July Discobs 2026

[Interstate]

I feel like @dailylurker anymore with these thunderstorm. 

[kgottwald]

I'm really tired of overcast 70-degree-dewpoint mornings. Isn't the front ever going to come through?

[BlizzardNole]

Got 0.15 to add to the 0.25 from Thursday.  Calvert with a departure of -7.0 inches for the year is the worst in the region west of the Bay.  And now there's no chance for rain in sight.  Crushing drought continues

[AnEndlessMaze]

Raining hard here again- every day since July 4 has now had measurable rainfall IMBY

[87storms]

If you play hoops, then you know that this is goat-level weather (near 80, mostly cloudy/partly sunny, and mostly calm winds). I loved the desert sun, but it was breezy (unusually breezy) and obviously dry almost every day.

[SnowenOutThere]

The bay/river boundary pushing across ffx county is desperately trying to get a storm going up over Reston. Have watched it grow for the past 10 minutes. 

[wxdude64]

Fun watching the showers/t-storms rolling WEST in a line from Front Royal to almost Lynchburg this afternoon, lol. Everything out this way seems to just be stationary, MAYBE a slight WSW movement. Although I've only had .25-.30 here since noon, 10 miles to my south has had 2-4 INCHES of rain and a FFW until 7:45 pm.

[MillvilleWx]

2 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Fun watching the showers/t-storms rolling WEST in a line from Front Royal to almost Lynchburg this afternoon, lol. Everything out this way seems to just be stationary, MAYBE a slight WSW movement. Although I've only had .25-.30 here since noon, 10 miles to my south has had 2-4 INCHES of rain and a FFW until 7:45 pm.

Summer convection is so fickle. The plot of soil moisture anomalies is pretty textbook across the eastern half of the country. Tons of sporadic wet/dry signals within close proximity to each other. Only a few larger areas noteworthy for widespread wet top layer soil conditions. Need a broader synoptic scale disturbance to provide a more widespread convective threat followed by stratiform to get things to be evenly distributed. Could use one of those remnant tropical disturbances that have been lacking in these parts, outside that sweep over from Ida. 

[Jrlg1181]

0.01 northern Waynesboro - very heavy rain just to my south again...

1.24 for the 9 days of storms.. southern 3/4 of Waynesboro soaked repeatedly.... 

[WEATHER53]

My humidity at 10pm is 59% and that’s been over 10 days since under60% at 10. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Summer convection is so fickle. The plot of soil moisture anomalies is pretty textbook across the eastern half of the country. Tons of sporadic wet/dry signals within close proximity to each other. Only a few larger areas noteworthy for widespread wet top layer soil conditions. Need a broader synoptic scale disturbance to provide a more widespread convective threat followed by stratiform to get things to be evenly distributed. Could use one of those remnant tropical disturbances that have been lacking in these parts, outside that sweep over from Ida. 

August will deliver 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Summer convection is so fickle. The plot of soil moisture anomalies is pretty textbook across the eastern half of the country. Tons of sporadic wet/dry signals within close proximity to each other. Only a few larger areas noteworthy for widespread wet top layer soil conditions. Need a broader synoptic scale disturbance to provide a more widespread convective threat followed by stratiform to get things to be evenly distributed. Could use one of those remnant tropical disturbances that have been lacking in these parts, outside that sweep over from Ida. 

               One thing that makes it so difficult to even distribute summer rain here in the east is the inability to have nighttime MCC events.    Over the Plains, you can easily put down 1-2" over a large area with one of those systems, but we so rarely get EMLs here that MCCs can't survive the trip east.

[wxdude64]

8 hours ago, high risk said:

               One thing that makes it so difficult to even distribute summer rain here in the east is the inability to have nighttime MCC events.    Over the Plains, you can easily put down 1-2" over a large area with one of those systems, but we so rarely get EMLs here that MCCs can't survive the trip east.

Maybe it is just an 'older man' reminiscing about younger days, but I swear we used to get the 'leftovers' from big midwestern (IL/IN/MO/KY/OH) storms to swing thru here from the W or NW late overnight into the early morning hours. 

[CAPE]

62 this morning. Refreshing.

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Maybe it is just an 'older man' reminiscing about younger days, but I swear we used to get the 'leftovers' from big midwestern (IL/IN/MO/KY/OH) storms to swing thru here from the W or NW late overnight into the early morning hours. 

I was thinking the same thing. I remember as a kid strobe light thunderstorms in the middle of the night. You'd wake up to pouring rain and continues flashing and loud thunder. I honestly can't remember the last time that happened. 

