December 19th-20 Storm Thread II

[Damage In Tolland]

While we obviously don't know the outcome...I will say this:

The euro may have had the wrong solution for a while, but you have to admire how consistent it is. The GFS is the king of waffles....I mean east-west-east-west..it's everywhere..lol. At least the euro may have been consistently wrong, but perhaps locks into the right idea and stays that way. So yes, maybe the GFS has the right idea, but it's so dam inconsistent sometimes. We'll know in 72 hrs.

Which is exactly why I went into my tirade against it last week. It offers no help in forecasting. It adds more confusion than it does help. We wipe our asses with stuff better than that model

[DomNH]

Which is exactly why I went into my tirade against it last week. It offers no help in forecasting. It adds more confusion than it does help. We wipe our asses with stuff better than that model

Last I checked, Charmin Extra Soft had a big hit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

For those having DNS issues, the Level 3's are fine..change your DNS servers to 4.2.2.2 and 4.2.2.3 or if on Comcast use the non DNS helper addresses.

Hey, give it a shot, but you're prob a little too old for their taste.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Haven't you guys learned anything over the years? When a big snow event is close..the American models lose it about 3-4 days out...then as we get within about 2 days and less they latch back onto it..The Euro has it and won;t lose it.

I don't understand why people do this when the NAM and GFS suddenly lose a storm.

We are getting a huge storm, so the 18z runs must be off.

[CT Rain]

We are getting a huge storm, so the 18z runs must be off.

I think a whiff is still a possibility, unfortunately.

[dendrite]

Wow...I didn't know the resolution difference was that drastic.

Well the ECMWF folks made big strides. That's close to the NAM's resolution now. The ~28km of the GFS isn't bad in a synoptic sense. It's better than the GGEM.

[CoastalWx]

Which is exactly why I went into my tirade against it last week. It offers no help in forecasting. It adds more confusion than it does help. We wipe our asses with stuff better than that model

Well one should never forecast what a specific op run is saying 3-4+ days out. That's why we have ensembles and probability. It's usually fine during the time that I care about which is 24-36 hrs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think a whiff is still a possibility, unfortunately.

I agree a whiff is still possible for you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well one should never forecast what a specific op run is saying 3-4+ days out. That's why we have ensembles and probability. It's usually fine during the time that I care about which is 24-36 hrs.

It almost seems like the GFS is following the EURO's trends....like it's a day or so behind it.

[Kbosch]

I love the confidence even with the disclaimer at the end...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL

MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE 40 DEGREE NORTH LATITUDE/70 DEGREE WEST

LONGITUDE BENCH MARK SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACK NEAR CAPE COD BY

LATE MONDAY.

BASED ON THIS TRACK...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE TRI-

STATE COULD RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY

NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL

FROM NEW YORK CITY ON EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...STRONG

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE

STORM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY EXISTING THAT FAR EASTERN AREAS COULD

END UP MIXING WITH RAIN...OR THAT THE STORM COULD HEAD FARTHER OUT

TO SEA...SPARING THE REGION THE BULK OF IT.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The GFS has 20. The EC has 50.

A little comparison of the EC ENS and GEFS...

EC ENS: T399 (~45km) from 0-240hr and 62 vertical levels

GEFS: T190 (~85km) and 28.

Op runs

EC: T1279 (~14km) and 91

GFS: T574 (~28km) and 64

http://www.capecodweather.net/weather-library/1336-get-to-know-the-weather-models

If u want more info.

[Damage In Tolland]

JB FTW

Worst case would not only close the Massachusetts and Connecticut turnpikes, but the Jersey, too. That is on the table. And I think you are seeing why I don't flip and flop back and forth with model runs. In fact, until all the players get onto the field from the Plains east, this is not really a done deal, but last night's GFS was simply the model having phase problems. Once it caught on, and it will still correct west a bit more... it figured it out. It's a matter of different runs seeing things different ways. You, though, as a weather enthusiast or beyond, should be focused on the whys enough to understand that until tomorrow, model runs out to sea should not phase you, since it's a matter of phasing.

[CoastalWx]

Nice Phil.

[DavisStraight]

Harvey Leonard says hes 75% sure we get a biggie, I like those odds at this stage of the game.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, GFS ensembles are like 200 miles east of 12z.

[ORH_wxman]

Harvey Leonard says hes 75% sure we get a biggie, I like those odds at this stage of the game.

Always inspires confidence when he starts getting bullish...been one of the best in the business around here for decades.

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL, GFS ensembles are like 200 miles east of 12z.

Shocker lol

[weathafella]

If Harv's bullish, its on.

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL, GFS ensembles are like 200 miles east of 12z.

Doesn't look like it to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Always inspires confidence when he starts getting bullish...been one of the best in the business around here for decades.

Absolutely.

Hopefully John gets a chance to pick his brain over the course of the next day or so, but I'm pretty sure his rationale is the EURO and it's ENS.

[dendrite]

http://www.capecodwe...-weather-models

If u want more info.

Nice...looks like you have more updates over me. I was just estimating the mid-lat resolutions too. Looks like the EC ENS got an upgrade. T639 out to D10 isn't too shabby.

[#NoPoles]

perhaps, if all goes well, we should have another G2G Sat night...

[wxeyeNH]

Harvey Leonard says hes 75% sure we get a biggie, I like those odds at this stage of the game.

Yes, channel 5 lead story was the storm. After seeing the 18Z runs I would definately not be so bullish. The models have been all over the place. I still don't have a good feeling about this storm. I will get totally invested if the American models come back west at 0Z and the Euro holds serve but I truely believe that the trend is our friend and both the NAM and GFS were went east. Best to do other things this evening and not think about this storm and then take a look at the 0Z runs.

[CT Rain]

I agree a whiff is still possible for you.

lol I think it's possible for you too.

[CoastalWx]

Here is an interesting stat:

Of all the analogs over the last month or so that have been shown on the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day progs...not one has show any mdt or strong Nina from the 80's or 90's. All have been from the 50's and 60's. I just thought this was an interesting stat.

[radarman]

The GFS is the king of waffles....I mean east-west-east-west..it's everywhere..lol. At least the euro may have been consistently wrong, but perhaps locks into the right idea and stays that way. So yes, maybe the GFS has the right idea, but it's so dam inconsistent sometimes.

It offers no help in forecasting. It adds more confusion than it does help.

LOL, GFS ensembles are like 200 miles east of 12z.

I cried when they shot old yeller but later on I realized it was for the best.

[Damage In Tolland]

lol I think it's possible for you too.

Ray is more likely to mix and change to rain than whiff

[CT Rain]

Ray is more likely to mix and change to rain than whiff

You'll likely downslope as well

[CoastalWx]

Doesn't look like it to me.

Near 00z Monday it looks like a 150-200 miles difference. The spread makes it much closer, but I was looking at where the ensemble mean places the low center. It was just for comical purposes anyways.

[Damage In Tolland]

You'll likely downslope as well

Moon visible thru the clouds in the valley? while we rip S+ to your NE