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aww do you want me to make long posts to entertain you little piggies? haha

Low of 62. Boat day.

White Plains recorded its fourth consecutive low in the 50s. The last time that happened in July was during 2009. At that time, an El Niño was developing. Strong El Niño conditions are already present this year.

CSU MLP guidance favors south of the area for Tuesday. CIPS is not enthused really. NCAR which normally is overly bullish is not terrible but given its normal...is under enthused as well.

Me too. Heard cicadas the same time you did, but they are sparse. Kinda hoping they’ll come out in force.

Picked up .80 inches in heavy rain this morning. Closing in on 6 inches for the month.

Loud morning!

Had a little rain shower early this am

Torch !

DCA has had one above average precip month since June 2025. That was due to the sleet storm in January. July to date is -0.32" so maybe we can get lucky over these last few days.

More more comfortable temperatures here than areas to our west.

Outstanding stretch of weather on LI

57.9 this morning 3 consecutive nights below 60 degrees in July, last time that happened out here at ISP was 2018

You missed the stuff the other day?

More rain and storms this morning. Looks like a good chance of severe weather this week as well.

He doesn’t even know where I live lol

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 PAZ028-036-050-052-056-057-059-063-270715- Juniata-Franklin-Snyder-Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Cumberland- 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and isolated instances of hail are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with localized damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rain will move into the Central and Eastern Pennsylvania on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 PAZ064>066-270715- Adams-York-Lancaster- 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and isolated instances of hail are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms with localized damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rain will move into the Central and Eastern Pennsylvania on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Yeah, 49F here. Can’t get enough of these days. Bring the deluge.

58° Just not a cold place

Morning day 3 discussion from SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. ...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians... Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.

It’s basically a guarantee that the models get even stronger with the El Niño on the August runs. This ongoing WWB is record-breaking, literally off the charts and the current DWKW is gaining strength…. Subsurface: 2026 vs. 1997 vs. 2015 vs. 2023:

Likely still in the '80s on top of the hill.

Maybe even ever

Comments on Today’s Mt. Holly Forecast Discussion Today’s Mt. Holly forecast discussion once again seems to reflect the same “haves and have-nots” problem we have repeatedly seen with beneficial rainfall across the region. While thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall may occur somewhere within the forecast area, that does not necessarily translate into meaningful rainfall for the Lehigh Valley, particularly the drought-affected areas north of South Mountain. The discussion appears overly optimistic about the prospects for beneficial rainfall reaching these areas. One of my primary concerns is the influence of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Once convection develops elsewhere, particularly south or west of the Lehigh Valley, those outflow boundaries can significantly alter the local environment and disrupt subsequent storm development. Combined with the terrain and topographic influences surrounding the Lehigh Valley, this can once again leave portions of the area with very little rainfall while locations elsewhere receive excessive amounts. For the Lehigh Valley, I would consider rainfall exceeding 0.50 inch far from certain. In many locations, receiving even that amount may be fortunate unless the convective pattern develops in a very specific manner. There appear to be two realistic mechanisms that could produce widespread, beneficial rainfall for the Lehigh Valley: Training thunderstorms develop over the same locations. This could produce substantial rainfall, but the placement of training convection is extremely difficult to predict and may just as easily occur outside the drought-affected areas. The frontal boundary slows or stalls in a favorable position. That could provide a longer period for repeated convection and more widespread rainfall. However, based on the persistence of the recent pattern, I consider that an even less likely outcome for the Lehigh Valley. Without one of these mechanisms occurring, scattered thunderstorms may once again produce impressive rainfall totals in isolated areas while leaving much of the Lehigh Valley with inadequate rainfall. That distinction is important. A regional flash-flood threat is not the same thing as regional drought relief. A few locations receiving 2–3 inches from thunderstorms does little for drought conditions if large portions of the Lehigh Valley receive a few tenths of an inch or nothing at all. I believe Mt. Holly should place greater emphasis in its forecast discussions on the continuing drought and rainfall deficits north of South Mountain. Flooding potential certainly needs to be communicated where warranted, but it should not dominate the discussion to the point that the public is left with the impression that widespread beneficial rainfall is expected. Until the existing pattern actually breaks, the forecast discussion should distinguish much more clearly between localized heavy rainfall potential and widespread, sustained drought-relieving rainfall. For the Lehigh Valley, those are two very different outcomes.