Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[Big Jims Videos]

Barnegat Bay communities are going to get whacked pretty good. Mystic Islands, Tuckerton, etc.  Regardless the surf and erosion on the shore this is going to be significant for the bays. 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

meso's going nuts lol.   another model another solution.   RGEM next

The 3k NAM has a small area of hurricane force surface winds NW of the center on Saturday afternoon. Incredible.

[East of the Parkway]

2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Barnegat Bay communities are going to get whacked pretty good. Mystic Islands, Tuckerton, etc.  Regardless the surf and erosion on the shore this is going to be significant for the bays. 

Seaside is a mess already 

[NJwx85]

[Brian5671]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

that's much difference than the 12K NAM which sends it into the DELMARVA

[East of the Parkway]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

that's much difference than the 12K NAM which sends it into the DELMARVA

Still terrible for the NJ shore

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

that's much difference than the 12K NAM which sends it into the DELMARVA

Also the timing is wildly different. The storm is still intensifying as the run ends. And there’s a ridiculous amount of rain lurking just offshore.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, East of the Parkway said:

Still terrible for the NJ shore

We got to Ocean City in August and they just finished up a beach replenishment project-wonder how much of it they lose this weekend?

[NJwx85]

The 12z RGEM is an intense storm too but because of where it stalls, the winds would be northerly, and then offshore, saving the NJ coast from the worst flooding.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z RGEM is an intense storm too but because of where it stalls, the winds would be northerly, and then offshore, saving the NJ coast from the worst flooding.

heavy rains of 4-8 inches east LI and CT

[NJwx85]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

heavy rains of 4-8 inches east LI and CT

I think the mostly offshore, low to no impact solutions are off the table now. The storm is already forming.

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's much difference than the 12K NAM which sends it into the DELMARVA

Only good thing with this scenario as shown is it keeps the wind trajectory more NNE to N and that would keep water from piling onto the coast.  Still questions on how this all eventually plays out.  Complex evolution for sure.

[TriPol]

17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think the mostly offshore, low to no impact solutions are off the table now. The storm is already forming.

Tell @NEG NAOthat.

[MJO812]

Just now, TriPol said:

Tell @NEG NAOthat.

He most likely gave in.

[hazwoper]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We got to Ocean City in August and they just finished up a beach replenishment project-wonder how much of it they lose this weekend?

It’s already bad there.  Saw a story last night and already showed scouring on the beach.

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

It’s already bad there.  Saw a story last night and already showed scouring on the beach.

The persistent Easterly flow that we’ve had all week certainly has made things worse.

[NJwx85]

Not much change on the GFS through 24hrs.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not much change on the GFS through 24hrs.

Slightly west

[Brian5671]

Big rains NYC and east on the GFS

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Only good thing with this scenario as shown is it keeps the wind trajectory more NNE to N and that would keep water from piling onto the coast.  Still questions on how this all eventually plays out.  Complex evolution for sure.

That doesn't help north side of Long Island that was hammered bad last winter...

[wthrmn654]

Finally decided to reach out to nws to see when they will finally be doing major storm update..

[wthrmn654]

Icon looks stronger too 

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Finally decided to reach out to nws to see when they will finally be doing male storm update..

Is @NEG NAOrunning the NWS today? GFS came west again. Enough model watching. Issue watches and warnings already. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Finally decided to reach out to nws to see when they will finally be doing male storm update..

There was a guy that posts here..Dom? 

[Brian5671]

Just now, TriPol said:

Is @NEG NAOrunning the NWS today? GFS came west again. Enough model watching. Issue watches and warnings already. 

I think you'll see that at the 3-4pm update.  Wind advisories and flood watches for some areas

[wthrmn654]

Standby, it's i haven't bothered them enough the last few days they should answer semi shortly.  My guess/hunch is after 12z they will start doing big updates. 

[NJwx85]

The GFS would be low to moderate impact.

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Finally decided to reach out to nws to see when they will finally be doing major storm update..

They'll issue the wind advisories and high wind warning for E LI this afternoon.  I know you went on your rant yesterday but we have track agreement now with the models, so they'll have confidence to issue products now with respect to the wind IMO.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS would be low to moderate impact.

I think it's still trended west a bit too

[wthrmn654]

They're reply,  they're actually in the middle of a big update and it will be pushed out this afternoon.