All Activity

First warm blob, now cold blob, next it will be NEUTRAL blob, and they will find an issue/problem w/ it!

A two-day total of 2.06 inches. Getting that much rain without a tropical system is always welcome. Lots of CTG lightning and loud Thunder too. Lasted longer last night though. Im glad to have gotten this which the grass and trees, plants were thrilled. This was a shot from the employee lot at work as the storms were moving into Eastern Durham/Western Wake Counties

Let there be light!!!!!! I set my ac to 63, took a long shower and now I'm attempting to get hyperthermia Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Dvorak CI is back up to 7.0 which is 140 kt, after being down 5.5 last night. 7.0 would normally assign 140 kt, but since the eye is so large and a bit ragged, JTWC went w/ 130 kt, which is reasonable. The eye pressure may be as low now as it was when Bavi peaked at 155 kt, however, tightness of the inner core and eye size are paramount. After a couple of ERCs, the overall size of the storm expands and inner core tightness is less (overall power of the storm is basically the same, just spread out more). Also, a slow gain in latitude is increasing Coriolis, and this results in a gradual decrease in tangential winds speeds over time. It's one reason why you rarely see pinhole eyes N of 30N. Eye size is challenge, It depends on if you use IR or VIS, and within IR, what color table you use! Attached is Bavi's eye currently using EIR, BDIR (Dvorak), and VIS. I get 55 nm, 40 nm, and 30 nm for a diameter, respectively! Notice the difference between EIR and BDIR, The BDIR shows the stadium bowl eye structure better than the EIR.

Like the prerequisite 70F on Grinchmas eve

Feels like its been a hot minute since we have had a stormy summer. Really digging this season so far.

2.60” event total

High of 95. Picked up only .03". Looks like a very good chance of storms tomorrow.

If my weather station is correct, we had over 5” here on the Worcester/Auburn line. Amazing how much the ground has just soaked all of that up. .

Was refreshing down at the water. My powerboat died so I’m probably getting a sailboat this week. Looking forward to getting back out there in the elements

For all intents and purposes, this is the truth. Concerning hot wx, it wasn't so long ago when it was 90+ in New England, they would just say, "a great beach day or BBQ evening!" Now, "stay indoors and cower in fear b/c it is so dangerous outside!" You see how inane that is from just a daily living POV. Yes, you take precautions, but don't let it ruin your day/plans -- or LIFE! Being put in a constant state of fear/alert, that's not "living," that's "existing!" Don't get me wrong, I don't like harping about all this and want to avoid the negative, but at the same time, I feel for the public and up and coming mets and wx enthusiasts that either have no context/perspective or just can't figure out what is what, or who is keeping it real, and who is just off the rails hype, and everyone/everything in between! I know how I would feel if I was a newb and up and coming these days. For those of us that have been around for awhile, we've all been there! Most of the public just wants the basic what, when, and where for wx, at least in real time and for practical daily use. The how and why are secondary or irrelevant! And ppl I speak to that are not mets, most really appreciate the based and straightforward fcst and wx reasoning. And they like to learn about why this or why that b/c they all have seen many forms of of wx, and when the big stuff happens and makes a huge impression on them, they wonder, "what the heck caused that!?" And they all have big storm memories like weenies, it is just more latent/passive, but when you bring an event up, the interest surfaces quickly! Now for mets and wx enthusiasts, we of course want to know the how and why as well, and that's a good thing. But the challenge is for many is just plain information overload and sorting it all out. There is lot of good, solid, and accurate info out there, but also a lot of nonsense and crap. It's funny back in the day (pre-Internet), wx info, esp. for a weenie, was not easy to come by. You had the local news and your wx radio, and then TWC by 1982. And then *any* wx book/magazine you could find at the bookstore or the library (there were not that many, at least compared to the 90s and later)! And the occasional TV special on wx (NOVA on PBS was really good for this). That was about it! Now, it's the other extreme. TMI and not enough time. One can actually get stressed out trying to follow and keep up just for all the models alone we have now (CoastalWx?, WxWiz? LOL)! And then you have social media and mobile devices. Sometimes now, I actually *welcome* a quiet period for wx so I can catch up w/ other things!

1.01” brings the 3-day and MTD total to 4.04” here

Nice batch of rain moving in for the night. Hope another 1-2" falls across the Northland. Many still need it.

After 10 o’clock on the east side of Columbia and it is delightfully pouring outside right now, it looks like there’s a cell on radar right above the area, and growing a bit.

2.5" to 3" reports around me. My rain gauge is dead. Crazy that there really aren't any puddles. Soaked in.

Got to see the Big Boy come through Lebanon today. Incredible event for all the senses.

Not this year. Atlantic is closed.

Just stepped outside-for the first time in a long time every insect in the trees is in singing mating season Its a total change Spectacular

Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W.

This weather is throwing me off. It has felt like that first "shock to the system" cool/damp system we tend to get near the end of August, the type that seems to say "sure, it will warm up again in a few days, but I'm right around the corner" that instinctively flips me to fall mode a few weeks before I want to - at least I tell myself that. It happening in early July is messing with me. Where's the pumpkin spice?

Yeap. This team is much less talented than they were made out to be. Lots of AAA mashers that weren't able to replicate the same success against MLB pitching. And most are below average defensively. Pair that with Free agent signings like Tyler O'Neil and stop gap starters like Charlie Morton and Chris Bassett and this is what you get.

FMH winner

If we can get a solid EML (elevated mixed layer) to advect in from the Plains/Midwest, things could be really potent. Big hot ridges to our W w/ WNW or NW flow aloft here is about the only way this can be done. One thing w/ EMLs is that overnight tstms are much more common and more intense. Diurnal heating means little w/ you have lots of elevated CAPE. It's why there are so many overnight intense MCSs in the Plains/Midwest, and the LTG displays are incredible. Not necessarily more CC or CG bolts, but the IC flickering is often amazing, esp. in the mid and upper parts of the CBs.

Ah yes. Enough wind to topple trees but not even budge the patio furniture. Dummy.

Thankfully, NFL training camp is just a few weeks away. Yeah baby!!