Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully one of those concrete pits has a min of 90° in my lifetime.

We’re getting closer

That’s so brutal in an urban setting.  Man, if you don’t have A/C…

[Baroclinic Zone]

Tickling 90F already.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

How do scientists explicitly account for urban heat when measuring Earth's global temperature to ensure that local heat islands do not skew data on global climate trends?

The city UHI factor did not just appear when the climate change acceleration took place.   

It's always been there over these last century(s).

(UHI now)   -  ( UHI back then) =  the d(UHI) factor.   Doing that arithmetic results a positive number;  in other words, a net gain from the UHI factor. 

The UHI contribution is responding to the atmosphere's ability to store more thermal energy than it had prior to the Industrial Revolution ... just like the ambient planet is. It just so happens to be that the environmental prompt of the urban setting is so conducive to heating, it responds faster than the open terrain of rural regions.  But his ability to respond quicker is not an offset argument to CC - it's ironically more of a metaphoric thermometer that exposes more heat quotient available to the UHIs.  Not sure what's motivating your question, but it's air apparent ( pun hopefully annoying ...) that people that attempt to ply the argument of exaggerated heat, have less learned and/or native understanding that the science is simply more right, whereas the less educated/intelligentsia are more wrong for even thinking that idea is correct.  Utterly false

Op Ed beyond this point:  Which is why I blame the science community for a lot the sociological stigma to climate change. It was never brought forth the way it should have been.  In stead of breaking press to the media as finger wagging doom, this should have been handled in the Pentagon, as it is both a national and global security risk.  Top down corruption may also have blocked this, granted, but just living through the last 40 years of zeitgeist, one does not get the feeling this approach was really even attempted in that order/consideration.  Instead, it was a PR failure to attack the custom of that cultural heritage - which was entirely built by the energy provided by fossil fuels...etc..etc.   

That was skeptically processed ( probably) as something else in a world where media has degraded its credibility spanning that same time - and gotten far worse.   This is like ... intuitively automatic at this point.  "Media" has become a veritable ongoing movie, thematically a comedy over a backdrop of dystopian colors.  And now with AI obfuscating truth and fiction, what trust could remain...  Good luck with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet failures and ocean catastrophic rises now.

The biggest failure of the scientific ambit's PR tactic was not the the climate is changing.  The problem isn't global warming. It's not.  Yeah...the world has been warmer, and colder, over geologic history.   

The problem is lack of understanding that the human species, like every species on the planet, in inextricably dependent on the health and vitality of the whole systemic ecology of the planet.   That's always been the failure.   Humanity has created this industrial bubble, within which we are very successful at creating surpluses, and options in the ongoing survival motif.  Over successive generations...this has become entitled.  And part of sense of abstract entitlement is an utterly suspended disbelief that these advantages could be taken away, that they are immutable - thus ... "we'll be fine".   

We won't be.   ...unless we win the technological race against our own demise... Maybe some tech will be invented, just in time, that restores the system back from the edge, bringing back vitality by turning on some sort of sci-fi-bilator

This is an illusion in the bubble.  We are still alive because of the immeasurable vastness of species interaction in the Gaia-life, the ecology of the whole planet.  And that ecology is fragile.  Life evolved within certain tolerance bandwidths, one of which is the exceptionally complex way in which temperature effects environments.  When the temperature changes at a faster rate than the adaptation rate of the ecology's  constituent codependencies, by the time observations are made that suggest stress, stressing had already begun.  Failure is by then imminent.  Diasporas trigger problems when species flee to new, unfamiliar realms to survive [enter the Gaia bible here ] ... culminating in extinctions.  Remove enough keystone species from the entire ecological scaffolding of the world, and the world crumbles. The mass extinction events in Earth's history were linked to sudden disruptions in the environmental status quo, kind of like a billion years worth of fossil fuel stowed in the Earth, being liberated in just 300 years by an innovating agency that has no checks and balances built in to modulate the roll-out of its technologies - certainly not for using oil.  And now? we're ironically too inextricably linked to using it, to abruptly stop would unfortunately represent a problem, huh. 

