Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[Masswx]

Damn that was a good recovery 

[CoastalWx]

Serious coastal flooding on that run. 

[ineedsnow]

im kind of interested in something forming in the Bahamas later this weekend.. CMC had hints and now the Euro... GEFS members and some AI members also had something forming the last few days.. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Serious coastal flooding on that run. 

days and days! might have to take a drive to the coast

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

days and days! might have to take a drive to the coast

2 months worth of rain too lol. 

Still too early to lock anything.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

2 months worth of rain too lol. 

Still too early to lock anything.

very weak but still around at the end of next week 

[CoastalWx]

12z AI ensembles a little east but good hit. Curious to see deep mind later.

[Bostonseminole]

If only this was in January


.

[WxWatcher007]

Total deluge especially ENE areas

[ineedsnow]

EPS also looks good

[ineedsnow]

best EPS run yet.. GFS is either drunk or going to pull a miracle

[CoastalWx]

Both models seem to have a cluster SE of ACK and then way SW of ACK. Or course the mean will be in the middle...but it's likely one or the other.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Both models seem to have a cluster SE of ACK and then way SW of ACK. Or course the mean will be in the middle...but it's likely one or the other.

What's interesting on the EPS is you see the two clustered areas that you mention, however, then there is a convergence of the two camps backing in west. 

[tiger_deF]

What scenarios would increase the chances of a hybrid/warm core system?

Spending more time over water? Moving north quicker rather than just rotting offshore? A more pronounced capture?

[weatherwiz]

that is a monster LLJ too on the Euro...and one that encompasses a large geographic area 

[Bostonseminole]

Good soaker on Euro


.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

What scenarios would increase the chances of a hybrid/warm core system?

Spending more time over water? Moving north quicker rather than just rotting offshore? A more pronounced capture?

Not living with cold ocean surrounding us ... 

[mreaves]

Meanwhile, down in the home of hurricanes, seas are calm and the breeze is light. Perfect beach weather. 

[CoastalWx]

Deep mind sort of exhibiting the two-cluster deal too. Actually more spread vs 06z IMO.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

What scenarios would increase the chances of a hybrid/warm core system?

Spending more time over water? Moving north quicker rather than just rotting offshore? A more pronounced capture?

I'd say having the initial development happen further southwest in warmer waters, which could allow for the low at the start to have more tropical characteristics (deeper warm core, persistent convection closer to the center, banding features). The further north it heads however the more purely baroclinic it's going to be given SSTs, and the capture would just hasten the full transition to a typical extratropical nor'easter. 

At the end of the day however, the impacts wouldn't be substantively different unless this were leaning tropical and then scooting north imo. 

All that said, I think it's unlikely to ever be designated, even if it looked good. Recent history shows that the NHC tends to be slow on these.

Did you know that October 2021 became Subtropical Storm Wanda? It was designated days after it delivered legitimate C1 wind gusts and damage to the coast.

 

Last September saw a low that was probably subtropical given its appearance in its final hours before "landfall", but it never got designated. 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not living with cold ocean surrounding us ... 

Quite a temperature contrast. For the most part, our region is much warmer than normal, but this is what it gets you. Isn't 24C around the usual line for subtropical development?

[ineedsnow]

I know i know its the 18z NAM.. BUT that would be fun if it went out a bit more