Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The heck with the east coast....I'm moving to Sierra Nevada land! That be storm 2 in case anyone is interested, what a bunch of lunatics we are. I wonder if CTRAIN AND 40/70 should be banned until Sat just so the JUJU comes back, they hit the floor and the balloon just popped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 18z UKMET was posted in the 18z model thread..goes out to 72 hours...but would probably be a good hit for eastern areas. Well Crazy Uncle Ukie is behaving. We locked up the liquor cabinet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll text you when the Euro goes 300 miles east btw I did not get my TEXT last night at 2:30 am to tell me the EURO run rocked!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 18z UKMET was posted in the 18z model thread..goes out to 72 hours...but would probably be a good hit for eastern areas. lol...I forgot we even had that at Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Since Kev is slacking on his quote duty.... Both the 18Z NAM and GFS has the low development to far east of the hyper-baroclinic field. It is like the ocean will not add sensible heating to the surrounding atmosphere. For this reason and many other I feel a solution more like the ECMWF and Gem may be more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The trough on the Ukie is a bit shallow, but the vortmax is strong enough its trying to tug the sfc low a bit closer...so yeah, I think that would probably be a pretty good hit for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I thk the UK would be a hair east of the 00z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do I keep reading about no HP to our North, I see anything from a 1018 to a 1024, what are they looking for a 1040? plenty enough . All parameters for major East Coast cyclogenesis are in place, look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 btw I did not get my TEXT last night at 2:30 am to tell me the EURO run rocked!! I passed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 found this link for those that didn't already know what times the model runs are. The times are in Central time though. http://snowday.community.officelive.com/computermodels.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The trough on the Ukie is a bit shallow, but the vortmax is strong enough its trying to tug the sfc low a bit closer...so yeah, I think that would probably be a pretty good hit for eastern areas. Here's the match with GFS 12Z at the same time for the prog... UNCLE GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That's not bad at all Jerry. The low is tucked in along the gulf stream wall as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That's not bad at all Jerry. The low is tucked in along the gulf stream wall as well. We're feeling it brother. I just realized I'm 64 and shouldn't shovel the entire neighborhood should we get 12+. But I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Here's the match with GFS 12Z at the same time for the prog... UNCLE GFS GFS Trough looks much sharper than the Ukie. Who know what that means....We have to come out of 0Z in a good position. If we get through this run then I'd lock it in....not feeling the lock yet, too much craziness. What an odd year. I go to NYC on Saturday-Monday when I am scheduled to fly to Florida. Was feeling good about NYC after Euro, but I dunno...If it hits hard I'll make sure we miss the flight to Florida and try to find a way back up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this is a sign or not but was just running some errands and drove past a guy in a ski mask running up a street clutching a bag with someone chasing after him. Gotta love Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this is a sign or not but was just running some errands and drove past a guy in a ski mask running up a street clutching a bag with someone chasing after him. Gotta love Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this is a sign or not but was just running some errands and drove past a guy in a ski mask running up a street clutching a bag with someone chasing after him. Gotta love Hartford. Get a gun sounds dangerous in Hartford . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEEPSTUFF Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this is a sign or not but was just running some errands and drove past a guy in a ski mask running up a street clutching a bag with someone chasing after him. Gotta love Hartford. I don't post often, but dam that's the funniest thing i have read in a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this is a sign or not but was just running some errands and drove past a guy in a ski mask running up a street clutching a bag with someone chasing after him. Gotta love Hartford. Thought you were down the street from me...he he...pretty bad all around me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this is a sign or not but was just running some errands and drove past a guy in a ski mask running up a street clutching a bag with someone chasing after him. Gotta love Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 FWIW alb changed us to likely pops here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Upton at 7:38...some of you may want to write this down. Ahem. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- 18Z GFS BEING FURTHER OUT TO SEA DOES NOT CHANGE THINKING ON POTENTIAL STORM. JUST SHOWS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. 12Z MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z CMC GLOBAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN REPLACED THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A WARM CORE AT 850 HPA WITH ITS LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...APPARENTLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...SO ITS LOW IS PROBABLY A TAD ON THE STRONG SIDE...AND A TAD TOO FAR WEST...IN ADDITION TO ITS QUESTIONABLE THERMAL FIELDS...SO PREFERRED NOT TO USE IT DURING THE CORE OF THE POTENTIAL STORM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM NYC EAST. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MIGHT HAVE TRENDED TOO FAR WEST...SO DO NOT WANT TO PUT THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA IN THE MAIN THREAT AREA QUITE YET...THOUGH IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THAT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A 500 HPA TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SHOULD REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO AROUND CAPE COD BY LATE MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH...HELPING TO TAP INTO RE-ENFORCING COLD AIR...WITH A MAINLY N TO NW WIND FLOW WITH THIS STORM...AS A RESULT...ONCE AGAIN DISCARDING THE 12Z ECMWF...AM EXPECTING ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME. IF MIXED PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR THOUGH IT WOULD BE OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND POSSIBLY SE CT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY...FOR NOW HOLDING TO NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH...BUT THERE EXACT STRENGTH IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED. BASED ON THE ABOVE...WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM NYC EAST...SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY FROM SW TO NE. THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE STORM...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM COULD LINGER OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUING POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS. And... THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SECOND STORM...POSSIBLY EVEN CUTOFF...TRACKING TO THE S IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW TUE NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TO REFLECT BEST POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CASE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 This was the 18z GFS from Monday. Not bad compared to today's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wiz? If he was holding a 40 I would have said probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just sayin.......... Todays euro 5H Oh My Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this is a sign or not but was just running some errands and drove past a guy in a ski mask running up a street clutching a bag with someone chasing after him. Gotta love Hartford. He probably needed milk/eggs/bread for the storm and was short.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 weather channel starting to blow this thing up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just sayin.......... Todays euro 5H Oh My Feb 78 better than those..and Gibbs 66 shifted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Will, what types of things will you go over tonight on the radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 weather channel starting to blow this thing up a bit. Cantore to Scituate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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