Baroclinic Zone Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Scooter mentioned the possibility of some rains later this week. so I thought I'd break off a discussion on this. Interesting setup. Looks like a huge closed ULL develops and gets pinched off from the main flow, allowing for a moist southerly flow ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Right now, it's not terribly organized as depicted by some models...especially the GFS, but a strong ULL and stalled front can easily dump on someone if the dynamics are there. There also might be another follow up low early next week if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Right now, it's not terribly organized as depicted by some models...especially the GFS, but a strong ULL and stalled front can easily dump on someone if the dynamics are there. There also might be another follow up low early next week if the GFS is right. That ULL is like a sit and spin on the models. Basically stationary for days over the midwest. Definitely unsettled weather for us late this week into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 My guess is the heaviest rains are once again west of us or at least up in GC on west. Climo for these events with a stalled , humid ULL to our west and a building Bermuda high usually means Jersey/Eastern PA up into Ny state get the heaviest stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Euro dumps on SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Euro dumps on SNE. How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Euro dumps on SNE. Heavy upslope snow days 8-10 in NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 How much? 3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Freak will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 If we had something in the tropics things could get interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 but unfortunately it doesnt look like there will be anything If we had something in the tropics things could get interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 If we had something in the tropics things could get interesting.... Yea just a classic ULL setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 My guess is the heaviest rains are once again west of us or at least up in GC on west. Climo for these events with a stalled , humid ULL to our west and a building Bermuda high usually means Jersey/Eastern PA up into Ny state get the heaviest stuff just what they need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Meh LC and Craig Allen pimping it big time tonight on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Not looking too good for sure esp for Berkshires,Greens,Taconics, Catskills and S'rn A'dacks Warm Season Cut-off lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Still doesn't look like any particularly heavy rains in SNE. Most falls to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Euro still gives us a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Still doesn't look like any particularly heavy rains in SNE. Most falls to our west. That's what the 06z GFS shows right now, which does makes sense when the front is hung up there, but the euro also has like a warm conveyor belt of moisture moving north.There also might be a follow up lowearly next week as that ULL approaches and another s/w moves around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 That's what the 06z GFS shows right now, which does makes sense when the front is hung up there, but the euro also has like a warm conveyor belt of moisture moving north.There also might be a follow up lowearly next week as that ULL approaches and another s/w moves around it. Two rain maxima, to the west and another plume off the ocean into buzzards bay and north, if this works out as planned, some sunny breaks, with impressive humidity. Wet times, but some breaks as well, and very summer like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Still doesn't look like any particularly heavy rains in SNE. Most falls to our west. Euro still gives us a ton of rain. That's what the 06z GFS shows right now, which does makes sense when the front is hung up there, but the euro also has like a warm conveyor belt of moisture moving north.There also might be a follow up lowearly next week as that ULL approaches and another s/w moves around it. Two rain maxima, to the west and another plume off the ocean into buzzards bay and north, if this works out as planned, some sunny breaks, with impressive humidity. Wet times, but some breaks as well, and very summer like. Great, cloudy rainy. Summer like? If you like drizzle and fog will be splendid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Great, cloudy rainy. Summer like? If you like drizzle and fog will be splendid. Dont see much fog with screaming sw/southerly flow here Steve, expect plenty of sunny breaks as well, we can look back on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Dont see much fog with screaming sw/southerly flow here Steve, expect plenty of sunny breaks as well, we can look back on Sunday. Wet, screaming surface winds? Wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Great, cloudy rainy. Summer like? If you like drizzle and fog will be splendid. Drizzle and fog?? on a sw flow..there will be plenty of breaks in the rain..and i'd guess Joe is right with sunny periods..there's no east componet to this upcoming disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 It's freaking pouring here.. doesn't look too bad on radar but it's a good moderate rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Drizzle and fog?? on a sw flow..there will be plenty of breaks in the rain..and i'd guess Joe is right with sunny periods..there's no east componet to this upcoming disaster Coastal forecast Wednesday: A slight chance of showers after 3pm. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday: A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Coastal forecast Wednesday: A slight chance of showers after 3pm. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday: A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%. OMG Steve..I never thought I'd see you revert to this over pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 OMG Steve..I never thought I'd see you revert to this over pattern recognition. Kev, high dews, slight winds, cooler SSTs, fog and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 What an ugly 12z GFS. At least we're not missing much besides the enjoyable cool fall wx. Vitamin D deficiency by Oct. at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 What an ugly 12z GFS. At least we're not missing much besides the enjoyable cool fall wx. Vitamin D deficiency by Oct. at this rate. No sun from now til next Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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