frd Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Heavy rainfall producers near Warick, MD and Middletown, DE Vandyke, DE. seems to be center point for max rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Special Marine Warning ANZ430-271745- /O.NEW.KPHI.MA.W.0058.260627T1639Z-260627T1745Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1239 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Upper Delaware Bay... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 1238 PM EDT, a strong shower was located 9 nm southwest of Stony Point, moving east at 20 knots. This shower may strengthen into a thunderstorm. HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * Locations impacted include... Woodland Beach, Sea Breeze, Stony Point, Ship John Shoal Light, and Reedy Point. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected. && LAT...LON 3956 7562 3961 7545 3952 7538 3951 7539 3949 7536 3945 7533 3943 7534 3943 7532 3927 7520 3928 7560 3929 7555 3930 7555 3941 7562 TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 257DEG 20KT 3939 7569 HAIL...0.00IN WIND...>34KTS $$ Gorse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 47 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: You made a conscious choice to make posts complaining about a rating, if it's getting you THAT bent out of shape then that's a you problem. That's not how it went down. Nothing here about a weenie. You got annoyed(bent out of shape) because you said something ridiculous and I called you out. IDGAF about an emote. You do the weenie thing constantly though, because- you butthurt boy. Carry on being a shit poster. 21 hours ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly has really struggled forecasting reasonable rain totals lately. They were too aggressive on Tuesday, and this morning the forecast here was for 1-1.5" total through tomorrow. Given we are in an extreme drought you would think they would be more conservative. Updated forecast is a tenth or less for today, tonight, and tomorrow, 'except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms'. That's what it should have been in the first place, given the modeled scattered nature of the rain, and that drought begets drought (positive feedback loop). 21 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: They're smoking something pretty strong to be against all the major models... 20 hours ago, CAPE said: You are a generally horrible poster. Try and work on that. I wish you luck. 20 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: When god was handing out shit you thought he said wit and asked for seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Waiter waiter one dover screw job please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Forecasters need to catch on that rain events are not being realized. It’s called pattern recognition. Friday afternoon was forecasted as a 90% Rainer into and thru Saturday and so far barely more than Zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Forecasters need to catch on that rain events are not being realized. It’s called pattern recognition. Friday afternoon was forecasted as a 90% Rainer into and thru Saturday and so far barely more than Zero It's been that way for like a year now. If they haven't caught on by now I don't think there's any hope. Every one of the CPC lookahead precip charts shows above normal precip over the entire area yet their drought map shows that drought "persists" (doesn't "remain but improve"). They're covered no matter what happens I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 There have been huge gaps in terms of weather balloon coverage - basically the entire mountain west lacked coverage for the 12z runs today. This is obviously impacting model forecasts at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: There have been huge gaps in terms of weather balloon coverage - basically the entire mountain west lacked coverage for the 12z runs today. This is obviously impacting model forecasts at this point. I wonder what the cause of that could be 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, CAPE said: and I called you out By offering little substance and instead opting for an ad hominem. 1 hour ago, CAPE said: IDGAF about an emote Exhibit A: 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Mr. weenie all posts is gonna die on this ant hill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 17 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: By offering little substance and instead opting for an ad hominem. Exhibit A: lol that was a dig at you. There's something lacking when a poster is known only for applying excessive weenie emotes. I did suggest maybe try harder to become more productive. Again, carry on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 What in the world is going on in here...? @JenkinsJinkies - Take this stuff to banter. It is pretty obvious to see reading through this thread as an uninvolved third-party who is/was the aggressor. We are all here for the enjoyment of weather. Calm down and just take the L. It's okay to have a difference of opinion - it's how you act that matters. Quit while you're ahead - you're flirting with child-like temper tantrum territory... Nobody wants to open this thread to you having some weird argument in public. Get a room. