snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 you got me to look edit: lock it in Yep, was just looking at this. Much stronger look to it than what the 12z GFS is showing I realize superstition is bunk, but for the hell of it, let's try to resist the urge of creating a new storm thread until maybe 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Dang 988mb superstorm. I have to drive I-80 on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I realize superstition is bunk, but for the hell of it, let's try to resist the urge of creating a new storm thread until maybe 5-6 days out. Not that i mind the recent storm threads (due to the lack of other activity) but now that we have a few out there, I def agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So at what time will the world end that day?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Too bad weather isn't like the menu at McDonald's. You go in, look at it and pick what you want and then have it delivered right away. This would be a good one to order up for many in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Probably won't be modeled to anything near that in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Just a reminder, no graphics from pay sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Just a reminder, no graphics from pay sites. Whoops... Yeah. Pay sites. Lets go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Probably won't be modeled to anything near that in a few days. Stronger and way northwest. Rain for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Supposed to fly out to Seattle next Friday and go figure the Euro shows a decent storm at that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Big storm for someone and backside LES galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Despite the Euro/GEM and other models showing some more action, NIU continues to remain "grinchy" lol... After that, the next system to affect us may bring us scattered areas of very light rain around Thursday...maybe mixed with snow flurries. But, that looks trivial, and if anything happened to stick, which looks seriously doubtful at this point, temperatures significantly above freezing will melt it almost immediately. Thus, there is now a 99% chance of a "green" Christmas this year. The models are showing a major rain or snow around the 28th, but that's just from two model runs, and 13 days out...the "believe it when I see it" warning is in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Despite the Euro/GEM and other models showing some more action, NIU continues to remain "grinchy" lol... After that, the next system to affect us may bring us scattered areas of very light rain around Thursday...maybe mixed with snow flurries. But, that looks trivial, and if anything happened to stick, which looks seriously doubtful at this point, temperatures significantly above freezing will melt it almost immediately. Thus, there is now a 99% chance of a "green" Christmas this year. The models are showing a major rain or snow around the 28th, but that's just from two model runs, and 13 days out...the "believe it when I see it" warning is in effect. That's the grinchiest outlook I've seen yet! And way too early to call it already. Inaccuweather is probably sugar coating their white Chrismas potential. Saying 50% chance for this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This December pattern reminds me alot of a November pattern. Winter is off to a quite late start this year in many respects. Ya. Notice how the "gales" and "witches" are coming into play all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z GFS jumped a bit towards the Euro with a stronger D6-7 storm through the upper midwest and great lakes. No thread yet but i think if the 12z models tomorrow show something it might be worthy. 12z Euro is a blizzard for IA/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 12z GFS reminded me a lot of December 1993 with its arctic front post Christmas. Unfortunately the 18z has backed off somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It is so tempting to want to be onboard with a storm like the Euro, GEM, and many of the GFS Ensembles are implicating. It looks to be five to six days out, which isn't fantasy land, but it isn't the highest confidence outlook to say the least. The Euro Ensemble track looked good for the Western Great Lakes up to about Green Bay, with a low 1000s mb low going from WC Illinois to EC Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This has GOT to mean something for this subforum... well that's what we said about the last two systems though so who knows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This has GOT to mean something for this subforum... well that's what we said about the last two systems though so who knows: That +10 line will slowly climb north, don't worry. Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 18z GFS jumped a bit towards the Euro with a stronger D6-7 storm through the upper midwest and great lakes. No thread yet but i think if the 12z models tomorrow show something it might be worthy. 12z Euro is a blizzard for IA/WI. This, anyone who creates a thread before tomorrow night should be thoroughly shunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This, anyone who creates a thread before tomorrow night should be thoroughly shunned. Could just make it an official Lakes/OV rule that no threads be started until day5. Hoosier could then delete threads started for day6+. Anything beyond day5 should just be incorporated into the medium/long range disco anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Good to see winter like temps on the area map above. Long term looks to be taking a turn to the better. Perhaps Santa will bring something white for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I like this idea...models have been soooooo jumpy..it gets exhausting to read all those posts when storm still in fantasyland and disappearing every other run.. Could just make it an official Lakes/OV rule that no threads be started until day5. Hoosier could then delete threads started for day6+. Anything beyond day5 should just be incorporated into the medium/long range disco anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Could just make it an official Lakes/OV rule that no threads be started until day5. Hoosier could then delete threads started for day6+. Anything beyond day5 should just be incorporated into the medium/long range disco anyway. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Or just ban the people for awhile who start the threads at 8 days out with an image of one op run and that's it. So annoying. Atleast state some meteorological reasoning to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Few comments on recent discussion in this thread... ~Channel 7 in Detroit 2 days ago had a graphic that said the statistical chance of a White Christmas in Detroit is 50%, but in 2012 we have a 10% chance of a White Christmas. That is absolute garbage to say such a thing with Christmas nearly 2 weeks out. And it would be just as much garbage if there was snow on the ground now and it said we had a 90% chance of a White Christmas. ~I vote for the 5-day-and-under storm thread rule as well....ALL winter, not just until someone gets hit good. ~Thursday is looking interesting. Very interesting for the midwest. Regardless of where the L tracks it appears a lot of folks could see some snow and wind out of this as it looks like probably the best cold front to slice through the region since February 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I don't mind a thread as far out as like 144 hours/6 days maybe 7 if the first post features more than a picture of an op model and popcorn, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Few comments on recent discussion in this thread... ~Channel 7 in Detroit 2 days ago had a graphic that said the statistical chance of a White Christmas in Detroit is 50%, but in 2012 we have a 10% chance of a White Christmas. That is absolute garbage to say such a thing with Christmas nearly 2 weeks out. And it would be just as much garbage if there was snow on the ground now and it said we had a 90% chance of a White Christmas. ~I vote for the 5-day-and-under storm thread rule as well....ALL winter, not just until someone gets hit good. ~Thursday is looking interesting. Very interesting for the midwest. Regardless of where the L tracks it appears a lot of folks could see some snow and wind out of this as it looks like probably the best cold front to slice through the region since February 10th. With respect to Channel 7's prediction, they're right. Climatologically speaking, you're correct. But for this Christmas, based on pattern recognition, it's safe to say our chances of a White Christmas are below normal (note, a below normal chance of a White Christmas doesn't mean they're won't be a White Christmas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 With respect to Channel 7's prediction, they're right. Climatologically speaking, you're correct. But for this Christmas, based on pattern recognition, it's safe to say our chances of a White Christmas are below normal (note, a below normal chance of a White Christmas doesn't mean they're won't be a White Christmas). yea, 10-20% sounds pretty reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 FWIW I think it's fine for threads inside 7 days to be made. Outside of 7 days... not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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