Mr Torchey Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I think as this whole thing gets organized and a weak s/w approaches, it will probably hit the PHL/NYC and western mass areas pretty good at first. Then what could happen, is that the whole thing moves and then stalls near eastern mass as another low develops. So basically like Will said, maybe 2 areas of max QPF. These +RA events are always hard to predict, especially when you have little weak lows developing and a potential subtropical connection. Scooter, what are your thoughts on a couple of these naked swirls getting caught up in the storng southerly flow and enhancing rain, or even something hybrid forming to the south and racing up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 wth is the 18z nam doing only out to 18 and already has 1 to 2 inches of qpf for eastern areas doesnt make sense at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Scooter, what are your thoughts on a couple of these naked swirls getting caught up in the storng southerly flow and enhancing rain, or even something hybrid forming to the south and racing up the coast? I'm not sure how these little swirls will do much of anything. I suppose they could enhance some moisture, but it's not really a clear concise low right now. I would just wait until it gets a little more organized, but I suppose it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I'm not sure how these little swirls will do much of anything. I suppose they could enhance some moisture, but it's not really a clear concise low right now. I would just wait until it gets a little more organized, but I suppose it's worth watching. NE of the islands is a potential, got to watch carefully, with this ULL pattern things can go boom in a hurry. Look at the fetch developing on WV. Mesomodels are really getting interesting with these subtle features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Haha, Wow, the 18z NAM develops a little convective plume S of LI and drills it into 2” worth of rain out of nowhere – 12z had Nadda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I wonder if this little swirl will have a say later this weekend into early next week, cute little thang. It's Invest99 - TPC's been poo-pooing it's chances all week... It's been trackable since the Cape Verdis interestingly enough... There's a whole sub-class of TC's - I believe - that are not recognized, or are, but they deside not to label any mention to for practical reasons. These little gyres are real though, they are low pressure, and they have warm cores, and they are everywhere going about their innoccuous existances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 kbox starting to take the flood potential seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 It's Invest99 - TPC's been poo-pooing it's chances all week... It's been trackable since the Cape Verdis interestingly enough... There's a whole sub-class of TC's - I believe - that are not recognized, or are, but they deside not to label any mention to for practical reasons. These little gyres are real though, they are low pressure, and they have warm cores, and they are everywhere going about their innoccuous existances.. I was looking at it this morning tip, seems to have lost its convection today, but this and the disturbance northeast of the Bahamas will only enhance rainfall as they are picked up in the southerly flow. 99 has been fun to watch the last couple days, tiny little guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Wow, saturday looks downright tropical. Showers with a high near 80 out this way. Swampy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 no clue how to dress for this wedding coming up on saturday...this weather sucks donkey cojones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 no clue how to dress for this wedding coming up on saturday...this weather sucks donkey cojones... Just wear a dress that lets em hang out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Just wear a dress that lets em hang out already did that...i need new material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Gfs looks meh .. just humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Neither the GFS or Euro look as interesting as the earlier runs. Tahts the problem with longer range quantitative precip forecasts. Day 1 and 2 forecasts are not always that good. Day 4 and 5 have problems since it doesn't take that much difference in the handling of the shorter wavelengths to mess things up. Lets hope the later guidance holds to its less impressive look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Neither the GFS or Euro look as interesting as the earlier runs. Tahts the problem with longer range quantitative precip forecasts. Day 1 and 2 forecasts are not always that good. Day 4 and 5 have problems since it doesn't take that much difference in the handling of the shorter wavelengths to mess things up. Lets hope the later guidance holds to its less impressive look. The 00z HPC 5 DAY QPF map http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Neither the GFS or Euro look as interesting as the earlier runs. Tahts the problem with longer range quantitative precip forecasts. Day 1 and 2 forecasts are not always that good. Day 4 and 5 have problems since it doesn't take that much difference in the handling of the shorter wavelengths to mess things up. Lets hope the later guidance holds to its less impressive look. SREFs and GEFs