Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Fall River is always the FFW capitol.

Morrissey boulevard of the South Coast.

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait, that seems like a decent dose/time there.     which way is your sarcasm pointing ?

1.3" for the 2-day total here.  Looks on rad like we're about to go languid mist from here on out N-W of ORH-BOS.   Might clear at 5 o'clock ?

The NAM nailed this thing from about 30 hours out.  The Globals might have been a little rich on QPF?  not totally sure there. 

General audience:  

Ensembles look very close to a major heat headline-able event from ~ D8+ thru model fuzziness.  This was a vague signal some 10 days ago, way out along the emergent modeling horizon. It has since been inconsistently showing up and fading ... something like a 1.3 steps ahead by 1.10 steps back... but slowing inching more.  This overnight looks 70-ish percent confidence for a N/A mid latitude heat dome with less certainty whether it gets in here.  If so, it would be over the top - the ridge axis being 90-ish W instructs the NW delivery.  Which looks plausible in the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFS and GEP.   The GEPs in fact look quite fantastic for heat around D9, as it happenstance was an over top delivery that than morphs into this,

So the uncertainty with all this is the operational versions are being cute with convective shrapnel if not meso-beta scale synoptic waves ejecting out of the trough in the west, racing over the ridge top and probably sending outflow this and general warmth denting that, and seeing as we're at the eastern fragile end of that wave-space/curvature field, I'd go ahead a call that the operational models engineering any means plausible to physics to stop a heat wave signal from actually taking place  LOL.   seems like some times. 

Here are the EPS/GEFs ensembles in the meantime, for D9-ish

Heat dome!

[Typhoon Tip]

Other possibility around then is MCS given those looks.  That seems like a slam dunk consideration.

You know ...even if we don't get inside the DOME dome dome, the period of time will quite likely average AN

[HoarfrostHubb]

ORH still hanging on to +3.7F for the month.  Today will drop that a bit, but the month should still end solidly AN

[amarshall]

I haven’t moved in an hour . Rt 6 flooded




.

[HoarfrostHubb]

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait, that seems like a decent dose/time there.     which way is your sarcasm pointing ?

1.3" for the 2-day total here.  Looks on rad like we're about to go languid mist from here on out N-W of ORH-BOS.   Might clear at 5 o'clock ?

The NAM nailed this thing from about 30 hours out.  The Globals might have been a little rich on QPF?  not totally sure there. 

General audience:  

Ensembles look very close to a major heat headline-able event from ~ D8+ thru model fuzziness.  This was a vague signal some 10 days ago, way out along the emergent modeling horizon. It has since been inconsistently showing up and fading ... something like a 1.3 steps ahead by 1.10 steps back... but slowly gaining coherence.  This overnight looks 70-ish percent confidence for a N/A mid latitude heat dome with less certainty whether it gets in here.  If so, it would be over the top - the ridge axis being 90-ish W instructs the NW delivery.  Which looks plausible in the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFS and GEP.   The GEPs in fact looked quite fantastic/best for purer heat delivery around D9, as it was an over top delivery that then morphs into this,

So the uncertainty with all this is the operational versions are being cute with convective shrapnel if not meso-beta scale synoptic waves ejecting out of the trough in the west, racing over the ridge top and probably sending outflow this and general warmth denting that, and seeing as we're at the eastern fragile end of that wave-space/curvature field, I'd go ahead a call that the operational models engineering any means plausible to physics to stop a heat wave signal from actually taking place  LOL.   seems like that some times. 

Here are the EPS/GEFs ensembles in the meantime, for D9-ish

Yeah it was sarcasm. I was still in D1 last week. 

[SouthCoastMA]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if the beachcomber washes away again 

Nice secondary max out there..gotta be some 4" totals

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Meh. 1.11 here

[Layman]

2 Day total here was 1.94"

Since 6/1:  3.11"

Since 4/1:  13.36"

May gave us more than 50% of that total.

[Brewbeer]

a bit over an inch here but it has been dry, lawns look end of July tired already

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Nice soaker here-winding down now.

