July 2026

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Seems like Upton is discounting the widespread regional flood threat for tomorrow and Wednesday. Thoughts ?

AFD from KOKX

Alot depends on how the whole thing evolves.  If the late AM/early aftn wave is more significant the evening won't be as bad.  Thats evident on most of the high res models too.  HRRR has a stronger early wave, high res GFS/RRFS have mostly just a late one.  Instability looks more impressive in the evening than the Saturday event and less in the early wave/warm front than Saturday.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July.  EWR at 6 currently

 

Year	July 90° Days	August 90° Days	Difference
2021	10	13	+3
2018	9	14	+5
2015	11	13	+2

 

 

Year	June	July	August
2021	13	10	13

Yeah, the August average for the 2020s has been 10 days reaching 90°. We’ll have to see where the main ridge sets up and the what the wettest areas are. One of the warmest June 1st to July 16th periods along the East Coast.

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	1	2	8	15	10	2	0	35
2026	2	4	8	6	M	M	M	20
2025	0	0	10	20	8	1	0	39
2024	0	1	11	14	7	0	0	33
2023	2	1	1	14	5	6	0	29
2022	0	4	6	20	18	1	0	49
2021	0	4	12	11	13	1	0	41
2020	0	0	5	17	9	0	0	31

 

[Prue11]

Had a low of 54. Refreshing 

[cleetussnow]

12 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah July hasn't been bad other than that incredible heat wave to start the month. Pretty good that we're gonna end up with a near normal month despite that record early heat. I'm glad that we've gotten much more rain this month too. 

Kinda like last year but we got rain this year so far.  Which is lucky.

[jm1220]

Top ten afternoon. So glad to have a day without eye stinging campfire, monsoon or 95+. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Top ten afternoon. So glad to have a day without eye stinging campfire, monsoon or 95+. 

Well said, it’s a gorgeous beach day.


.

[Intensewind002]

Bottomed out at 59.7 here. Up to 78 now, beautiful day

[SACRUS]

81 / 48 just a superb out day

[donsutherland1]

The latest HREF is showing the potential for 1.50"-3.00" of rain across the New York City Metro Area.

If this holds through the 0z cycle, it wouldn't surprise me if flood watches are put in place for Tuesday into Wednesday.

[SACRUS]

[winterwarlock]

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest HREF is showing the potential for 1.50"-3.00" of rain across the New York City Metro Area.

If this holds through the 0z cycle, it wouldn't surprise me if flood watches are put in place for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Models all over with regards to timing. Some have heavy rain tomorrow morning, tomorrow night or Wednesday 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models all over with regards to timing. Some have heavy rain tomorrow morning, tomorrow night or Wednesday 

The timing is still very uncertain. Hopefully, there will be greater clarity during the 18z and 0z runs.

[JonClaw]

SPC extended enhanced risk to the NE, close to the metro area now.

[donsutherland1]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-211000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0005.260721T1200Z-260722T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern
Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings
(Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, including the following
  areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern
  Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and
  Western Union and southeast New York, including the following
  areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern
  Queens, Richmond (Staten Island) and Southern Queens.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
    Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Average rainfall
    totals will be between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals
    around 3 to 4 inches possible. Peak rainfall rates in the
    strongest storms could be near 2.5 inches per hour.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July.  EWR at 6 currently

 

Year	July 90° Days	August 90° Days	Difference
2021	10	13	+3
2018	9	14	+5
2015	11	13	+2

 

 

Year	June	July	August
2021	13	10	13

Probably not. I think we've already seen the worst of the heat. Unlike those years, we've had heat early and often, with 80s as early as March, 90s as early as April, and 100+ earlier this month. I highly doubt we see more 90-degree days in August than in June or July.

[SnowGoose69]

18Z HRRR not many changes, does move a bit to the RRFS/Hi RES GFS idea the first round 15-18Z may be mostly NYC north but the 22-02z period looks like a strong line of storms 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models all over with regards to timing. Some have heavy rain tomorrow morning, tomorrow night or Wednesday 

I see the 18z HRRR has a round for around midday, and then a long break for the afternoon before a big round for the early evening. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Kinda like last year but we got rain this year so far.  Which is lucky.

Last year was a frontloaded warm summer, with the heat wave in late June and the warmth lasting all through July. The summer pretty much ended after July 31.

[FPizz]

[Stormlover74]

56 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see the 18z HRRR has a round for around midday, and then a long break for the afternoon before a big round for the early evening. 

And nam is mostly Wednesday morning

[donsutherland1]

A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place for an extended period of time. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s and lower 80s through the week and into the start of the weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow into Wednesday. Some areas could pick up heavy downpours with flooding a possibility.

Daily rainfall records for July 21 include:

Atlantic City: 4.60", 1969
Bridgeport: 2.16", 1961
Islip: 2.69", 1984
New York City-Central Park: 2.26", 1983
New York City-JFK Airport: 2.45", 1948
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 2.06", 2006
Newark: 3.23", 2006
Philadelphia: 3.45", 1988
Wilmington, DE: 3.80"m, 1988

The long-term outlook for the remainder of July has swung to near normal or even somewhat cooler than normal on the guidance.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -21.79 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.825 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 64% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[NEG NAO]

WPIX trying to increase their ratings or decrease them ?

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

WPIX trying to increase their ratings or decrease them ?

I think its time for Mr. G to hang it up

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

WPIX trying to increase their ratings or decrease them ?

What model was the basis of this idea?

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

What model was the basis of this idea?

Mike Masco doesn't say but explains 

NYC weather

[straphanger]

Lee Goldberg was showing an HRRR model output showing 2-4" rain totals for NE Jersey, Hudson Valley, and SE CT tomorrow with NYC at the southern end of it.

[WestBabylonWeather]

A top ten day like today followed by a rain day? Hell…….

 

 

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:
 

 

TEB: 85
PHL: 85
EWR: 84
New Brnswck: 84
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
ACY: 82
NYC: 81
BLM: 79
JFK: 79
ISP: 78

[TriPol]

Why isn't tomorrow's storm generating more buzz on here? 3-6 inches of rain can be catastrophic.