Baroclinic Zone Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 What an ugly 12z GFS. At least we're not missing much besides the enjoyable cool fall wx. Vitamin D deficiency by Oct. at this rate. Looks like the GFS has finally latched onto what the Euro has been showing. Oodles of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Looks like the GFS has finally latched onto what the Euro has been showing. Oodles of rain. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Brutal I was getting ready to post something on it. The surface low forecast to develop in the longer ranges to the south and a front hung up over your area is a prescription for heavy rain with flood potential. Especially with such a slow moving upper trough involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Looks like the GFS has finally latched onto what the Euro has been showing. Oodles of rain. Yeah it wasn't showing much earlier, but the key players such as a stalled boundary and strong ULL are there, so you have to watch the potential. Any weak low forming along the front may enhance the rain in a narrow area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yeah it wasn't showing much earlier, but the key players such as a stalled boundary and strong ULL are there, so you have to watch the potential. Any weak low forming along the front may enhance the rain in a narrow area too. Any analogs to this potential setup? For fall storms instead of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Any analogs to this potential setup? For fall storms instead of winter I don't know of any specific analogs to match this. Just something to keep an eye on I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The GFS ensembles look pretty wet for late this week and this weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I don't know of any specific analogs to match this. Just something to keep an eye on I guess. It looks like a winter like setup as the ULL bombs when it gets to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I don't know of any specific analogs to match this. Just something to keep an eye on I guess. May '06 featured a similar UL over the OV / stalled surface front However it looks like there was a little more blocking in that regime whereas this is more of a true cutoff from the jet ripping zonally over Canada. Can't really ever forecast something of that magnitude, but there are some similarities. I remember it mostly for the fact that we didn't see the sun for a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 May '06 featured a similar UL over the OV / stalled surface front However it looks like there was a little more blocking in that regime whereas this is more of a true cutoff from the jet ripping zonally over Canada. Can't really ever forecast something of that magnitude, but there are some similarities. I remember it mostly for the fact that we didn't see the sun for a long period of time. May 2006 was also the biggest flooding of the Merrimack in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 May '06 featured a similar UL over the OV / stalled surface front However it looks like there was a little more blocking in that regime whereas this is more of a true cutoff from the jet ripping zonally over Canada. Can't really ever forecast something of that magnitude, but there are some similarities. I remember it mostly for the fact that we didn't see the sun for a long period of time. Yeah there are some similarities with the biggest difference this time around to our northeast. It might not hang around as much either this time around if the flow becomes more nw over New England, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 May 2006 was also the biggest flooding of the Merrimack in a long time I'd guess this winds up more progressive with nothing forcing it to stay in place, and the rains a bit lighter. Still miserable though. Yeah there are some similarities with the biggest difference this time around to our northeast. It might not hang around as much either this time around if the flow becomes more nw over New England, but we'll see. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 someone is going to get a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 probably the berks eastern newyork and parts of pa and northwest nj.. Spot amounts to 6 inches in those areas by early next week.. a general 1 to 3 for most of southern new england i think someone is going to get a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 someone is going to get a lot of rain. not here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The thing that might be different with this event, is that the front this time around hangs over SNE instead of eastern NY state..at least right now. I haven't looked at things like U/V wind anomalies (basically anomalous onshore flow from the east or south) or PWAT anomalies, but the pattern seems like a +RA event for someone. Euro has bouts of heavy rain from Thursday to Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The thing that might be different with this event, is that the front this time around hangs over SNE instead of eastern NY state..at least right now. I haven't looked at things like U/V wind anomalies (basically anomalous onshore flow from the east or south) or PWAT anomalies, but the pattern seems like a +RA event for someone. Euro has bouts of heavy rain from Thursday to Tuesday night. already pretty decent on the ensembles - especially given the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The thing that might be different with this event, is that the front this time around hangs over SNE instead of eastern NY state..at least right now. I haven't looked at things like U/V wind anomalies (basically anomalous onshore flow from the east or south) or PWAT anomalies, but the pattern seems like a +RA event for someone. Euro has bouts of heavy rain from Thursday to Tuesday night. Potential river flooding event like '06 you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 already pretty decent on the ensembles - especially given the time frame. Yeah I just looked. Not a strong llj, but we are still a little ways out like you said. PWATS look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 not even close Potential river flooding event like '06 you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Potential river flooding event like '06 you think? OMG, '06 was the top echelon of flooding. Don't use that analog..lol. It's early, can't really say much more other than someone is likely getting substantial rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Anyone else think this might end up having more bark than bite for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 not here.. Think I'd rather have the heavy precip events in January. I dunno, ymmv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Anyone else think this might end up having more bark than bite for SNE? It's far enough out that the axis might shift around...perhaps further west, but I guess it is worth talking about since we are in an otherwise boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 It's far enough out that the axis might shift around...perhaps further west, but I guess it is worth talking about since we are in an otherwise boring pattern. Yeah I guess it's fun to talk about..But its just so hard to get excited about rain..It's just so boring. I'd much rather talk about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yeah I guess it's fun to talk about..But its just so hard to get excited about rain..It's just so boring. I'd much rather talk about temps. I thought you were into +RA and flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yeah I guess it's fun to talk about..But its just so hard to get excited about rain..It's just so boring. I'd much rather talk about temps. I enjoy a good hydro event. As much as I don't like to see the damage, the power of water is humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Models are also hinting at a few waves of rain, which may allow for an equal opportunity for SNE. Perhaps one wave gets western areas and the other eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I thought you were into +RA and flooding? LOL...heavy rain and flooding are by far my least favorite aspects of wx. I'd rather talk about backdoor fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 LOL...heavy rain and flooding are by far my least favorite aspects of wx. I'd rather talk about backdoor fronts I thought you liked wild wx. Some hobbyist you are. What a poser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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