Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Damage In Tolland]

Some of models have a mesolow move up directly over PVD this afternoon. If that happens gonna be some big totals for RI and much of S and E MA

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That area east of Albany is getting annihilated 

Some 7-8” amounts on CoCoRAHS just south of Albany in the Hudson Valley.

That’s decent water for 24-hr period.

[WxWatcher007]

3k NAM and HRRR placement of that low are radically different. Leading to very different results. HRRR would basically end the rain in CT by noon while Nammy would pour across most of the state (of course, everywhere but mby).

[HoarfrostHubb]

 Nothing here yet today.  It’s coming though.  
 

on the other hand, they are finally digging up and replaving my street.  It has needed it for 15 years.     Today’s rain will slow them down a little. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Wonder if March 1888 radar looked like this?

[Brian5671]

winding down here  2.36 in the bucket

[WxWatcher007]

9.08” of rain reported just SE of Albany. 5” in the last three hours.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2.57" good drink.. 15.33" on the month.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

3k NAM and HRRR placement of that low are radically different. Leading to very different results. HRRR would basically end the rain in CT by noon while Nammy would pour across most of the state (of course, everywhere but mby).

Based on radar . And where low currently is and moving . HR cubed looks much better idea

[weatherwiz]

An flooding yet outside of some random Bridgeport roads where the drains are clogged from McDonalds wrappers and bullet shell casings? 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Yeah, if this band of rains pivots through and then we slot by afternoon the totals will underperform in this area.  At least we got the rain yesterday. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on radar . And where low currently is and moving . HR cubed looks much better idea

I think I agree. My backyard gets porked either way. 

[klw]

Theme song for the day:

(anyone who gripes today has to restyle their hair to match anyone  from the video- unless they are getting flooding)

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

HRRR is pretty meh here. Half inch to maybe 3/4

[ineedsnow]

The eye is crossing over just east of Madison 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just got .20” in about 10 minutes.

[weatherwiz]

Was intrigued in potential for a strong or two within CT today should anything pop but I wonder if there is a window early afternoon for a localized damaging wind gust or brief tornado across SE MA. 

[kdxken]

36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 Nothing here yet today.  It’s coming though.  
 

on the other hand, they are finally digging up and replaving my street.  It has needed it for 15 years.     Today’s rain will slow them down a little. 

Probably from all the salt they put down.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

5.46” vs 0.95” MTD

… almost 6” on the month with more to come today and trying to sell it as Stein.

Even here, it’s rained like twice, but we’re over 5”. The numbers are the numbers 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

… almost 6” on the month with more to come today and trying to sell it as Stein.

Even here, it’s rained like twice, but we’re over 5”. The numbers are the numbers 

I melted quite a bit yesterday, but we were strategically missed multiple times.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I melted quite a bit yesterday, but we were strategically missed multiple times.

You and moultonborough standing strong.

 

Looks like we got over an inch here yesterday at the lake 

[CoastalWx]

47 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

2.57" good drink.. 15.33" on the month.. 

how is that even possible? lol. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

how is that even possible? lol. 

I'm probably close to that figure here

[scoob40]

1.87 at CEF so far for the event. Not sure how much more to follow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

how is that even possible? lol. 

Ya it’s been a bit wet lol. Didn’t Kevin have a close to 20” July a few years back ? 

[Layman]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Wonder if March 1888 radar looked like this?

It was different...

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya it’s been a bit wet lol. Didn’t Kevin have a close to 20” July a few years back ? 

Think near 15”. 

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I did not want to bring up the "feels like" temp, as that is out of control as to abuse, but it can be of use b/c "the door swings both ways!"  Once you get below 57 or 58 dew point, the heat index is actually lower than the air temp!  I would bet not many mets know or actively realize this.  I did not know until about 10 years ago!

I've spoken to ppl deployed in the Middle East, they can get perspective!  After in that sauna for a few months, coming home, 95 feels great! 

Acclimation I think is underrated.  When I moved to DC, it took me a few summers to get used to the more 90 temps and the more persistent high dew point, which get into the upper 70s more common here.  By my 3rd summer, I not longer noticed it. I adapted.  However, the flip side is that I am not as tolerant to cold.  This past winter was by far the coldest here since I moved here, and I noticed!  

I think from the general public POV, they think MT is "cold."  Most have zero idea what continental climate is like, and MT is the best state for temp swings in the CONUS.  It is the only state in the Lower 48 that has had sig snow at lower elevations (I am taking Great Falls proper) in August (happened in 1992).

It's even worse for AK.  Ppl are shocked to learn AK highest temps is 100 F, and that they get a lot tstms (all squeezed into J-J-A). Some locations get 30 days w/ thunder, more than a lot of New England!  And of course, tornadoes.  We had that one earlier this month, but I would bet good $$ there are 3-5 tornado in AK each year, just it is so large and sparsely populated, it precludes detection.

Acclimation can occur without moving a bit.  Sometime next month or early September we'll have a morning in the mid-upper 30s and it will feel quite chilly.  In January that would be shirtsleeve weather.  The early heat this month hit hard due to tall dews and not having had much real heat before that.  With several weeks of mostly CoC since then, another big heat next month will take some more acclimation.  Could happen - we've had only 2 heat waves here, each 3 straight 90+, and one came last year.  In 28 summers, we've had 90+ on 23 days.  June leads with 9 and August is 2nd with 7.  Only 3 in July and 2 each for May/September.

30 thunder days in AK?  That's twice my average here and last year we had a mere 5.  Go far NW for SVR?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Think near 15”.