Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

They'll issue the wind advisories and high wind warning for E LI this afternoon.  I know you went on your rant yesterday but we have track agreement now with the models, so they'll have confidence to issue products now with respect to the wind IMO.

Me, rant,  no lol deft must be the other guy lol

[wthrmn654]

Heck the cmc even looks good,  down to 988 at the last loaded frame and it does a spin just south of montauk  

[SnowGoose69]

Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM.  Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational 

[wthrmn654]

Correction, it would appear the cmc does a slow north west drift so to speak for a few frames at 988 in the direction of Montauk. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM.  Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational 

going to be a disaster for sure (The model)

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM.  Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational 

Is that the fv3 hi res Meso model i see on tidbits?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

going to be a disaster for sure (The model)

I guess the ECAIFS to a degree has that idea too but its evolution of the far west drift is quite a bit later on and would make sense.  

[MANDA]

Beaches from NC/VA taking on water this morning.

 

https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/2103104692251464073/video/1

https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103108589720408552/video/1

https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103093525869170733/video/1

https://x.com/RobertRayWx/status/2102878650089582869/video/1

[Yanksfan]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

going to be a disaster for sure (The model)

Throw in the fact we’re going to have a full moon during the event. Sheesh.

[MANDA]

Latest visible loop shows the system taking shape east of North Carolina.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

[MJO812]

DT

[wthrmn654]

Cmc run puts out 2-5 inches of rain Nassau and Suffolk County roughly speaking. 

[mob1]

UKIE is pretty far east, and while it does bring some rain eventually (as the storm retrograde SW) at that point it's largely occluded and winds throughout are very meh. 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

UKIE is pretty far east, and while it does bring some rain eventually (as the storm retrograde SW) at that point it's largely occluded and winds throughout are very meh. 

Lol then why did I read online just now that the 12z ukmet came West. 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Lol then why did I read online just now that the 12z ukmet came West. 

Not sure what it showed in prior runs. Here it is at hour 72 for example, now compare it with the western camps. It does inch it's way west eventually, but at that point the winds have very little bite left. 

[Brian5671]

UKIE is a garbage model

[uofmiami]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

UKIE is a garbage model

It's about 36hrs behind the capture of the low and retrograding it W compared to all the other models.  I'd toss it.

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

It's about 36hrs behind the capture of the low and retrograding it W compared to all the other models.  I'd toss it.

At of today's runs so far I'd toss the RRFS, Ukie and 3k NAM 

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

At of today's runs so far I'd toss the RRFS, Ukie and 3k NAM 

Ukie wide right & hook back, RRFS left hook into Delmarve and 3k NAM goes nuclear on the pressure.  Agree completely!