Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[CoastalWx]

Fall River is always the FFW capitol.

[BrianW]

Congrats GON with a drought busting 3 inches of rain.

 

 

[Lava Rock]

We are now at 10.55” for June. That’s pretty impressive, considering we haven’t had any major flooding. 
 

Damn. After last night's rain, we're only at 4".

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

6.40” in the last 26 days.

Tough way to run 

The next drought monitor should be fun. 

[512high]

1.24" last 24 hours so far...(home Davis)

[SouthCoastMA]

About an inch in the last 15 min

from a month plus of stein to a flooded yard..

[Baroclinic Zone]

Guessing around .75” here.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Guessing around .75” here.

Drenched in SSNE. 1.12 here

[Ginx snewx]

On 6/21/2026 at 8:23 AM, kdxken said:

Can you post your app link again please.

Ginxweather.com 

[CoastalWx]

3-5” south coast 

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1.09

Kev knew 

You got steined. Rain was all over 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR has handled this terribly . This batch is about it . Should wind down shortly .An inch give or take should do it. Which is double what i thought 

 

12 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Congrats on a good soaking tonight and tomorrow 

 

9 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

enjoy your soaking 

Kev knew 

1.09” 

[dendrite]

lol you got 7-10’d nostradamus

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

lol you got 7-10’d nostradamus

Yeah, he did not know.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol you got 7-10’d nostradamus

We Nostra.

Nostra knows his area 

[CoastalWx]

Nostradumbass?

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

6.40” in the last 26 days.

Tough way to run 

The next drought monitor should be fun. 

1.9" since yesterday, sitting at 3.5" for the month, 5" since May 29

[Chrisrotary12]

What a horrible day.... dark, dreary and the occasional downpour.

[Brian5671]

Nice soaker here-winding down now.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What a horrible day.... dark, dreary and the occasional downpour.

Great for the last half day of school.  Keeps some kids at home, keeps the others calm...  less sticking to stuff

[HoarfrostHubb]

0.95" so far    

[SouthCoastMA]

2.66"

[CoastalWx]

Sounds like the bottom sagamore bridge is loaded with stranded cars. Congrats @SouthCoastMA

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sounds like the bottom sagamore bridge is loaded with stranded cars. Congrats @SouthCoastMA

Thanks, we waited long and hard for this moment

[CoastalWx]

This guy is a clown. lol. 
 

[SouthCoastMA]

another downpour moving in..should eclipse 3" soon.

 max rainfall rate reached 5.88" in/hr on ambient

[SouthCoastMA]

Correction, misread the station

3.04" since midnight

3.39" storm total

[CoastalWx]

Wonder if the beachcomber washes away again 

[tunafish]

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Damn. After last night's rain, we're only at 4".

 

2.52" yesterday

5.18" MTD

16.30" since 4/1

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

6.40” in the last 26 days.

Tough way to run 

The next drought monitor should be fun. 

Wait, that seems like a decent dose/time there.     which way is your sarcasm pointing ?

1.3" for the 2-day total here.  Looks on rad like we're about to go languid mist from here on out N-W of ORH-BOS.   Might clear at 5 o'clock ?

The NAM nailed this thing from about 30 hours out.  The Globals might have been a little rich on QPF?  not totally sure there. 

General audience:  

Ensembles look very close to a major heat headline-able event from ~ D8+ thru model fuzziness.  This was a vague signal some 10 days ago, way out along the emergent modeling horizon. It has since been inconsistently showing up and fading ... something like a 1.3 steps ahead by 1.10 steps back... but slowly gaining coherence.  This overnight looks 70-ish percent confidence for a N/A mid latitude heat dome with less certainty whether it gets in here.  If so, it would be over the top - the ridge axis being 90-ish W instructs the NW delivery.  Which looks plausible in the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFS and GEP.   The GEPs in fact looked quite fantastic/best for purer heat delivery around D9, as it was an over top delivery that then morphs into this,

So the uncertainty with all this is the operational versions are being cute with convective shrapnel if not meso-beta scale synoptic waves ejecting out of the trough in the west, racing over the ridge top and probably sending outflow this and general warmth denting that, and seeing as we're at the eastern fragile end of that wave-space/curvature field, I'd go ahead a call that the operational models engineering any means plausible to physics to stop a heat wave signal from actually taking place  LOL.   seems like that some times. 

Here are the EPS/GEFs ensembles in the meantime, for D9-ish