still look like trouble to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Surprised no one is going nuts over the 18z GFS! It weakens the incoming short wave next week to the point that it can't kick out the upper low. It sits to our southwest through October 3rd. Has the making for a number of very interesting possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 SREFs and GEFs still look like trouble to me Models are still back and forth. Euro precip probs looked interesting, but nothing really screams something >5" QPF just yet. Going to have to wait and see, especially for the evolution of the pattern for early to mid week...next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Surprised no one is going nuts over the 18z GFS! It weakens the incoming short wave next week to the point that it can't kick out the upper low. It sits to our southwest through October 3rd. Has the making for a number of very interesting possibilities explain further.... 'cane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Models are still back and forth. Euro precip probs looked interesting, but nothing really screams something >5" QPF just yet. Going to have to wait and see, especially for the evolution of the pattern for early to mid week...next week. My concern would be several inches of rain next couple days... followed by a prolific QPF producer early/mid next week. Don't really see that modeled but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 My concern would be several inches of rain next couple days... followed by a prolific QPF producer early/mid next week. Don't really see that modeled but the potential is there. Yeah potential is there with the stalled ULL and any potential low riding along the front. It's one of those things that are practically a nowcast thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Yeah potential is there with the stalled ULL and any potential low riding along the front. It's one of those things that are practically a nowcast thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I know they shouldn't be trusted, but the Hi-res models don't show much QPF over the next 48 hours and they are usually gung-ho with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 My concern would be several inches of rain next couple days... followed by a prolific QPF producer early/mid next week. Don't really see that modeled but the potential is there. Yeah potential is there with the stalled ULL and any potential low riding along the front. It's one of those things that are practically a nowcast thing. You guys I am sure are keenly aware what a stalled ULL to our west can do. Ryans concern is very valid, not Meh at all. Hopefully we get lucky, but not feeling it. The year of the absurd is in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 You guys I am sure are keenly aware what a stalled ULL to our west can do. Ryans concern is very valid, not Meh at all. Hopefully we get lucky, but not feeling it. The year of the absurd is in the back of my mind. Stalled cut offs this time of year to our southwest are always a big red flag. It's the timing and location of surges of tropical moisture, synoptic and mesoscale lift that make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 My thoughts mimic ryans as well. Maybe we can salvage a dry Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Looks like there will be convection involved which will enhance qpf over some areas complicating matters even more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Stalled cut offs this time of year to our southwest are always a big red flag. It's the timing and location of surges of tropical moisture, synoptic and mesoscale lift that make all the difference. It seems like models, esp the GFS, are having trouble progging the weak disturbances that enhance things like LLJs etc. The GFS op looks like a mess, but I don't buy the disorganized look. Seems like perhaps some feedback? This potential event isn't a total classic with the ingredients coming together like the central PA flood event, but it only takes 1 or 2 periods of crazy 12hr rains to screw things up. My guess is Friday into Saturday is going to dump on someone perhaps 2-3"+ for some...and then Monday into Tuesday could be another round. I'm just throwing out scenarios. It's possible the 18z GFS could be right too and it ends up being a little more disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It seems like models, esp the GFS, are having trouble progging the weak disturbances that enhance things like LLJs etc. The GFS op looks like a mess, but I don't buy the disorganized look. Seems like perhaps some feedback? This potential event isn't a total classic with the ingredients coming together like the central PA flood event, but it only takes 1 or 2 periods of crazy 12hr rains to screw things up. My guess is Friday into Saturday is going to dump on someone perhaps 2-3"+ for some...and then Monday into Tuesday could be another round. I'm just throwing out scenarios. It's possible the 18z GFS could be right too and it ends up being a little more disorganized. Hopefully disorganized, the WV loop tells a lot. Orographic areas could be swamped. Dryslut brought up a good point, training. Tough call, like I said earlier, could be a big deal over a weeks time. Hopefully the Met community is at the top of their game, not having a Sox moment,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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