snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I enjoy a good hydro event. As much as I don't like to see the damage, the power of water is humbling. Being by the Merrimack, I love hydro events.. staring at the Merrimack after '06 was probably the best sites I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Anyone else think this might end up having more bark than bite for SNE? certainly could be. it doesn't have every element you look for but certainly enough to raise concern - especially given how much rain has fallen over the northeast in the last 30-45 days. gfs pwats get pretty darn high late in the week and then again early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Being by the Merrimack, I love hydro events.. staring at the Merrimack after '06 was probably the best sites I've seen Any pics from that flooding event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 certainly could be. it doesn't have every element you look for but certainly enough to raise concern - especially given how much rain has fallen over the northeast in the last 30-45 days. gfs pwats get pretty darn high late in the week and then again early next week. I think pwats had to with precipitable water or something.. but what exactly is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I think pwats had to with precipitable water or something.. but what exactly is it? it's basically at one point in time/space taking all of the available water vertically in the column and raining it out...how much would that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 it's basically at one point in time/space taking all of the available water vertically in the column and raining it out...how much would that would be. Two more.. What's in measured in? And what's usually the scale for it? 0-10.0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 OMG, '06 was the top echelon of flooding. Don't use that analog..lol. It's early, can't really say much more other than someone is likely getting substantial rain. Probably closer to October 2005 anyway. With a little Irene and Lee thrown in too. NBD </:weenie:> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Two more.. What's in measured in? And what's usually the scale for it? 0-10.0? well it's similar to looking at precip, so the scale is ~0 to whatever. could be cm, mm, in...but you'll also see kg/m2. around here, it'll basically always be something like .05 to 2.5 winter to summer. you get up over 1.5 and that starts getting high depending on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Wes, Used to Be, the premier QPF guy in the US, maybe the world took the time to post here. Ut oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I was getting ready to post something on it. The surface low forecast to develop in the longer ranges to the south and a front hung up over your area is a prescription for heavy rain with flood potential. Especially with such a slow moving upper trough involved. Anyone else think this might end up having more bark than bite for SNE? Kev or Wes? Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 certainly could be. it doesn't have every element you look for but certainly enough to raise concern - especially given how much rain has fallen over the northeast in the last 30-45 days. gfs pwats get pretty darn high late in the week and then again early next week. I can see even without every thing looking great for heavy rain that more then a few folks will be on top of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Kev or Wes? Hmmmm How did I know the Sultan of Sandbags would chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 How did I know the Sultan of Sandbags would chime in Lol he posted before you? Agree with you though, fog looks off the table, visibility will be 1/4 mile in rain not fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Wes, Used to Be, the premier QPF guy in the US, maybe the world took the time to post here. Ut oh. The good thing is that the heaviest rain could stay just offshore. Usually if the upper low closes off that far south, someone get hammered but were still talking days in advance and the GFS and euro still could be wrong. Many of the ensembles keep the deep pw plume off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 NAM looks primed at 84 for heavy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 NAM looks primed at 84 for heavy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The good thing is that the heaviest rain could stay just offshore. Usually if the upper low closes off that far south, someone get hammered but were still talking days in advance and the GFS and euro still could be wrong. Many of the ensembles keep the deep pw plume off the coast. Or it could hammer us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Or it could hammer us Yes very nuch and if I was to guess this early in the game, I would guess the sern Ne would get hammered but it's only a very early guess with much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The good thing is that the heaviest rain could stay just offshore. Usually if the upper low closes off that far south, someone get hammered but were still talking days in advance and the GFS and euro still could be wrong. Many of the ensembles keep the deep pw plume off the coast. I saw that too. I also saw the euro precip probs, and they are bullish from the Delmarva through SNE Friday and Saturday, but back off later in the weekend before increasing some more next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I saw that too. I also saw the euro precip probs, and they are bullish from the Delmarva through SNE Friday and Saturday, but back off later in the weekend before increasing some more next week. Tahnks for the word about the euro ensembles, I don't see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Tahnks for the word about the euro ensembles, I don't see them. I'm going by the 12 hr probs that I can see. I don't get to see the good data that we can get from the GEFS, but they look similar to the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Tahnks for the word about the euro ensembles, I don't see them. Yea GEFs are not all that gung Ho but started moving quickly towards a Euro ENS consensus , like you said early but to be watched for sure. ENE could handle it better than west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yea GEFs are not all that gung Ho but started moving quickly towards a Euro ENS consensus , like you said early but to be watched for sure. ENE could handle it better than west. As is the case with most things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Lol, I haven't been in New England's region in a while and was wondering if anyone was thinking about flooding... Yeah, I think it's an interesting synoptic general look, no doubt! Details details details will dictate what comes of it - such as axis placement and so forth. Anytime we have a prolonged -2SD negative anomaly in the mid levels parked over ~ WV and have days of S flow potential along and just off the Eastern Seaboad, there are options for interesting weather. Flood, Bahama bombers.... or, sometimes in that set up you get a the Bahama blue skies with a quasi-tropical sounding transport originating deep in the SW Atlantic Basin. Getting kind of late for that though - usually that's a late July to early September thing. In any event, could see S-N training rains where conveyor sets up. "Weather" that is off-shore or inland is too soon to tell for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Lol, I haven't been in New England's region in a while and was wondering if anyone was thinking about flooding... Yeah, I think it's an interesting synoptic general look, no doubt! Details details details will dictate what comes of it - such as axis placement and so forth. Anytime we have a prolonged -2SD negative anomaly in the mid levels parked over ~ WV and have days of S flow potential along and just off the Eastern Seaboad, there are options for interesting weather. Flood, Bahama bombers.... or, sometimes in that set up you get a the Bahama blue skies with a quasi-tropical sounding transport originating deep in the SW Atlantic Basin. Getting kind of late for that though - usually that's a late July to early September thing. In any event, could see S-N training rains where conveyor sets up. "Weather" that is off-shore or inland is too soon to tell for certain. When tip, Wes, and Scott are posting in mid Sept you know it could be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I haven't had a chance to really look at this yet all that much, but given the time frame, still a lot of time to figure if this ends up being a huge deal or not. The ULL to the west is definitely a bit ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 When tip, Wes, and Scott are posting in mid Sept you know it could be big Don't try to hype this up...it still could be no biggie. But, it is something interesting in an otherwise boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Hydro speaking, long duration fetch on New Moon tides, some rivers are running 2-300 % above median flow.Hope nothing rogue develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The GFS does make sense to keep the heavy rain along the front from the Delmarva through western mass on Friday. That's if it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Don't try to hype this up...it still could be no biggie. But, it is something interesting in an otherwise boring pattern. I was just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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