Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 You're trying too hard. 3-4"+ through next Thur per 00z Goofus. Nothing of the sort..It's just my opinion. Still think most of the heavy rains ends up over NE PA up into Ny state..with maybe the 2nd low dropping some rais over SE New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Nothing of the sort..It's just my opinion. Still think most of the heavy rains ends up over NE PA up into Ny state..with maybe the 2nd low dropping some rais over SE New Eng that would probably be the worst thing that could happen. i think axis is further east but srefs like the area you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 that would probably be the worst thing that could happen. i think axis is further east but srefs like the area you are talking about. They seem to want to stall the front there and have the low ride up and along it. The other models stall it further east. It might be someting where the heavy rains sets up over NJ/NYC/MRG and then slowly moves east. through Friday night and Saturday. The front should then stall and another low develop early to mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 They seem to want to stall the front there and have the low ride up and along it. The other models stall it further east. It might be someting where the heavy rains sets up over NJ/NYC/MRG and then slowly moves east. through Friday night and Saturday. The front should then stall and another low develop early to mid week. yeah. hopefully it doesn't end up that bad - i.e. we don't end up with training downpours over the areas that have been crushed the last month or so - but there's good reason for concern, i think. the pwat anomalies came up a bit on the 00z gefs...a little hint at +3sd. certainly some red flags for hydro concerns...if not from round 1 then perhaps round 2 early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 yeah. hopefully it doesn't end up that bad - i.e. we don't end up with training downpours over the areas that have been crushed the last month or so - but there's good reason for concern, i think. the pwat anomalies came up a bit on the 00z gefs...a little hint at +3sd. certainly some red flags for hydro concerns...if not from round 1 then perhaps round 2 early next week. Certainly hope NE PA/WMA VT is spared, incredible devastation in some of those areas. The Euro seems to want to really rip with the second wave, the rogue development sticks in the back of my mind. Some big tides coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 12z GFS is a tad wet. Multiple waves of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Yeah the QPF pattern on it is all jagged looking which probably means it may be on the convective side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Yeah the QPF pattern on it is all jagged looking which probably means it may be on the convective side. I agree. Axis is still jumping around too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Yeah the QPF pattern on it is all jagged looking which probably means it may be on the convective side. i think e pa/nj/se ny/western new england are going to get slammed with a convective band on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 i think e pa/nj/se ny/western new england are going to get slammed with a convective band on friday AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 i think e pa/nj/se ny/western new england are going to get slammed with a convective band on friday Yeah I think it may initiate there first and then move east. That seems to be the trend, as the GFS yesterday was farther west. Tough to tell with these bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Yeah I think it may initiate there first and then move east. That seems to be the trend, as the GFS yesterday was farther west. Tough to tell with these bands. i noted this in the mid atlantic forum... all the meso models have a low coming up from the tropics while the gfs doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 AMOUT AMOUTEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 AMOUTEK Nice appearance on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Quick word: there is an area of disturbed weather between 65 and 70W at the latitude of the Bahamas. I haven't the time to check the cyclone phase at FSU ...they may not have it assigned at that, but the 12Z NAM has a cohesive vortmax origined in this vicinity, and gets it b-lined on SNE after it turns the corner E of the Carolinas and shoots north within the converyor between the OV low and the Atlantic ridge. I saw that on the 500mb panels and figured it good in the minimum for a whack of rain and sure enough, the sfc envolution depicts that slamming in 70-84 hours out. Lot's to follow there... Someone mentioned meso and that's a good plan, because such a feature may slip between the GFS grid to some degree, particularly if it remains lesser coherent in the flow albeit real nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Nice appearance on TWC. I had no idea someone told me. I guess they fed that story to TWC last night. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I had no idea someone told me. I guess they fed that story to TWC last night. lol I just looked up, and they you were..talking about fungus on leaves...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Euro forms a separate zone of rainfall for eastern areas after the initial stuff in W SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Euro forms a separate zone of rainfall for eastern areas after the initial stuff in W SNE. Looks like it keeps the heaviest precip up in new england over SE mass and the cape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I just looked up, and they you were..talking about fungus on leaves...lol. theres a Fungus amoungus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Euro forms a separate zone of rainfall for eastern areas after the initial stuff in W SNE. Looks like it keeps the heaviest precip up in new england over SE mass and the cape.. There are through 156 4 separate bouts with pretty heavy rain. That rogue stuff Tip refers to seems to be garnering a little support also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here are the top analogs on CIPS at hr 84 on the 12z GFS: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/stats.php?reg=NP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here are the top analogs on CIPS at hr 84 on the 12z GFS: http://www.eas.slu.e...12&sort=500HGHT http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2001/us0925.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here are the top analogs on CIPS at hr 84 on the 12z GFS: http://www.eas.slu.e...12&sort=500HGHT It's interesting to see that this has similarities to the event we had at the beginning of last October. Although the cut-off occurred farther south but it also looks like it wasn't as potent as the GFS is depicting this one will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...2001/us0925.php Is that a notorious flooding event? I'm not familiar with that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Is that a notorious flooding event? I'm not familiar with that one... Not sure if it was notorious but there was some localized flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Is that a notorious flooding event? I'm not familiar with that one... Look under weather impacts when you click your CLIPS analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I wonder if this little swirl will have a say later this weekend into early next week, cute little thang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Looks like it keeps the heaviest precip up in new england over SE mass and the cape.. That could save the western areas from the worst damaged. Still kind of worried about the back forth amounts. It could still be very close for a big hit for western newengland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 That could save the western areas from the worst damaged. Still kind of worried about the back forth amounts. It could still be very close for a big hit for western newengland. I think as this whole thing gets organized and a weak s/w approaches, it will probably hit the PHL/NYC and western mass areas pretty good at first. Then what could happen, is that the whole thing moves and then stalls near eastern mass as another low develops. So basically like Will said, maybe 2 areas of max QPF. These +RA events are always hard to predict, especially when you have little weak lows developing and a potential subtropical connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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