You know ...the greatest natural disaster to have ever occurred on this planet might in fact turnout to be the advent of human innovation.          

 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

West wind is great news for those of us who will be on the other side of Buzzards  Bay.   

Enjoy your time on the Cape.  Are you in Falmouth?  I look right out toward that. 

Give me any tinge of south vector and it's a different story.  Up to 87 now while I take a break from mowing my postage-stamp sized lawn.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like they pulled 87...absolutely insane. NBM was not far off on that...much closer than GFS/NAM

I remember closing down one of the Fordham bars during a heatwave back during my student days in the 80's.  Staggering through the mean streets of The Bronx at 3:00am with temps in the low 80's.   It was nuts.  That's the only thing I remember from that night.  lol

[Typhoon Tip]

We are actually ahead of yesterday by 2-5 degrees from what I'm seeing/estimating using this NWS product (it's out of the GRR office but I like it) 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=grr

It's a drag and drift over product. Click on the image, hold and pull and it slides around all over the god's creation.   

Anyway, yesterday we were 86-ish most sites, with Logan the only one that 90 by 10 am.  If you click on the point sites the product offers the 5 minute to hrly obs for the last day(s), so if I were not so lazy I could verify my comments here.  LOL   I may be wrong but it seems we're ahead by a little.  

 

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Saw this post today (screenshot attached).  Posts like this allow us to call out nonsense or hype, or at least question content.  This is a good thing b/c the amount of bad or misleading info out there is high.

So just take 133 heat index reading "as is" -- no critical thinking or independent thought?

133 does not fit surrounding sites.  We all too often assume what all wx sites report are correct.  Untrue, and some networks are worse than others.  You have so many out there, some just use personal wx stations (PWSs), and you know not all of them are sited or calibrated properly.  This same problem exists for some official wx sites as well.

And where did this individual get the information for the record of heat index values in NJ?  Is there even such a list officially?

Also, look carefully.  No info on what this network this is, the name of the location, or what time it is at.  It also does not give any information on where or when the previous heat index record occurred.  This is often done to make it harder to check/validate claims.

In addition, it is mentions the highest actual temp recorded in NJ, yet talks about heat index.  Inconsistent comparison and irrelevant in this case.  And it claims that "much higher humidity" for the heatwave today (compared to the 1936 heat).  Is that really true?  Ppl just say things for a narrative or hype arbitrarily so much on posts like these w/ no hard evidence to support.

Be vague and generic, and hope ppl don't bother checking.  Classic clickbait and hype tactic.

And when doing posts like this, I always take a screenshot and block out the poster's or site's name.  Do not want to make it available for more clicks/likes.  Which brings me to another point.  Some post bad, incorrect, or exaggerated info on purpose b/c it will get more clicks/likes.  It's all about content, facts and accuracy be damned.
 

Possibly a TD error - once dews get into mid-70s and above the HI goes nuts.  Some years back I found a couple sites at Iranian oil-handling islands on the Persian Gulf that were reporting 98-100F with TD 88-90 and HI well into the 130s.  Those readings were consistent over several days.  Maybe each site had data issues, or maybe that's the dewpoint capitol of the world. 
(Several times the reports included wind 25-30 mph with condition listed as "sand".  I can't think of a worse wx experience, outside of strong tor/canes.)

Follow-up to CAR minima:  They were reporting 73 at midnight, warmer at 10 and 11 PM, down to 71 by 1 AM.  Looks like their warmest minimum breaks the record, but by 2° rather than 3°.

[Layman]

Looks like it’s getting warm back home. 

But it’s beautiful up here  78 with a nice breeze.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

This would be interesting if it were to occur. HRRR suggesting some degraded air quality from wildfire smoke settling near the surface in parts of New England tomorrow. Add in firework smoke, and it could be even worse I'd imagine?

 

[dendrite]

Much stronger WNW flow up here this morning. I feel like S NH will outdo yesterday.

[BrianW]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This would be interesting if it were to occur. HRRR suggesting some degraded air quality from wildfire smoke settling near the surface in parts of New England tomorrow. Add in firework smoke, and it could be even worse I'd imagine?

