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AI knew the Chesco COOPs are included in the SE PA climate division but did not feel it material enough to change the statistical fact that the raw data at Chesco was cooling the same as the surrounding stations so again no need for further cooling. Plus with all those AM TOB readings at Coatesville and West Chester why didn't NCEI apply some warming adjustments? Again only non-stop chilling adjustments.

That is shocking

Lets try again.

I hear ya, hoping for the same. Latest HRRR loves that 4-6pm timeframe for a juicy line to come through. I got .19" over the weekend but have 5.8" for the month.

Man that’s some extremely heavy rain just to my west. Maybe some hail? DBZ thru the roof.

That SE quad is pretty solid on radar now. Not surprised by recon, this probably gets bumped to 50-55 Kts at 11. I guess the question is in the face of 25 kts of shear, how close is this to its ceiling? Maybe 60kts later today?

ready for some mid summer lake effect rain

Do we want to put the obs, etc. in this thread today, or the severe wx thread? I vote for here.

Well it can’t get any cooler with lower dews. Only way to go in Aug is up.

Ripping up here as storms train through. I've already blown past an inch and counting just in the last 20-25 minutes. Frequent thunder and lightening.

Risk for severe weather went from a 2 to 3. Yikes. I have somewhere to be a 5pm and hope I can get home before any rough stuff, but seems I could be driving in it. At least I don't have far to go. Weather Story from NWS Philadelphia/Mt Holly

Hoping for rain but not much else. I only received 0.09" over the weekend and with a dry spell inbound I'm hoping for something appreciable today.

WB 12Z HRRR thru today.

My mistake Larry. Sorry. Still, I contend the AN forecast in 23/24 from the Cfs2 was not bad as it was on the correct side of normal for the east+ and got warmer as the season approached.

Clouds. Our most common failure mode. Hope we can clear out today.

Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.

Without going into a competing long response, I frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.

Had a decent tiny thunderstorm around 3 am that popped up. Wasn't really expecting any rain

Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest. I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.

The wind is already blasting onshore at jones beach, so we are going to have instability issues here. .

Its really looking cool and wet the next couple weeks. The Euro remains below average through early August after a few more days of heat.

a few peeks of sun out here north of Winchester but not much yet. Is that garbage out in Northern Ohio supposed to be our main show?

1300z SPC OTLK has moved the ENH southern line south to RIC... was near EZF on 06z outlook

Yeah 11z hrrrr seems like a winning scenario for most everyone

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... A broad area of 40-50-kt mid-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a large-scale trough amplifies and shifts across the northeastern CONUS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across the Ohio Valley and along a pre-frontal trough over the Mid-Atlantic. In the base of the trough, a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moving from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic may also serve as a focus for convective development. Severe thunderstorm potential could increase relatively early today across parts of Ohio into Pennsylvania and western New York. Diurnal heating within cloud breaks, combined with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints, will support at least moderate surface-based instability across the broad pre-frontal warm sector. The most favorable overlap of this instability and 40-50 kt of effective shear is expected from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, where a mix of organized clusters and supercells should evolve and spread eastward through the day. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, though severe hail will also be possible with any initial/sustained supercells. Additionally, a gradually strengthening and expanding 30-kt low-level jet will contribute to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and a few tornadoes may occur. This supercell related-tornado potential may focus along the warm front into parts of the Northeast, and with semi-discrete development later today focusing along the lee trough/edge of higher terrain, although low-level shear/SRH will be moderate in most of the open warm sector as well.