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: What in the world is going on in here...? @JenkinsJinkies - Take this stuff to banter. It is pretty obvious to see reading through this thread as an uninvolved third-party who is/was the aggressor. We are all here for the enjoyment of weather. Calm down and just take the L. It's okay to have a difference of opinion - it's how you act that matters. Quit while you're ahead - you're flirting with child-like temper tantrum territory... Nobody wants to open this thread to you having some weird argument in public. Get a room. By himself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Forecasters need to catch on that rain events are not being realized. It’s called pattern recognition. Friday afternoon was forecasted as a 90% Rainer into and thru Saturday and so far barely more than Zero I hear ya! I had about 30 seconds of heavy rain and then light rain over next 1-2 hrs pre- and around dawn. Everything got wet but nothing to show for it really. I also had a 90% chance for rain — and it did rain, plus today is not yet over. Technical definition, I believe from NWS but anyone feel free to correct me: “A 90% PoP means there is a 90% likelihood that any given point in the forecasted location will receive at least 0.01 inches of rain during the specified time period.” It does not mean it will rain continuously for 90% of the day; rather, it signifies that widespread precipitation is expected and you should definitely bring an umbrella. Ha, don’t need one yet today…. and I may not yet technically be at 0.01” today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 My drought is getting worse on drought busting day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Genuinely questioned if the flood watch was a misinput. Can someone smarter explain why we have one till 10pm? @vortex95 @Eskimo Joe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Genuinely questioned if the flood watch was a misinput. Can someone smarter explain why we have one till 10pm? @vortex95 @Eskimo Joe There’s a chance of storms popping up with little warning in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 hours ago, CAPE said: I wonder what the cause of that could be lol yeah a real mystery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Genuinely questioned if the flood watch was a misinput. Can someone smarter explain why we have one till 10pm? @vortex95 @Eskimo Joe Mostly for inside the beltway to cover the urban watersheds that can flash quickly (Anacostia River, Sligo Creek, etc.) Some of the CAMs have been persistent in a narrow stripe of 1" -3" of rain in under 3 hours which would absolutely cause problems. The atmosphere is juiced with 70+ degree dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 lol yall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintrest Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 hours ago, pazzo83 said: There have been huge gaps in terms of weather balloon coverage - basically the entire mountain west lacked coverage for the 12z runs today. This is obviously impacting model forecasts at this point. Those balloons matter, and their absence is notable in forecast accuracy. However, the implication that their absence is a primary contributor behind lacking forecast accuracy should be revisited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Huh, interesting Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 414 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .A cold front has stalled over the DC metro. Increasing humidity is expected to lead to showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain through this evening. DCZ001-MDZ013-014-504-VAZ053-054-280200- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0002.260627T2014Z-260628T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 414 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Washington DC, portions of central Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Montgomery and Prince Georges, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria and Fairfax. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Scattered to numerous showers producing heavy rain are anticipated through this evening. Localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in 1 to 2 hours, and may lead to rapid rises of water on streams and in poor drainage areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DHOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 36 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Genuinely questioned if the flood watch was a misinput. Can someone smarter explain why we have one till 10pm? @vortex95 @Eskimo Joe It seems overdone. The entire area is in severe level drought, so that significantly mitigates flooding b/c rivers are streams are low. Yes, any heavy rain in a short time can cause localized flooding, but that par for the course in a metro area b/c of the concrete jungle. IMHO, they bar appears to be lowering w/ time as to what is considered "flooding." B/c a few underpasses flood, does that verify as a flash flood? Some underpasses *always* flood even w/ modest heavy rainfall from a tstm. That's more of a drainage or local infrastructure issue than a meteorological one! See what I am getting at here? It is not hard to verify such a watch if the bar is being lowered or you consider any significant ponding of water a flood. The flood watch was likely issued b/c it is DC, which it is obvious there is a bias for more watches/warnings here, but also due to the 250th events. I get that from a social/political/economic POV, but objectively, it is not following overall meteorological risk or science well. Noting stands out for this evening for significant flash flooding, HRRR/RRFS show a few local spots 1-2" this evening, but they are largely E of metro. Watches are typically issued based on a minimum coverage of the hazard expected. This does not meet such criteria for flooding IMHO, esp given the antecedent very dry conditions, which is a big deal when it comes to flooding risk and extent. Case in point, when Floyd ran up the E Coast in Sep 1999, excessive rains in VT of 4-8" caused only moderate flooding. When Irene did the same in Aug 2011, that same 4-8" resulted in near recorded flooding. Why? B/c the summer of 2011 was one of the wettest on record here, and the summer of 1999 was among the driest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: There’s a chance of storms popping up with little warning in this setup. 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Mostly for inside the beltway to cover the urban watersheds that can flash quickly (Anacostia River, Sligo Creek, etc.) Some of the CAMs have been persistent in a narrow stripe of 1" -3" of rain in under 3 hours which would absolutely cause problems. The atmosphere is juiced with 70+ degree dewpoints. 