October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[ineedsnow]

Early on but the GFS might get a clue this run

[ineedsnow]

AI GFS looking good

[tiger_deF]

GFS is substantially stronger and farther to the west at 48H

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty much same environment.

When it shows something good…it’s the same environment.  When it doesn’t, you’re on pikes peak compared to them. 

[ineedsnow]

GFS figured it out

[OrangeCTWX]

That’s a cave by the GFS. What a way to ruin a whole weekend lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there one person here who wasn’t expecting that to happen? I mean if so , raise your hand and head to the corner and throw the dunce cap on .

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

That’s a cave by the GFS. What a way to ruin a whole weekend lol

Yep we knew 

[tiger_deF]

Now that it is semi locked in let's see if the intensity can ramp up some. If we're going to have a weekend of awful weather it should at least be interesting. A modelled 990mb is certainly a decent storm, especially with the high pressure gradient, but nothing crazy

[Cyclone-68]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be fine imo. 

Thank you! My friend will be relieved

[ineedsnow]

GEFS also coming in west

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Good to see the GFS coming back to reality at 12z a bit. Probably will cave hard at 18z or 0z

like clockwork

[CoastalWx]

Wow one thing I did notice. The winds at 925 and 950 aren’t much different on the NAM and GFS. Both models are impressive at 950. 
 

I can’t see that on the euro, but I assume it may also apply to other models and not just GFS and NAM. 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt. 

[Damage In Tolland]

A real tempest is about to envelop the region. The type not seen in many many years. 

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt. 

if this happens I'm definitely taking a drive to the coast.. I'm sick of the same boring shit this summer 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A real tempest is about to envelop the region. The type not seen in many many years. 

October 2021 is not walking through that door

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

October 2021 is not walking through that door

We just don’t know 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

October 2021 is not walking through that door

some members are really strong and a good high to the north.. there's a chance this beefs up a bit

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I do feel like these hybrid early season events more often result in boredom than anything else. 

So much of this stuff depends on location and expectations.  

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt. 

925mb

18z GFS

 

12z Euro

 

I'm not ready to post the Nammy but it was robust too. 

[jlauderdal]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

if this happens I'm definitely taking a drive to the coast.. I'm sick of the same boring shit this summer 

Go hangout in an apple orchard with 60 mph winds, that wont be boring.

[ineedsnow]

18z CMC also west and stronger 

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there one person here who wasn’t expecting that to happen? I mean if so , raise your hand and head to the corner and throw the dunce cap on .

Uhhmmm...do you think everyone here has forgotten your posts from this past sunday????...lol

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

if this happens I'm definitely taking a drive to the coast.. I'm sick of the same boring shit this summer 

Got to see how winds time with the tides. May take a ride down to Marshfield Saturday night. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

October 2021 is not walking through that door

Yeah that was 70kt plus at 950. Don’t see that happening.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So much of this stuff depends on location and expectations.  

925mb

18z GFS

 

12z Euro

 

I'm not ready to post the Nammy but it was robust too. 

Weathernerds has 950 and 975mb winds. I was impressed that 950 wasn’t much different vs 925. In fact gfs at one point was stronger at 950 vs 925 lol. 
 

Anyways doesn’t mean much now. Just need to watch intensity and track. But if this went into EWB or ACY, it’s a pretty strong hit for many areas. Difference might be gusts 55-60mph vs 65-70mph with strongest winds on N and NW side of the low.

[Bryan63]

Sorry for the personal question, but any thoughts on what this looks like for the Lincoln, NH area? Supposed to be going up there this weekend with the family and have until tomorrow to cancel and get my money back. Not trying to pay to be stuck in a cottage with two kids under 8 for the weekend.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Uhhmmm...do you think everyone here has forgotten your posts from this past sunday????...lol

Not sure what you’re talking about unless it was the reverse psychology one . 

[JACKASS]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there one person here who wasn’t expecting that to happen? I mean if so , raise your hand and head to the corner and throw the dunce cap on .

 

On 9/19/2026 at 6:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

That thing never had a chance . Couldn’t understand all the excitement and wildness 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weathernerds has 950 and 975mb winds. I was impressed that 950 wasn’t much different vs 925. In fact gfs at one point was stronger at 950 vs 925 lol. 
 

Anyways doesn’t mean much now. Just need to watch intensity and track. But if this went into EWB or ACY, it’s a pretty strong hit for many areas. Difference might be gusts 55-60mph vs 65-70mph with strongest winds on N and NW side of the low.

There’s a fair amount of folks here who have no idea what the potential is with this. Vort95 nailed it . Glad we recognized and jumped on board early and often.