[yoda]

No, I do not want the bolded from this mornings LWX AFD - the 100s that is

KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast confidence decreases substantially late this
week into the upcoming weekend, but the potential is there for both
extreme heat and severe thunderstorms.

Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the longwave
pattern across the CONUS late this week into the upcoming weekend
will feature troughing across the Pacific NW, ridging over the
center of the country, and then troughing downstream across New
England. Such a pattern will place us in NW`ly flow aloft.
However, there`s considerable disagreement regarding the
placement of individual shortwaves and their associated sfc
fronts throughout that period. As a result, there`s a highly
atypical amount of forecast spread for this time of year during
that time window. Ensemble guidance has members showing highs
anywhere from the upper 70s to the mid 100s each day Fri through
Sun, with above average spread on Thu as well (mid 80s to mid
100s). So depending on which solution verifies, we could have
anywhere from well below normal temps to record highs each day.

Dry conditions are expected on Thu, but chances for
storms start to increase for Fri, Sat, and Sun. Depending on
how the pattern evolves, and which side of the frontal boundary
we end up on, there could be a potential threat for severe
thunderstorms. The forecast temp spread illustrates the
unseasonable amount of baroclinicity that will be present, which
should translate into unseasonably strong wind fields aloft as
well. If we end up on the warm, unstable side of the boundary,
the threat would likely be there for severe thunderstorms, with
MCSs possible in NW`ly flow aloft. SPC currently has much of
the forecast area highlighted in a 15 percent contour for severe
thunderstorms on Fri, and WxNext2 AI guidance highlights
additional threats for severe thunderstorms on both Sat and
Sun. We`ll need to monitor trends over the course of the week,
since this is a very conditional threat at the moment, given the
atypically high amount of forecast uncertainty.

[wxdude64]

Well, not from an event like from my previous post, but DO have a drizzle/light rain/fog thing going on this morning. Temp in mid 60's, feels wonderful. High yesterday was 73.5 degrees, and that happened before noon, then it fell into mid-upper 60's and stayed there with rain on and off. Glanced at records to see where the 73.5 fell on the 'cool max' chart, lol nowhere close. Mind can't remember the event, but high on 7/13/1999 was 61 with about a 1/2" of rain. I don't think anything tropical was around then, although 1999 was a busy year. 

[GramaxRefugee]

Low of 63. I was surprised.

Shockingly pleasant for mid-July in the swamp

[WxUSAF]

Several upper 50s for lows on the mesonet 

[Weather Will]

Beautiful Day for a Walk Warning in Effect!  Can't beat today in mid July,,,,,ENJOY!

[Herb@MAWS]

Monday morning low IMBY/Columbia 65° (compared to BWI 63°)

[wxdude64]

As of the 13th I am running a + number on rainfall for the month, 2.31" vs a normal of 1.70, +.61".

Decided to see what the past year ran and if a + halfway thru the month made a difference, so going backwards a year-

June 2026   3.16" vs normal 4.20", -1.04"    15th 1.61" vs normal 2.10", -0.49"

May 2026    3.90" vs normal 4.30", -0.40"   15th 1.42" vs normal 2.15", -0.73"

April 2026   2.07" vs normal 3.64", -1.57"     15th 0.87" vs normal 1.80", -0.93"

Mar  2026   2.12" vs normal 3.52", -1.40"      15th 0.83" vs normal 1.75", -0.92"

Feb 2026    2.76" vs normal 2.67", +0.09"    15th 0.19" vs normal 1,35", -1.16"

Jan 2026    2.84" vs normal 2.94", -0.10"     15th 0.92" vs normal 1.45", -0.53"

Dec 2025    3.21" vs normal 3.32", -0.01"     15th 1.73" vs normal 1.60", +0.13"

Nov 2025    1.34" vs normal 2.78", -1.44"     15th 0.25" vs normal 1.40", -1.15"

Oct 2025     2.19" vs normal 2.70", -0.51"     15th 0.86" vs normal 1.30", -0.44"

Sept 2025   2.28" vs normal 3.55", -1.27"    15th 0.11" vs normal 1.70", -1.59"

Aug 2025    2.04" vs normal 3.32", -1.28"    15th 0.83" vs normal 1.60". -0.77"

July 2025   4.19" vs normal 4.01", +0.18"     15th 2.74" vs normal 2.00", +0.74"

  That is a -8.75" for the 12 months, and a -7.84" at the mid-point of the month. Appears if you're in the hole by mid-month you don't recover? Feb 2026 stands out as an outlier to that. Also, it has been a year since I've been on the positive side this high mid-month. 

[pazzo83]

DCA dropped below 70 (barely) for the first time since June 25th.