HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 no clue how to dress for this wedding coming up on saturday...this weather sucks donkey cojones... Plan on dripping humidity! Sleeveless dress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hopefully disorganized, the WV loop tells a lot. Orographic areas could be swamped. Dryslut brought up a good point, training. Tough call, like I said earlier, could be a big deal over a weeks time. Hopefully the Met community is at the top of their game, not having a Sox moment,lol lol the odds of something major are definitely lower than 50/50 so I think Kevin's call for NBD have the best chance of verifying (in fact NBD works 9 times out of 10 which is where I get my snow forecast philosophy from) but a warm season ULL cut-off like that always raises concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hopefully disorganized, the WV loop tells a lot. Orographic areas could be swamped. Dryslut brought up a good point, training. Tough call, like I said earlier, could be a big deal over a weeks time. Hopefully the Met community is at the top of their game, not having a Sox moment,lol I think the word has gotten out that there could be some heavy rain...both from TV and BOX, but that's all I would say at this point. No reason to start sandbagging yet...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think the word has gotten out that there could be some heavy rain...both from TV and BOX, but that's all I would say at this point. No reason to start sandbagging yet...lol. We are still water logged here. The water table is maxed. Substantial rain would be trouble quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Plan on dripping humidity! Sleeveless dress? crap...going to be an absolutely miserable day for a wedding...besides the fact that if the area gets any more heavy rain, perhaps the guests won't be able to get to the wedding...it's in Marlboro, VT on RT 9...i think RT 9 was damaged from the last deluge we had...should be interesting times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 crap...going to be an absolutely miserable day for a wedding...besides the fact that if the area gets any more heavy rain, perhaps the guests won't be able to get to the wedding...it's in Marlboro, VT on RT 9...i think RT 9 was damaged from the last deluge we had...should be interesting times! Greenfield gets similar weather to that part of the N. Ct Valley. I've seen forecast 1-2" qpf end up being spotty showers with breaks of sun. Of course it could go the other way too. The valley can be a rain magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think the word has gotten out that there could be some heavy rain...both from TV and BOX, but that's all I would say at this point. No reason to start sandbagging yet...lol. I mean next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I mean next week. Yeah next week too. I mean there is only so much you can say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Yeah next week too. I mean there is only so much you can say right now. Absolutely, just hope it's Meh, bring on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 lol the odds of something major are definitely lower than 50/50 so I think Kevin's call for NBD have the best chance of verifying (in fact NBD works 9 times out of 10 which is where I get my snow forecast philosophy from) but a warm season ULL cut-off like that always raises concerns. The Sultan of Sandbags (SOS) can turn 2-3 inches of rain into a catostrophic flood with one wave of his wand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 After the rain tomorrow, that ULL retrogrades west and seems to put an end to any prolonged rain. At least that how it seems. Still might see periods of rain, but it might be NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 After the rain tomorrow, that ULL retrogrades west and seems to put an end to any prolonged rain. At least that how it seems. Still might see periods of rain, but it might be NBD. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 AMOUT It's gonna pour in spots tomorrow and Saturday, and still needs to be monitored though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 It's gonna pour in spots tomorrow and Saturday, and still needs to be monitored though. If we can get 1/2 a day out of Saturday, I'll be happy. Neighborhood yard sale going on plus soccer. Don't want a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 3/10" fell early this AM. Came down pretty heavy just before sunrise for a brief period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I should probably rethink next week. It's going to depend on how the ULL behaves. There are lots of moving parts...even perhaps what Ophelia does and how it may try to build ridging. Still could be prolonged rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 .06" from a light shower early. OT. Just installed a new Vantage Pro 2( http://www.weatherli...user/stormsurf/ ) and need to know if I should enter the official ASOS "rain to date"(yearly)amount or just leave it as is? I should think that the fact that I have it linked to the net, I should at least have the yearly rain close to the airport. No? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I should probably rethink next week. It's going to depend on how the ULL behaves. There are lots of moving parts...even perhaps what Ophelia does and how it may try to build ridging. Still could be prolonged rain. HPC is gung ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 new HPC 5day map slices the rain totals by 60% for most areas. Goes from 7.5 inches for Long Island to 2-3 inches now...still seems like alot of uncertaintly here. Even today looks dry for most areas looking at latest radar - http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 not on their new map! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif HPC is gung ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 You guys give HPC 5 day QPF maps too much credit, they change like the wind, and the 5 day verification score is low. We should be focusing on the pattern at hand with a potential stalled out ULL to our WSW. The ingrediants are on the table for a major excessive rainfall event, complicated by still nearly saturated ground. SREF probs are high for excessive rainfall on Friday and Saturday, especially over the mid-atlantic and southern NE. The model consensus is for the I-95 corridor to take the brunt of this, and hopefully the 12z suit will make the picture clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 SREFs and GEFs still look like trouble to me You've looked closer than I have. I spent yesterday fishing for bass and had a good day. Anytime a front stalls, it argues for really watching things close. The 00Z euro looks more ominous than the gfs which still looked wet enough to cause some problems given all the rain everyone has had lately. The 3 SD v-wind anomaly is certainly cause for concern. I should have looked a little harder at the guidance before posting earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 You've looked closer than I have. I spent yesterday fishing for bass and had a good day. Anytime a front stalls, it argues for really watching things close. The 00Z euro looks more ominous than the gfs which still looked wet enough to cause some problems given all the rain everyone has had lately. The 3 SD v-wind anomaly is certainly cause for concern. I should have looked a little harder at the guidance before posting earlier. I think you get a free pass, Your expertise is greatly appreciated Wes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 You've looked closer than I have. I spent yesterday fishing for bass and had a good day. Anytime a front stalls, it argues for really watching things close. The 00Z euro looks more ominous than the gfs which still looked wet enough to cause some problems given all the rain everyone has had lately. The 3 SD v-wind anomaly is certainly cause for concern. I should have looked a little harder at the guidance before posting earlier. Did not look today but seeing HPC back off means they probably did too, catch anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think you get a free pass, Your expertise is greatly appreciated Wes... It's still up in the air for how wet the system will be. The euro looks more threatening to me than the gfs. I wish I could see it's QPF or at least had some idea of its max amounts over New England. Forecasting precipitation amounts so far in advance is almost like trying to take a beer away from Ray, yeah you can do it, but wow, it sure is tough. Slow moving fronts are always a big concern and with the really wet soil conditions, I suspect that most forecast offices will be pretty proactive concerning possible flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It's still up in the air for how wet the system will be. The euro looks more threatening to me than the gfs. I wish I could see it's QPF or at least had some idea of its max amounts over New England. Forecasting precipitation amounts so far in advance is almost like trying to take a beer away from Ray, yeah you can do it, but wow, it sure is tough. Slow moving fronts are always a big concern and with the really wet soil conditions, I suspect that most forecast offices will be pretty proactive concerning possible flash flooding. Wow on the Ray stuff, funny. Models are swaying on QPF placement as usual. The SREFS still look juicy, GEFS backed off some although there is still some pretty good -SD. Timing of individual SW's and convective elements will be key. Surface destabilization with sun also will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It's still up in the air for how wet the system will be. The euro looks more threatening to me than the gfs. I wish I could see it's QPF or at least had some idea of its max amounts over New England. Forecasting precipitation amounts so far in advance is almost like trying to take a beer away from Ray, yeah you can do it, but wow, it sure is tough. Slow moving fronts are always a big concern and with the really wet soil conditions, I suspect that most forecast offices will be pretty proactive concerning possible flash flooding. The 0z euro @ 150hr had max amounts of 2.5-3" from Hatteras north into CT with lesser amounts further north of 2" and lower as you get into Northern Maine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It's still up in the air for how wet the system will be. The euro looks more threatening to me than the gfs. I wish I could see it's QPF or at least had some idea of its max amounts over New England. Forecasting precipitation amounts so far in advance is almost like trying to take a beer away from Ray, yeah you can do it, but wow, it sure is tough. Slow moving fronts are always a big concern and with the really wet soil conditions, I suspect that most forecast offices will be pretty proactive concerning possible flash flooding. Friday and Saturday certainly look wet, but it's really anomalous (at least imo) to have such a strong closed ULL actually retrograde to KDSM, this time of year. It seems to me that once it does move west, the airmass sort of dries out a bit and the pipeline of moisture weakens a bit. Also the big low to the north of New England perhaps causes enough wnw flow to limit the tropical transport north...especially Monday and Tuesday. Afterwards, the ULL starts to wobble east and the plume once again gets reinvigorated just off shore. That might be when any weak low might form and facilitate more heavy rains into SNE. Like you said, it's certainly not clear cut, but worth watching I suppose. The NAM has been trying to generate a weak warm core system over the waters well south of SNE this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Wow on the Ray stuff, funny. Models are swaying on QPF placement as usual. The SREFS still look juicy, GEFS backed off some although there is still some pretty good -SD. Timing of individual SW's and convective elements will be key. Surface destabilization with sun also will be interesting. Juicy, but how much are we talking? 2-3" wont really do much around SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 the really wet soil conditions Glad you mentioned that... We received some rain this morning. Not a huge amount, but I was surprised to see how much water was on the roads and on lawns. Areas prone to ponding will really need to be watched if the precip exceeds the HPC's expectations because water tables are very high right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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