.78 here. Upton says more coming this afternoon. Looks like that stuff heading into NJ should give us some more this afternoon.

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

Kev knew 

1.09” 

Looks like your about to rain again.. enjoy 

[tamarack]

York/Cumberland Counties with 2-2.5", gauge here had 0.25", ranking 83rd of 92 cocorahs reports.  The bottom 9 were many miles NE from here, mostly Aroostook.  June average total is a bit over 5" - still in play but probably won't reach it.  On average we get 3 months/year with 5"+; most recent fiver was May 2025.

[CT Valley Snowman]

A bit over 1" is fine by me. Don't need the flooding and runoff, just a nice soaking. 

[mreaves]

51 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

a bit over an inch here but it has been dry, lawns look end of July tired already

And the leaves are getting that leathery look

[dendrite]

We sun. Up to 67°

[SouthCoastMA]

Looks like some more rain later this afternoon for south coast. Islands might be the best spot

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1.5” 24 hour total for Greenfield 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Morrissey boulevard of the South Coast.

Peabody route 1

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks like your about to rain again.. enjoy 

He never listens.

[kdxken]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Peabody route 1

Route 9 in Chestnut Hill.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it was sarcasm. I was still in D1 last week. 

Yeah.  that whole monitoring system is both needed, but is also in need (imho) of some sort of reevaluation of technique.

I took a deeper dive and read 'how' they come up with it a while ago.  It's a combination of empirically derived, plus human perpsective.  If I recall right it's 3 blended aspects:  2-layer time -dependent of deeper layer vs surface recency, then opinionated by human Climo and Mets. 

It 'sounds' good on paper that way, but mmm     

When wells are supplying, area res are 80+ if not topped, and rivers a meandering just fine, something seems off with all that orange.

[vortex95]

On 6/21/2026 at 2:32 PM, Brewbeer said:

If you aren’t the target audience for those posts then it’s not really surprising they don’t appeal to you.

You are missing the point. Target audience is not the issue.  It's how things are handled and communicated.  When you commit logical fallacies and display clear biases, cognitive or otherwise, that skews the truth or outright lies, influencing perception of many, and this biased information get shared across social media.

How is this good for society overall?  Science communication should be objective and present *all* data, reasonable views/sides, and note caveats/shortcoming of the data/findings, not cherry- pick to promote a particular narrative  That's bad science and disingenuous.

And calling those out for it or noting errors is part of the scientific process.  Science is self-correcting and evolves over time, not ever "settled." 

[vortex95]

On 6/21/2026 at 3:34 PM, powderfreak said:

 

Well played, Tip .

This is not a "contest."  It is a discussion forum.  And the fact the hot wx looks like it will occur irrelevant here.  I was talking about the overuse and obsession w/ "heat dome" and other concocted labels/terms the media focused on to hype.

[vortex95]

On 6/21/2026 at 3:36 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Third absolute downpour of the last 2 hours. 

From a former co-worker:

"I'm up the First CT Lake and its overflowing. River is 10x the normal summer flow and completely unfishable. Locals saying they've never seen the lake this high."

[Typhoon Tip]

heh ..maybe we will get some brightening sooner than thought?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

seems to be collapsing S while thinning

[vortex95]

On 6/21/2026 at 3:41 PM, 78Blizzard said:

This is now the 3rd time in the past month or so that the GFS has shown 100+F temps.  The Euro isn't biting with a strong high out west, which it's been showing for several runs now.

I think we need another GFS rewrite. It's such a warmista.

 

Since GFSX MOS only goes out 8 days, I assume you are looking at 2 m temps?  I would not use 2 m temps beyond 5 days as they get whacked often b/c the do not incorporate climo stats like MOS does.  Same goes for ECMWF.  I've seen the GFS 2 m temps a number of times over the years show 110 for BOS DY7 are beyond.

[vortex95]

On 6/21/2026 at 4:29 PM, CoastalWx said:

We love violence 

"VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL"

[vortex95]

On 6/21/2026 at 7:24 PM, Torch Tiger said:

645 pm or so

Looks like Heatmiser!