Ian Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 To echo mitch...winter pattern! that's mitch's "line" though. what about the last month? the pattern wont stay the same thru winter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 that's mitch's "line" though. what about the last month? the pattern wont stay the same thru winter either. But...it's such a good line. It is simple in its consistency, nuance be damned. (Look at model runs with heavy precip on the coast too easily picks at the scab of 12/26/10, but, yes, I was being tongue-in-cheek generally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 This. I know tihngs look bad when I start touting NOGAPS in the winter. Here's a tip: Don't ever f**king look at the NOGAPS. If you don't see it, you can't hug it. Same goes for the DGEX, JMA, KMA, etc. etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here's a tip: Don't ever f**king look at the NOGAPS. If you don't see it, you can't hug it. Same goes for the DGEX, JMA, KMA, etc. etc. etc. Yea, what you're saying sounds good and all but I'll look at all of them and just keep my DGEX and JMA hugging in the closet. Ji on the other hand..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here's a tip: Don't ever f**king look at the NOGAPS. If you don't see it, you can't hug it. Same goes for the DGEX, JMA, KMA, etc. etc. etc. Easier said than done for a weenie. I don't go out of my way to read them b/c they are crap but if they are posted on here, I'm hugging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 18Z GFS soaks you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 THE GUIDANCE PLACES MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD IN A REGIME OF DEEP LYR SRLY FLOW...WITH THE REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE UPR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE STG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP LYR ASCENT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF H25 RRQ JET DYNAMICS...WITH FORCING FURTHER AIDED BY EMBEDDED SHRTWV IMPULSES CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP MEAN SRLY FLOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z NAM...THE MDL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST ONE SFC WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDDAY FRI. THIS WAVE LIFTS NNEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SAT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW WAVE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THAT WILL ALSO TRACK INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SAT. ALL THE WHILE...DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED NWD INTO THIS STREAM OF DEEP SRLY FLOW...WITH THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF TROPICAL MSTR/HIGH PWATS THAT SHOULD EXTEND NWD FROM THE SWRN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NWD UP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE ERN SEABOARD. HENCE...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF MDT TO HVY RAINS...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED ESP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT INCLUSIVE OF THE FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED LOCALLY. TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z/SUN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES LOCALLY. HPC QPF FAVORED A NON-NAM CONSENSUS SOLN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Got about 45 drops so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Got about 45 drops so far The guidance looks much less impressive than yesterday as the upper low never gets south of us. I got more than 40 drops while fishing. I had to put on rain gear for 15 minutes or so down on Mattawoman Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 The guidance looks much less impressive than yesterday as the upper low never gets south of us. I got more than 40 drops while fishing. I had to put on rain gear for 15 minutes or so down on Mattawoman Creek. I havent paid that much attention to specifics I guess. HPC numbers have gone up though I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 not a drop out here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Nice light rain early this morning. .12" in the bucket nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Nice light rain early this morning. .12" in the bucket nearby. .27 here in Simpsonsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 2 Inches out here in Ballenger Creek area of Frederick. We got some very heavy downpours here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Looks like the chance for steady rain and then heavy rain kicks in this afternoon, and really in effect for tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I'll admit, I haven't been following this event too much. So, here comes a weenie IMBY question - I'll be in Gettysburg, PA tomorrow and Chambersburg, PA on Saturday... will my day trip tomorrow be ruined? I think (from what I have seen) it looks like most of the heavier stuff will remain east, so I may be on the western fringe of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Looks like about a quarter of an inch from yesterday and overnight so far....lots o shrooms in the backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 up north of here hpc took away like 5" of rain with the new update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 up north of here hpc took away like 5" of rain with the new update It's still pretty much up in the air. one difference is the gfs no longer closes off a low to our south so there is no strong surface wave to pump moisture into the stationary front. That doesn't mean there willbe no heavy rain just that the potential for widespread heavy rain is less and any real heavy rain would be more localized. However, I noticed that in the longer range the euro does dig the upper low southeast and gets it south of our latitude which would complicate the forecast. Luckily, I no longer do QPF for living. It's hard enough in the day 1 and 2 time ranges. Out to day 5 its really even more of a pull it out of your nether regions deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 yay FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1144 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016-VAZ042-052>055-222345- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0018.110923T1000Z-110923T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH 1144 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL...CHARLES... FREDERICK MD...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...FAIRFAX...LOUDOUN...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK AND STAFFORD. * FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH MAY FALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 From the 0600 Day 2 SPC OTLK ...CAROLINAS TO DELMARVA... IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE EVEN LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN THE GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF POSSIBLE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT COULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL INFLUENCES THAT ARE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY MOIST BUT GENERALLY LOW-CAPE AIR MASS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. IF POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-HEATING CAN DEVELOP...LOCALLY GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED. FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS BEING DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...OR PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION...SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO EVENT. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY SUGGESTS IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO REFRAIN FROM OVER FORECASTING THIS LOW-POTENTIAL SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 yay FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1144 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016-VAZ042-052>055-222345- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0018.110923T1000Z-110923T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH 1144 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL...CHARLES... FREDERICK MD...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...FAIRFAX...LOUDOUN...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK AND STAFFORD. * FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH MAY FALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING. I'm not surprised, still lots of water in the ground so it wouldn't take much to have some streams overflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 With any luck - banding will set up well east of Dale City. We can't take any more rain for at least two months What's bad about all this late summer/early autumn moisture - We'll get waterboarded with excessive rain this autumn, then winter will be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Funny, actually not, how the "sunny" days forecast keeps getting pushed into the future. Started the week, Sunday I think, with this upcoming weekend looking pretty good. IIRC, this Sunday's forecast was to be sunny and nice temps. Now the next "sunny" day forecast is next Thursday. Maybe they should just go with.....there will be another clear day in the future, we're just not sure when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Funny, actually not, how the "sunny" days forecast keeps getting pushed into the future. Started the week, Sunday I think, with this upcoming weekend looking pretty good. IIRC, this Sunday's forecast was to be sunny and nice temps. Now the next "sunny" day forecast is next Thursday. Maybe they should just go with.....there will be another clear day in the future, we're just not sure when. good sunset weather.. saw it but was not in a great spot and only had cell. this shot is sweet tho http://t.co/X10DFo46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 ATM radar is unimpressive but there is still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 the nam destroys us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 the nam destroys us Wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 the nam destroys us Well if that happens...expect to see more flash flood emergencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 the nam destroys us DC/BWI and north gets rocked. The firehose setup has been switching east and west with every run of the NAM so far, so where it sets up, is anybody's guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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