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Saturday 6/27 drought reliever


dailylurker
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3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The 3km NAM has a couple of 6-7" bullseyes for later today in the area.  Of course, it has a 4" one this morning and nobody is getting that, so trust level = low.

 

0.32" since Friday.

I will not miss the 3km NAM when it goes away later this summer.  It almost always overdoes QPF, esp. when orographics are involved.  Its fcst sim radar leaves a lot to be desired as well.

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15 hours ago, IronTy said:

This needs to be brought back under control.  Who's running the show at these agencies?  A special marine morning with "a strong shower" and a FFW when I can't find anything more than some sprinkles within 100mi on radar. We've reached Baghdad Bob levels of forecasting.  I guess if you're gonna be wrong all the time you might as well be spectacularly wrong.  Get it to together, you're supposed to be pros.  

This was either overzealous inexperience or pattern recognition denial 

OR, the models Now are lousy in summer with precipitation movements and location like they are in winter .

i could have issued a damp street warning and been far more accurate 

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3 hours ago, frd said:

Your call for extreme heat is happening.  Very rare to see the Extreme Heat watch issued. Going to be brutal, not to mention the dew points and real feel temps. 

Of note, some WFO CWAs have lowered the threshold of temps for issuing heat advisories and extreme heat watches/warnings.  WFO BOX did this a number of years ago.  Instead of 95-100 F, it was lowered to 90-95 F.  I don't know about other CWAs, but it something to be aware of as our standards and practices change over time, and the trend is lowering the bar for more watches/warnings.

And the media takes full advantage of this, acting like changes in wx have demanded this, when it is social/political/economic factors, among other things.  We will soon have PDS blizzard and ice storm warnings, and you can bet the media will say, "FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER the NWS has issued a PDS..." :fulltilt:

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9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This was either overzealous inexperience or pattern recognition denial 

OR, the models Now are lousy in summer with precipitation movements and location like they are in winter .

i could have issued a damp street warning and been far more accurate 

Another possible reason other than overzealous inexperience or pattern recognition denial?  CYA - better safe than sorry.  I find this a weak excuse these days.  Forecast science and skill have come a *long* way in the last few decades alone, and we have models now that can show fine-details and fcst extreme events quite well now, so confidence level should be higher.  There are less "surprises" now.  We should be taking advantage of this better technology and skill that should result in *less* CYA - better safe than sorry.  Over-warning I would argue is as bad as under-warning. Over-warning impacts tend to be more indirect, but still cost lives and lot of $$.


"Damp street warning?"  LOL.  Sounds like something you'd see in Cali.  Don't give them any ideas!
 

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5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Of note, some WFO CWAs have lower the threshold of temps for issuing heat advisories and extreme heat watches/warnings.  WFO BOX did this a number of years ago.  Instead of 95-100 F, it was lowed to 90-95 F.  I don't know about other CWAs, but it something to be aware as our standards and practices change over time, and the trend is lowering the bar for more watches/warnings.

And the media takes full advantage of this, acting like changes in wx have demanded this, when it is social/political/economic factors, among other things.  We will soon have PDS blizzard and ice storm warnings, and you can be the media will say, "FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER the NWS has issues a PDS..." :fulltilt:

Yes, the media thrives on sensationalism like oh my goodness , this has never happened before.  And, millions of dunces believe it.

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16 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Man I wish I could meet the person behind these posts. I am genuinely curious why you are the way you are. I would love to meet the guy who types 20 periods and then does the next sentence correctly. I want to know who is on a weather form while being vehemently against climate change. I would love to see the person who seemingly thinks they know more than studied meteorologists. I want to meet the person who had "expectations" for a teenager on the AMWX forms, and then feels "severe disappointment" over what I've become. Why am I disappointing to you? Is it because I believe in degreed meteorologists over the whims of a stranger? Is it because I believe in the science of climate change? Is it because I don't baselessly use anecdotes for forecasting and I push back on those who do? Despite your often demeaning posts towards me I can't seem to find any emotion in me for you but curiosity, and maybe a bit of pity. 

I am amazed at how wrong you can be about so many things!! 

No wonder you didn't know the difference between a Watch and a Warning!  Amazing

A couple other duds:   Why would I be "vehemently against climate change" when it has been non-stop for millions of years!

