griteater Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM has a nice pivot with the precip from hr 18-27 for the Raleigh area...850mb convergence axis sets up from Raleigh to Virginia Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SF, Thanks as always. Even a delay of a few hours of 32 could make a huge diff., especially in the Savannah area. I wonder if the 0z will be warmer at the surface and at 850 mb. My study of wx maps for big coastal winter storms tells me that if the low is just a little closer to the coast, it would put it closer than climo suggests fwiw. I respect your knowledge of the area, but wouldn't a closer in low mean warmer temp.s due to a little bit of ocean influence? Man, if I wasn't sure you are content with whatever comes, I say you were a bit skittish about loads of zr You seem to be trying to get out of a corner, lol. But I know the scientist in you relishes the experience to come. It's really worst in the night, with the cracking, crashing, and blue flashes with explosions, lol, so try to sleep through it. Seriously, I'm pulling for you guys to avoid anything over a half inch of z. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 No east trend for southern energy coming with 0z NAM, it appears -- through 6 hours it's actually a bit SW of 18z NAM position. Eh? At 24 it's definitely more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We skate the 1550m line during the height of it, could still be all SN, but not by much. 1550.JPG With almost an inch of precip I think you are going to do just fine, a little sleet mixed in will just make the roads more fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Man, the trend of shutting off precip in the Gulf Coast and Mid South continues -- eastern NC/SC's gain is La./southern Ala./southern Miss.'s loss. Not sure if I agree with that. 00z NAM is much wetter here than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM doesn't do much for CLT and points west at all. Sorry. It was a big shift, let's see what the RGEM is doing, if you guys can squeak out 0.25" you might be able to 3-4" with that, you never know. The NAM was close to 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 at 18z tomorrow, the NAM and RAP could not be more different at the surface. The rap has dropped 2/10th’s of liquid jsut to the west of Atlanta with moderate snow falling and the NAM is bone dry there at the same time? Who do we believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Right -- I was commenting early in the run -- 9-12 hours. Then "sped up" relative to 18z. Eh? At 24 it's definitely more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Trust me, as bad as the NAM is you NEVER, EVER trust the RAP at this range. As a Philadelphian who has tracked tons of storms this year, trust me on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yes, but a lot of that is early -- when the cold air arrives in force, we've lost a good bit of the precip. Also, 850s lagging behind in panhandle -- I went from a nice period of snow at the end to all sleet and freezing rain on this run. Not sure if I agree with that. 00z NAM is much wetter here than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I agree with the RAP doing well for our area...it has depicted the last few clippers very well showing the lee side dry slot and picking back up east of the area. So it's the one im watching along with the hi res models. GSP's disco has peaked my interest as well talking of the widespread moisture. it was quite useful during the 2010 and 11 winters as well IIRC. looks like both RAP and new NAM put .10 over most of GA and the upstate and some show maybe a bit more (nothing over .25 but the maps i am using arent the best). honestly i know the big stuff is too far to our south, but i just dont want to be shut out lol. seeing some day time snow fall is awesome and if we can get .10-.20 we might eek out an inch or so. enough to whiten things up and let us in the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 at 18z tomorrow, the NAM and RAP could not be more different at the surface. The rap has dropped 2/10th’s of liquid jsut to the west of Atlanta with moderate snow falling and the NAM is bone dry there at the same time? Who do we believe? The RAP is probably more right, the NAM has continue to show that overrunning signal from 15-20Z more and more each run over N GA..of course its a weak signal with less than .05 precip but the RAP/RGEM sure seem to think its alot more than that..bottom line its the signal becoming more apparent on the NAM that matters more than anything, I think for sure there is a band of snow in NW GA during the late morning and early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We skate the 1550m line during the height of it, could still be all SN, but not by much. 1550.JPG If this is latest NAM it looks terrible for piedmont areas, not better and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z NAM total precip at hour 39(looks like most models now have RDU at > .5): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If this is latest NAM it looks terrible for piedmont areas, not better and wetter. That is only a six hour frame, not the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Trust me, as bad as the NAM is you NEVER, EVER trust the RAP at this range. As a Philadelphian who has tracked tons of storms this year, trust me on this one. I agree, but the GFS/Ukmet/Canadian all look more like the RAP for my area. The Nam still has me worried though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP will more often than not be too amped up after hr 12 or so. Just from experience. The NAM differences arise early on with the S/W entering the central plains a bit stronger than 18z and thus pumping heights a bit over the SE coast and offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Figure around 3 then. Not a uniform cluster and SREFS run wet anyway. Check the date -- that's yesterday's 21z plume data 1/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 at 18z tomorrow, the NAM and RAP could not be more different at the surface. The rap has dropped 2/10th’s of liquid jsut to the west of Atlanta with moderate snow falling and the NAM is bone dry there at the same time? Who do we believe? In my experience, the RAP should be model of choice over the NAM. The NAM has been absolutely awful for the last 13 months and I don't even look at it anymore. It hasn't been right in NC at all this winter for any snow event while the RAP has been excellent in capturing details ahead of and during an event. I see no reason to change that logic now. Throw out the NAM and stay with the more reliable RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP is probably more right, the NAM has continue to show that overrunning signal from 15-20Z more and more each run over N GA..of course its a weak signal with less than .05 precip but the RAP/RGEM sure seem to think its alot more than that..bottom line its the signal becoming more apparent on the NAM that matters more than anything, I think for sure there is a band of snow in NW GA during the late morning and early afternoon. Can we not start by comparing the RAP's handling of the Baja sw to current wator vapor? Or am I thinking of something else? I've been wrong more than hundreds of times before. I would trust RAP over NAM at this range everyday based on history alone for NW SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM has us in the teens for the bulk of the event, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 In my experience, the RAP should be model of choice over the NAM. The NAM has been absolutely awful for the last 13 months and I don't even look at it anymore. It hasn't been right in NC at all this winter for any snow event while the RAP has been excellent in capturing details ahead of and during an event. I see no reason to change that logic now. Throw out the NAM and stay with the more reliable RAP. It would be great if we had the HRRR right now but of course it was still down on last check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the NAM is trying to dry things out with what looks to be down-sloping. Not sure I agree with this. The orientation of our moisture fetch will be from the southwest. This could be a case where very low dew points eat away at the precip back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Boy, would only take a 100-mile displacement of that big slug of moisture left behind at hours 42-48 to make a lot of people happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 936 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 GAZ025-027-031>035-041>045-281100- /O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0002.140128T1500Z-140129T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0005.140128T1500Z-140129T1200Z/ JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE... CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR 936 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PART OF NORTH GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. * LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM ATLANTA TO ATHENS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...A HALF TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MOISTURE COULD EITHER RESULT IN LOWER AMOUNTS OR UP TO A FEW INCHES AND MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TUESDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN ADDITION TO SLICK ROADWAYS. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING IN THE MID 20S NEAR MID MORNING...STAYING NEARLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 4km NAM looks similar for 12km NAM for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 New GSP storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Actually, I believe the NAM was slightly wetter in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 At 24 hours, not seeing appreciable changes on 0z RGEM vs. 12z run (but with hard-to-read b/w maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 4km NAM looks similar for 12km NAM for central NC. I thought it looked wetter but I was just glancing at 6h precip panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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