at all, but it is humorous that everything looked great the moment I could no longer log on, then once I could....things went the other way. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What did the 12z UKMET show, Will? Did it miss both SNE and the NYC metro? This storm looks a bit like February 25, 1989 to me...definitely a Niña analog. Ukie showed a miss east initially...but it actually captured the storm late and retrograded it back SW and got eastern New England with decent precip at like 108-120 hours. The 18z GFS doesn't do that latter retrograde, but its initial development looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Amazing how many people are putting stock into 18Z runs, I thought there were smart people here ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Those RAOBs really got the job done, huh? Pretty awful run...even for eastern areas. They did do an 18z launch today? I'm not busting chops, I thought that was the rumor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Amazing how many people are putting stock into 18Z runs, I thought there were smart people here ;-) Im not worried, I think we do fine in Eastern mass, but the point still stands that all of the models are completely and utterly horendous, without exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Those RAOBs really got the job done, huh? Pretty awful run...even for eastern areas. Well know tmw at 12z after they are ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Amazing how many people are putting stock into 18Z runs, I thought there were smart people here ;-) Who put all of their stock into them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 They did do an 18z launch today? I'm not busting chops, I thought that was the rumor. It was sarcasm about the energy getting to the west coast suddenly causing the models to behave. But, they did an 18z sounding at Edwards AFB in So Cal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think you will get screwed, but I think I'll do great. I don't think this is really the type of storm that does that; it's more of a Miller A threat where the whole coastline will get hammered if the southern stream is sharp enough as the 12z ECM showed, and to some extent earlier runs of the GFS. I could see why you're thinking this because of the potential for a late capture/retrograde at 5H, but I think if the southern shortwave comes in flat, the system is already going to develop too far offshore to hit anyone seriously. I basically see this as an all or nothing situation with the only middle ground being a light grazing for the Cape/SE Mass. Ukie showed a miss east initially...but it actually captured the storm late and retrograded it back SW and got eastern New England with decent precip at like 108-120 hours. The 18z GFS doesn't do that latter retrograde, but its initial development looks similar. The 18z GFS also looks weaker with the CCB; the 12z GFS seemed to develop a much more coherent CCB with heavy precipitation, and its development occurred faster. The storm seems much more disorganized on both the 18z NAM and 18z GFS. Do you have any idea why, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still a long ways out, fact is, if 18z showed a hecs most would be estatic, but since it does not its somewhat dismissed, I really dont see the logic in that reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 But, they did an 18z sounding at Edwards AFB in So Cal. There have been a lot of off-hour RAOBs there lately so I'm assuming the launches are for research purposes. It still counts though I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If the 18Z runs showed a HECS I would discount it, if the 18Z showed a miss I would discount it. Personally to me the 18Z NAM and GFS runs are garbage and have been for a long time. That is just my opinion :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 18z GFS also looks weaker with the CCB; the 12z GFS seemed to develop a much more coherent CCB with heavy precipitation, and its development occurred faster. The storm seems much more disorganized on both the 18z NAM and 18z GFS. Do you have any idea why, Will? 5H is much less amplified so the storm doesn't respond until the upper levels go nuts...so that's why it looks weaker initially, because the upper level support is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The other thing intriguing about this storm is the stall/trowal potential. Even the gfs whiff has quite the trowal on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still a long ways out, fact is, if 18z showed a hecs most would be estatic, but since it does not its somewhat dismissed, I really dont see the logic in that reasoning. Its pretty hard to justify taking the 18z NCEP models over the Euro and its ensembles...I'd put a very little bit of stock in the 18z run, but only just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS has flip flopped on every single run in a major way for days now. Every 6 hours is a dramatically different solution. ECM ensembles which include 51 members vs the GFS 12 (I think). Yet every 6 hours we had a dramatically different run (maybe except for 12/18 yesterday). GFS is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If the 18Z runs showed a HECS I would discount it, if the 18Z showed a miss I would discount it. Personally to me the 18Z NAM and GFS runs are garbage and have been for a long time. That is just my opinion :-) I don't think the off hour runs are that bad..especially getting within 72 hrs of an event. Every run can give you a burp run from 72-96 hrs out. Nothing beats hard core sampling, but I don't think off hour runs are horrible within 3 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS has flip flopped on every single run in a major way for days now. Every 6 hours is a dramatically different solution. ECM ensembles which include 51 members vs the GFS 12 (I think). Yet every 6 hours we had a dramatically different run (maybe except for 12/18 yesterday). GFS is unbelievable. I'd be pretty confident in saying the ensemble mean will look good as will the 00z OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't think the off hour runs are that bad..especially getting within 72 hrs of an event. Every run can give you a burp run from 72-96 hrs out. Nothing beats hard core sampling, but I don't think off hour runs are horrible within 3 days or so. However, if the model can't handle certain features right...well you could have large jumps. These runs are suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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