Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

They'll issue the wind advisories and high wind warning for E LI this afternoon.  I know you went on your rant yesterday but we have track agreement now with the models, so they'll have confidence to issue products now with respect to the wind IMO.

Me, rant,  no lol deft must be the other guy lol

[wthrmn654]

Heck the cmc even looks good,  down to 988 at the last loaded frame and it does a spin just south of montauk  

[SnowGoose69]

Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM.  Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational 

[wthrmn654]

Correction, it would appear the cmc does a slow north west drift so to speak for a few frames at 988 in the direction of Montauk. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM.  Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational 

going to be a disaster for sure (The model)

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not exactly promising to see the RRFS doing something even more wacky than the NAM.  Albeit the RRFS version available is not the one I believe will be going operational 

Is that the fv3 hi res Meso model i see on tidbits?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

going to be a disaster for sure (The model)

I guess the ECAIFS to a degree has that idea too but its evolution of the far west drift is quite a bit later on and would make sense.  

[MANDA]

Beaches from NC/VA taking on water this morning.

 

https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/2103104692251464073/video/1

https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103108589720408552/video/1

https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103093525869170733/video/1

https://x.com/RobertRayWx/status/2102878650089582869/video/1

[Yanksfan]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

going to be a disaster for sure (The model)

Throw in the fact we’re going to have a full moon during the event. Sheesh.

[MANDA]

Latest visible loop shows the system taking shape east of North Carolina.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

[MJO812]

DT

[wthrmn654]

Cmc run puts out 2-5 inches of rain Nassau and Suffolk County roughly speaking. 

[mob1]

UKIE is pretty far east, and while it does bring some rain eventually (as the storm retrograde SW) at that point it's largely occluded and winds throughout are very meh. 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

UKIE is pretty far east, and while it does bring some rain eventually (as the storm retrograde SW) at that point it's largely occluded and winds throughout are very meh. 

Lol then why did I read online just now that the 12z ukmet came West. 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Lol then why did I read online just now that the 12z ukmet came West. 

Not sure what it showed in prior runs. Here it is at hour 72 for example, now compare it with the western camps. It does inch it's way west eventually, but at that point the winds have very little bite left. 

[Brian5671]

UKIE is a garbage model

[uofmiami]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

UKIE is a garbage model

It's about 36hrs behind the capture of the low and retrograding it W compared to all the other models.  I'd toss it.

[Rjay]

29 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

It's about 36hrs behind the capture of the low and retrograding it W compared to all the other models.  I'd toss it.

Out of today's runs so far I'd toss the RRFS, Ukie and 3k NAM 

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

At of today's runs so far I'd toss the RRFS, Ukie and 3k NAM 

Ukie wide right & hook back, RRFS left hook into Delmarve and 3k NAM goes nuclear on the pressure.  Agree completely!

[wthrmn654]

18 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Ukie wide right & hook back, RRFS left hook into Delmarve and 3k NAM goes nuclear on the pressure.  Agree completely!

If we were to combine all of them, might be a nuclear mutation of a storm

[wthrmn654]

Wind advisories are now up for boston nws zone from i think Hartford east. With winds advisories going that far west. I would guess either high wind warning (or watch knowing Upton)  suffolk and advisories maybe Nassau County to nyc? Not sure about that part..

[wthrmn654]

Like I been telling all my employees at work this week, storm or no storm, this is a great dry run for the winter season of big storms, and felt ready for erosion flooding, power outages, etc.  And making sure all equipment is prepped working etc..

Same concept with this storm here,  practice run for the winter.  Gives us an idea of just craziness we might see, from nws, and deft from models. 

  here's to a hopefully very cold, very snowy very stormy winter season with hopefully 5 blizzards!

[Tatamy]

Current conditions at Ocean Bay Park on the Bay side of Fire Island.  A fair amount of storm surge is already in place.

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Current conditions at Ocean Bay Park on the Bay side of Fire Island.  A fair amount of storm surge is already in place.

Crazy were heading towards low tide right now,  I think that area is as well though it could be closer to it already. 

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Crazy we’re heading towards low tide right now,  I think that area is as well though it could be closer to it already. 

No Coastal Flood Advisory in place yet?

[OldSkool]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.

Reminds me of December 1992 except this is stronger.

[wthrmn654]

10 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

No Coastal Flood Advisory in place yet?

There are coastal flood watches and coastal flood advisories for southern Nassau County and i thin south western Suffolk county issued last night. Highly expect more watches/ advisories to be issued very shortly for more areas. 

[MANDA]

WPC take on precipitation for 72 hour period 8pm this evening until 8pm Sunday.  As good as anything right now.  Eventual path of surface low will determine final outcome.  I kind of like the western extent but thinking maybe totals on the high side? Thinking along the lines of .5" to 1" here.  Room for more though.  For Suffolk County on ENE into southeast New England including coast of central and eastern CT 2 to maybe 4".

[wthrmn654]

Here we go there starting to issue,  so far i see wind advisory 

[wthrmn654]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service New York NY

229 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

 

CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-271000-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0003.260925T1800Z-260927T1000Z/

Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-

Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-

Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten

Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-

Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern

Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-

229 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

 

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...

 

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

 

* WHEN...From 2 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday.

 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.