29 minutes ago, vortex95 said: It seems overdone. The entire area is in severe level drought, so that significantly mitigates flooding b/c rivers are streams are low. Yes, any heavy rain in a short time can cause localized flooding, but that par for the course in a metro area b/c of the concrete jungle. IMHO, they bar appears to be lowering w/ time as to what is considered "flooding." B/c a few underpasses flood, does that verify as a flash flood? Some underpasses *always* flood even w/ modest heavy rainfall from a tstm. That's more of a drainage or local infrastructure issue than a meteorological one! See what I am getting at here? It is not hard to verify such a watch if the bar is being lowered or you consider any significant ponding of water a flood. The flood watch was likely issued b/c it is DC, which it is obvious there is a bias for more watches/warnings here, but also due to the 250th events. I get that from a social/political/economic POV, but objectively, it is not following overall meteorological risk or science well. Noting stands out for this evening for significant flash flooding, HRRR/RRFS show a few local spots 1-2" this evening, but they are largely E of metro. Watches are typically issued based on a minimum coverage of the hazard expected. This does not meet such criteria for flooding IMHO, esp given the antecedent very dry conditions, which is a big deal when it comes to flooding risk and extent. Case in point, when Floyd ran up the E Coast in Sep 1999, excessive rains in VT of 4-8" caused only moderate flooding. When Irene did the same in Aug 2011, that same 4-8" resulted in near recorded flooding. Why? B/c the summer of 2011 was one of the wettest on record here, and the summer of 1999 was among the driest. I suppose I'm confused why it isn't a flash flood warning. A flood warning to me implies that the ground is saturated and a soaking rain/training storms will push already heighted rivers over the edge. Flash floods were more so thunderstorms overwhelming the ability of runoff to keep up. Even then, the CAMs seem somewhat unimpressive (or at least the NAM & HRRR)? I don't disagree that flooding could happen, I took a good look at the mesoscale analysis page and I understand we got the precipitable water content, good moisture transport, and a stalled boundary with pressure falling but a flood watch catches me off guard. I suppose we'll have to see if anything kicks off soon, though I'm not sure what would make something occur along the boundary in say an hour vs nothing happening all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 The forecaster has reasoning but pattern recognition for the past 36 hours would say NO. During recent times (1-2 years), this type of over-hype is occurring more often for SWE'S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnEndlessMaze Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: lol yeah a real mystery I wish OT would come back, so many things are infuriating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I suppose I'm confused why it isn't a flash flood warning. A flood warning to me implies that the ground is saturated and a soaking rain/training storms will push already heighted rivers over the edge. Flash floods were more so thunderstorms overwhelming the ability of runoff to keep up. Even then, the CAMs seem somewhat unimpressive (or at least the NAM & HRRR)? I don't disagree that flooding could happen, I took a good look at the mesoscale analysis page and I understand we got the precipitable water content, good moisture transport, and a stalled boundary with pressure falling but a flood watch catches me off guard. I suppose we'll have to see if anything kicks off soon, though I'm not sure what would make something occur along the boundary in say an hour vs nothing happening all day. How would it be possible to issue a Flash Flood Warning considering the menial amount of rainfall for the past 24 hrs??.. You are a severe disappointment compared to earlier expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I suppose I'm confused why it isn't a flash flood warning. A flood warning to me implies that the ground is saturated and a soaking rain/training storms will push already heighted rivers over the edge. Flash floods were more so thunderstorms overwhelming the ability of runoff to keep up. Even then, the CAMs seem somewhat unimpressive (or at least the NAM & HRRR)? I don't disagree that flooding could happen, I took a good look at the mesoscale analysis page and I understand we got the precipitable water content, good moisture transport, and a stalled boundary with pressure falling but a flood watch catches me off guard. I suppose we'll have to see if anything kicks off soon, though I'm not sure what would make something occur along the boundary in say an hour vs nothing happening all day. Actually, is "flash flood watch" a discrete product anymore? Recall a few years ago they removed a few types of products (Blizzard Watch was one) b/c it was getting to be too many product types. "Flood watch" may be the all-encompassing standard now? Given the antecedent very dry conditions and low water levels, again, I find a flood watch here a little much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 16 minutes ago, stormy said: The forecaster has reasoning but pattern recognition for the past 36 hours would say NO. During recent times (1-2 years), this type of over-hype is occurring more often for SWE'S. SWE's? Only thing I can think of for a wx acronym is "snow water equivalent!" LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 15 minutes ago, vortex95 said: SWE's? Only thing I can think of for a wx acronym is "snow water equivalent!" LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintrest Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 minutes ago, stormy said: Say what you’re actually thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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