As far as "knowing more than studied meteorologists", that is hilarious!!!   I like nothing more than learning from a true professional.   Voretex 95 is highly intelligent and made fantastic contributions to the discussion yesterday. I only wish that he could find the time to make daily contributions.

Cape?  Well, he used to be contributory at times.  More and more as he gets older, he gets his kicks by trying to be the bulldog on the block. Mental issues I guess.

Stay straight, study hard and one day you may be a fine met.  My disappointment yesterday was that several months ago, considering your desired course in life, I thought I could occasionally begin to learn from you.   I just have to be patient.

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27 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am amazed at how wrong you can be about so many things!! 

No wonder you didn't know the difference between a Watch and a Warning!  Amazing

A couple other duds:   Why would I be "vehemently against climate change" when it has been non-stop for millions of years!

As far as "knowing more than studied meteorologists", that is hilarious!!!   I like nothing more than learning from a true professional.   Voretex 95 is highly intelligent and made fantastic contributions to the discussion yesterday. I only wish that he could find the time to make daily contributions.

Cape?  Well, he used to be contributory at times.  More and more as he gets older, he gets his kicks by trying to be the bulldog on the block. Mental issues I guess.

Stay straight, study hard and one day you may be a fine met.  My disappointment yesterday was that several months ago, considering your desired course in life, I thought I could occasionally begin to learn from you.   I just have to be patient.

How did I get drawn into this "kerfuffle??"  :D

A couple of things for all.

1) People can agree to disagree and still be friends/civil.
2) Debate/discussion overall is a *good* thing!  That's how science advances and everyone learns more.  Not just objective facts, but improve ways to present and communicate, which, IMHO, is the biggest hurdle we face, esp. in this social media age.  Tone, inflection, and countenance, among other things, are lost via social media and it is all too easy to assume the negative, and then ppl get upset and the conservation devolves or shuts down.  That's not good.

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8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

image.thumb.png.53704d69dd04589f93bdfa051cb15238.png

Ok if we're going to just change the title instead of locking make it ..

"Beefs about NWS, models, warnings, media, hype, Joe Public's stupidity, a smattering of climate change debate, and appearances by our favorite cranky lunatics. Don't forget bashing mets and young enthusiasts!"

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1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

We will soon have PDS blizzard and ice storm warnings, and you can bet the media will say, "FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER the NWS has issued a PDS..." :fulltilt:

PDS?  Is that Particularly Dangerous Situation?

Thread relevant, nothing today but a passing light shower earlier.

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8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

PDS?  Is that Particularly Dangerous Situation?

Thread relevant, nothing today but a passing light shower earlier.

Yes, PDS - particularly dangerous situation.  I am just talking about how blizzard and ice storm warnings will have this label soon as an option.

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47 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

How did I get drawn into this "kerfuffle??"  :D

A couple of things for all.

1) People can agree to disagree and still be friends/civil.
2) Debate/discussion overall is a *good* thing!  That's how science advances and everyone learns more.  Not just objective facts, but improve ways to present and communicate, which, IMHO, is the biggest hurdle we face, esp. in this social media age.  Tone, inflection, and countenance, among other things, are lost via social media and it is all too easy to assume the negative, and then ppl get upset and the conservation devolves or shuts down.  That's not good.

You got drawn in because I admire and greatly respect your demonstrated intelligence. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Raining in Middletown.  Stopped at the Stephens City town limit sign.  Drove through and hit rain again north of Stephens City halfway to the Alamo complex.   You can't make this shit up.

Wanna trade profile photos? I think my yard can still support cactus growth.

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1 hour ago, stormy said:

You got drawn in because I admire and greatly respect your demonstrated intelligence. 

 

 

I knew you were showing praise.  I just wanted to make sure I have not stirred the pot somehow w/ a previous post and it resulted in a tangent issue. 

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7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It's been a dark rainy day here. I got pretty wet this morning while working. It's been a lazy, rainy afternoon. 

All true, but I only have about 0.15" to show for it all. Drove back from Silver Spring in steady rain almost all the way, then weakening in AACo. Oh well...about 0.60 for both days. Over 3" for June now. 

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