 

Haha. Right over New Hampshire the only New England state that sells good aerial fireworks. Going to be an extra special smoky 4th up there. 

[Michael05192016]

22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This would be interesting if it were to occur. HRRR suggesting some degraded air quality from wildfire smoke settling near the surface in parts of New England tomorrow. Add in firework smoke, and it could be even worse I'd imagine?

 

Like a Canadian Smoke Derecho signature. Right?

[Typhoon Tip]

92

[dendrite]

MHT 92/64 and  NW 20G27mph

Definitely better mixing today

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Mins. The mornings we dream of.

If that 87 is EWR it's their new record.  7/22/2011 was 108/86.  (A Phoenix day, but with humidity.)

Storms slid to my south, 3-for-3 the past 3 nights.  Didn't even see any "heat lightning" (a term I've used since the 1950s for flashes from too far away to be heard.  Sorry, LR). 
The SFD from GYX talked about storms/rain/troughs but their forecast for 04955 doesn't include a single drop thru next Thursday.

[SJonesWX]

45 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This would be interesting if it were to occur. HRRR suggesting some degraded air quality from wildfire smoke settling near the surface in parts of New England tomorrow. Add in firework smoke, and it could be even worse I'd imagine?

 

you’re concerned about fireworks smoke? lololol

[WxWatcher007]

Running just behind yesterday’s pace now at WXW1.

91.7°

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We are actually ahead of yesterday by 2-5 degrees from what I'm seeing/estimating using this NWS product (it's out of the GRR office but I like it) 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=grr

It's a drag and drift over product. Click on the image, hold and pull and it slides around all over the god's creation.  

 

 

Thanks for this page.  Is this hourly obs or if it is refreshed is it also ASOS stations that upload near real time?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Thanks for this page.  Is this hourly obs or if it is refreshed is it also ASOS stations that upload near real time?

Refreshed…it’s all the sites mesowest has. ASOS includes the 5 min data.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?&zoom=9&scroll_zoom=false&center=43.329173667843904,-71.68579101562501&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&obs=true&obs_type=air_temp&obs_popup=false&obs_density=10&obs_provider=ALL

[weatherwiz]

Crazy spread in CAMs today with convective coverage. The shitty W/WNW llvl flow really blows for coverage. But if we do see any storms enter the region they could pack quite a punch. The llvl flow is very weak but DCAPE values are absolutely nuts 

[Torch Tiger]

quite the Steined heatwave.  theyre becoming more frequent it seems

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

you’re concerned about fireworks smoke? lololol

Well, I'm more concerned about the Canadian wildfires smoking out the celebrations, if the HRRR is correct. Just noting the air quality could be even worse when you combine that with fireworks.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This would be interesting if it were to occur. HRRR suggesting some degraded air quality from wildfire smoke settling near the surface in parts of New England tomorrow. Add in firework smoke, and it could be even worse I'd imagine?

 

I have never contemplated the effects of firework smoke...until now!

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Definitely running behind yesterday, which is weird because today was supposed to be a little bit hotter than yesterday.

[wxeyeNH]

It's 12:45pm.  My brother is a doctor in DC.  He and his family are at the 250th July 4th event.  The police are shutting the whole thing down right now until 5pm.  Although there are a huge amounts of people the medical tents can not keep up with the heat victims.

[moneypitmike]

Up to 93.  I was expecting it would feel worse than it does.

[HoarfrostHubb]

93F here. Tied with yesterday with a ways to go.  
this morning felt a bit more humid but that might just be in my mind

[Torch Tiger]

27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

It's 12:45pm.  My brother is a doctor in DC.  He and his family are at the 250th July 4th event.  The police are shutting the whole thing down right now until 5pm.  Although there are a huge amounts of people the medical tents can not keep up with the heat victims.

it's hot but victims, nah, no one forced them to go. I do feel for those who don't choose to be out though

[ma blizzard]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

93F here. Tied with yesterday with a ways to go.  
this morning felt a bit more humid but that might just be in my mind

early morning was tropical but looks like starting around mid morning ish with better mixing dews dropped into the mid 60s

[WxWatcher007]

95.1/75 at WXW1

82/66 at WXW2