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Yes, most climate models have us getting more frequent el niño events in the long term. Major caveat though - it will likely take stronger events to overcome W Pac forcing/warm pool so more Ninos doesn’t necessarily translate to more Aleutian Lows.

I don't think so, we are still "evening out" a 27-year period of more than 50% La Nina's (RONI). And the subsurface in the west is not as cold as 1997 was at this time. You seem to think we are overdue for a Strong La Nina but I think +ENSO is the tendency going forward as it's more about the cumulative, so if a Moderate Nina is the average follow up of a Super Nino, I think it will only be a Weak Nina. We'll see.

RDU officially hit 100. We aren’t far behind, 99.4 at my house. Hottest day of summer so far

not much yet a few isolated popups to our nrth and to our south

Wow Temp- 89.1 DP- 80.6 Feels Like - 106.3

Just touched 95 here

The area Kakashi was talking about expanded with today's update.

RDU was once again with their 99 THE hottest at 2PM by 2F of ALL major reporting stations in the entire SE! Louisburg, NC, was next at 97.

Islip topped out at 92, FRG 93, currently 91/70 there.

maximizing surface heating ahead of the forcing

94 here as well. toasty

83.6/70

RDU posting 99 right now Should hit 100 easily-there anyway lol

Dew point of 80 here @2:17pm.

https://phys.org/news/2026-06-earth-energy-imbalance.html

93 and feelin free.

New Tornado Watches coming soon per MCD Mesoscale Discussion 1089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...northeast Missouri...southern into eastern Iowa...far western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 311... Valid 111808Z - 112045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for severe storms with potential for tornadoes, and new/updated tornado watches are likely over parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and surface observations indicate a modifying/retreating outflow boundary into south-central IA where winds are now out of the south and with low 70s F dewpoints. Meanwhile, the synoptic cold front continues to push rapidly east, along with the shortwave trough. This front is located from central IA into northwest MO as of 18Z with gusty southwest winds ahead of it. GPS PWAT is over 1.80" now into southern IA. Low-level shear is quite favorable for rotating storms near the retreating outflow, with 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2. Over the next few hours, storms are likely to develop near the cold front, and perhaps within the warm advection zone near the modifying outflow boundary. Supercells are expected initially with deep-layer shear near 55 kt and ample low-level SRH to support rightward cell propagation relative to the cold front orientation. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Damaging winds also are likely as high-PWAT air mass supports ample downdraft material with any larger storm clusters or linear modes near the cold front. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40359360 40869338 41379301 41469282 41699196 41769157 41699111 41429084 41019079 40589079 40169089 39919133 39899157 39739279 39759326 40119358 40359360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

So that elevated blob over Iowa now is what was supposed to be developing into a line of supercells and eventual deracho this evening on yesterdays fantasy CAMs? The lead MCV does seem to be slowing down and running out of steam. Temperatures are decent on this side of the lake. Dewpoints are just meh compared to yeasterday though. I just want some good beneficial rain. Hope I don’t get screwed out of that somehow.

94 here as of 2PM

Honeysuckle and multiflora rose blend around here says late spring/early summer to me...well more specifically and nerdily "Memorial Day weekend and the weeks around it". Cursed plants ofc 89/79 here at home by the bay, not as hot as most but got the soup

If they maintain mostly sunny and that good wind direction they could get an upper 90 reading here soon.

91/72

I've got 98.4 so far

93/76 HI 107

Around here, storms in high PW environments like today are generally more effective at cranking out the CGs. As you note, though, questions about the evolution of storms this evening remain.