Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[40/70 Benchmark]

Too bad we couldn't get a cane to come up in this pattern, though it would probably pull a Sandy and turn in south of us.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously some disagreement which is expected with such an anomalous setup. Would love for this to strengthen over Gulf Stream and swing west, south of SNE 

Don’t we want it to go up over E MA and then west across SNE for maximum wind damage?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like remarkable ensemble agreement on a pretty impactful event to me...if this were winter, I'd be sending the social media alerts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t we want it to go up over E MA and then west across SNE for maximum wind damage?

I think we would want it to back to the west a bit south of us

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t we want it to go up over E MA and then west across SNE for maximum wind damage?

No that would weaken pressure gradient 

[weatherwiz]

That would be some widespread power outages on the Euro...yikes. 

[CoastalWx]

6z euro is probably worst case here for coast. Jesus. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No that would weaken pressure gradient 

Yea, you want a drift to the west just south of LI to max that ENE funneling.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, you want a drift to the west just south of LI to max that ENE funneling.

6z euro stalls and then moves west towards ACK. It’s like 40-50kts+ on the coast for over 24 hours. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

6z euro stalls and then moves west towards ACK. It’s like 40-50kts+ on the coast for over 24 hours. 

That'll do-

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That'll do-

You’d be buried alive in winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You’d be buried alive in winter. 

I think it would be messy in December with that onshore fetch.....

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he means "bad" in relation to run-run consistency...

I know what he meant ...  but in 'quantization of correctness', if one model has a single run that is correct and no other model shares in that distinction, that model is better than the other guidance.

Frankly, I don't like this event for the way it is handled in the models, regardless. 

I won't downplay the intrigue, tho. With an at first isolated cold profile, then going hybrid core, the Euro solution appears to do a weak 'perfect storm' sort of hint there. Pretty fantastic and certainly entertaining at a minimum.

But the issue I'm having is that this feed into the region is unremarkable.  There seems to be some spontaneity in the behavior of lowering heights, and that's dubious in terms of handling for me.  They appear to be deepening the whole construct/evolution from the non-linearity/transitive forcing - which ... is invisible by definition. Synergistic byproduct is an example of non-linearity...  In this case, only having a very modest S/W (shrapnel really) moving through the S Lakes, suddenly attaining 18 dm of height implosion S of L.I. like that is a bit too much of something from nothing.

So, it's not physically impossible?  No.   However, long years of experience with modeling, I can remember this type of modeled scenario as having higher error.  

The models et al are still beyond 4 days - my own confidence will slope up significantly < 4 days.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it would be messy in December with that onshore fetch.....

Obviously we are weenie projecting, but decent NNE ageo flow there with strong HP N and NW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know what he meant ...  but in 'quantization of correctness', if one model has a single run that is correct and no other model shares in that distinction, that model is better than the other guidance.

Frankly, I don't like this event for the way it is handled in the models, regardless. 

I won't downplay the intrigue, tho. With an at first isolated cold profile, then going hybrid core, the Euro solution appears to do a weak 'perfect storm' sort of hint there.   

But the issue I'm having is that this feed into the region is unremarkable.  There seems to be some spontaneity in the behavior of lowering heights, and that's dubious in terms of handling for me.  They appear to be deepening the whole construct/evolution from the non-linearity/transitive forcing - which ... is invisible by definition. Synergistic byproduct is an example of non-linearity...  In this case, only having a very modest S/W (shrapnel really) moving through the S Lakes, suddenly attaining 18 dm of height implosion S of L.I. like that is a bit too much of something from nothing.

So, it's not physically impossible?  No.   However, long years of experience with modeling, I can remember this type of modeled scenario as having higher error.  

The models et al are still beyond 4 days - my own confidence will slope up significantly < 4 days.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously we are weenie projecting, but decent NNE ageo flow there with strong HP N and NW.

I know, but I think I'd eventually have issues with it backing into Ginxy's dog kennel like that.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know what he meant ...  but in 'quantization of correctness', if one model has a single run that is correct and no other model shares in that distinction, that model is better than the other guidance.

Frankly, I don't like this event for the way it is handled in the models, regardless. 

I won't downplay the intrigue, tho. With an at first isolated cold profile, then going hybrid core, the Euro solution appears to do a weak 'perfect storm' sort of hint there.   

But the issue I'm having is that this feed into the region is unremarkable.  There seems to be some spontaneity in the behavior of lowering heights, and that's dubious in terms of handling for me.  They appear to be deepening the whole construct/evolution from the non-linearity/transitive forcing - which ... is invisible by definition. Synergistic byproduct is an example of non-linearity...  In this case, only having a very modest S/W (shrapnel really) moving through the S Lakes, suddenly attaining 18 dm of height implosion S of L.I. like that is a bit too much of something from nothing.

So, it's not physically impossible?  No.   However, long years of experience with modeling, I can remember this type of modeled scenario as having higher error.  

The models et al are still beyond 4 days - my own confidence will slope up significantly < 4 days.

I noticed that too, it’s a subtle shortwave  then all the sudden it deepens with multiple contours at H5.

 

But I think that’s also in response to cyclogenesis too.  We see that in winter a lot, only strong s/w and more closed contours at H5. I don’t necessarily have an issue how it’s modeled, it’s more the track and how each vort lobe location dictates where the low migrates to.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed that too, it’s a subtle shortwave  then all the sudden it deepens with multiple contours at H5.

 

But I think that’s also in response to cyclogenesis too.  We see that in winter a lot, only strong s/w and more closed contours at H5. I don’t necessarily have an issue how it’s modeled, it’s more the track and how each vort lobe location dictates where the low migrates to.

Right...

I mean I just mentioned to wise-ass (   lol )  that it's not physically impossible.. I just wasn't going to get into a whole UVM 'stokes discussion about why latent heat release lowers heights  ...  Question is, how much and does it really drill down an anchor a surface low that the Euro's near bombogen rates needs to be 72 hours out for my taste. We'll see

The other thing ... something happened about 10 or 15 years ago with modeling, et al. The general technological behavior seemed to unilaterally reverse.  What used to be missed in the late mid range, suddenly became over amplified in general ongoing dependable practice. We colloquially refer to this as 'model magnification' but it's not like that's not doing that anymore. It's still a real tendency/hasn't gone away.  

Not having substantive S/W input into the arena, then ending up with multiple contours ... mmm sort smacks as a candidate for that oversell routine.  

[CoastalWx]

FWIW both euro and euro ai ensembles came NW.

[ineedsnow]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously some disagreement which is expected with such an anomalous setup. Would love for this to strengthen over Gulf Stream and swing west, south of SNE 

hoping for some big runs at 12z

[ineedsnow]

0z ICON last night looked really good lets get that solution again

[SouthCoastMA]

Has to be over the weekend though, blows

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Has to be over the weekend though, blows

it's certainly going to be blowing 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

it's certainly going to be blowing 

It sucks and it blows. 

That aside, at least it's interesting weather for once

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It sucks and it blows. 

That aside, at least it's interesting weather for once

I'm glad it's not the following weekend. I'll be at an outdoor event in New York (though lodging is indoors) but that would totally suck. 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too bad we couldn't get a cane to come up in this pattern, though it would probably pull a Sandy and turn in south of us.

some EPS and GEFS members have been hinting at it on and off for next week but its a long shot

[Typhoon Tip]

heh, as chilly as this seems ... we're actually above normal against climo with the day's lows so far. 

68 to 70 is the climo max, BDL-FIT-ASH.  Prooobably going to end up below that... we'll see

but a sneaky effect here?