Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[powderfreak]

56 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

This is not a "contest."  It is a discussion forum.  And the fact the hot wx looks like it will occur irrelevant here.  I was talking about the overuse and obsession w/ "heat dome" and other concocted labels/terms the media focused on to hype.

Absolutely, sorry if that came off as having a “winner” or “loser”.

It’s a discussion board, so it was a little funny that after 6 paragraphs about the overuse of “heat dome”, that Tip writes a one liner about a massive heat dome in the long range.

Hopefully we can see a little of the humor in that sequence of posts.

[weathafella]

On 6/20/2026 at 4:37 PM, ineedsnow said:

ya its well above but only because of that one crappy week.. it hasn't been constant 

Actually most days have been AOA although yesterday and today no.  Remember, it’s June and this month averages about 5-7F less than July so expectations should be kept in check.  July looks to start hot but what’s Independence Day without heat?

[OceanStWx]

Never trust a lake around here.

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408078&postcount=14

Could be a tornado, could be an area of enhanced wind. Trying to dig up drone video from Tuftonboro. This is from last Thursday.

[Brewbeer]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

You are missing the point. Target audience is not the issue.  It's how things are handled and communicated.  When you commit logical fallacies and display clear biases, cognitive or otherwise, that skews the truth or outright lies, influencing perception of many, and this biased information get shared across social media.

How is this good for society overall?  Science communication should be objective and present *all* data, reasonable views/sides, and note caveats/shortcomings of the data/findings, not cherry-pick to promote a particular narrative  That's bad science and disingenuous.

And calling those out for it or noting errors is part of the scientific process.  Science is self-correcting and evolves over time, not ever "settled." 

real scientists dont use twitter or instagram to communicate complex science 

they use BB forums 

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, Brewbeer said:

real scientists dont use twitter or instagram to communicate complex science 

they use BB forums 

I note you are being facetious here, which is ok. 

Social media I would argue is what influences the population most now, way more than traditional media like TV.

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Never trust a lake around here.

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408078&postcount=14

Could be a tornado, could be an area of enhanced wind. Trying to dig up drone video from Tuftonboro. This is from last Thursday.

When was this?  The big tor day that CoastalWx was all excited about recently?  LOL.

[dendrite]

[vortex95]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually most days have been AOA although yesterday and today no.  Remember, it’s June and this month averages about 5-7F less than July so expectations should be kept in check.  July looks to start hot but what’s Independence Day without heat?

I'm glad you brought up temp anomalies.  

This may have been mentioned prior, but I think the temp sensor at BOS is running at least 1 F too warm.  Through 6/22, Logan is running 5.4 F above avg for the month.  No other long-term climate location in New England is higher than 3.9 above for the month.  Examples: PVD 3.9, ORH 3.8, CON 3.4,and BDL 2.1 above avg for the month so far.

And I did a check of May.  BOS +2.4, but PVD +1.1, ORH -0.3, CON -0.4, and BDL -0.6.  This discrepancy may go back further.

This goes to show that even 1 F off for temp is a big deal when over an extended period, and that significance increases as you get further out.  1 F avg higher for a year is more significant than 1 F higher than avg for a month, as one example.  See how wx sensor issues, never mind UHI, can skew temp records and easily give an unrealistic picture of trends if not addressed in a timely fashion?

Temp sensor calibration and other issues are nothing new,  EWR had a +2 F bias for a few years this decade.  I think it is corrected now, but it was *so* obvious there was an issue.  Every month, EWR was 2 F warmer than NYC, LGA, and JFK, and the distance from EWR to all 3 of these locations is 20 mi or less, so no way EWR did not have a warm bias.  

Sometimes a warm bias at location is due to new construction nearby or the temp sensor re-located, and in both cases artificial heat sources contaminate the temp readings.  What's worse, most of the time, these obvious errors go into the official climate record uncorrected.  See the issue here?  When wx stats are reported to us, we assume that they are accurate.  Not always, and systemic errors do add up over time and can make a big difference.  But rarely do you see any outlet, big or small, mention the margin of error/uncertainty in measurements or note there is a problem at a site.

And one important item that complicates the issue.  ASOS/AWOS are designed primarily for *aviation* use.  This means VIS, cloud cover/height, wind, and altimeter take precedence, and T/Td are secondary.  And most climate sites in the U.S. and globally are located at airports, which is not ideal due to UHI and proximity to large swaths of asphalt and jet exhaust.  So being skeptical of the temp records and trends are certainly justified, and the bias is warmer, not cooler, so the large-scale warming that has occurred is not as high as it is said.
 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Never trust a lake around here.

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408078&postcount=14

Could be a tornado, could be an area of enhanced wind. Trying to dig up drone video from Tuftonboro. This is from last Thursday.

It’s always Tuftonboro

[vortex95]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s always Tuftonboro

And never Ossipee?   The Weymouth of the North!

[dendrite]

GWDLT

Hopefully the circulation around the coop had something to do with it.

Welch was also hit hard. Lots of open lake for that SW wind right into Cow too. It’s all in line with that path of higher wind. 

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, kdxken said:

Morrissey boulevard of the South Coast.

 

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

When was this?  The big tor day that CoastalWx was all excited about recently?  LOL.

Yeah, the tornado watch day.

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s always Tuftonboro

It's not like I wasn't watching it closely, but it's a real kick in the groin when I look back and see I dropped an image in Slack for the media partners at 4:10 pm saying this was an interesting looking line break and probably about as far north as the instability would support a tornado risk. Yet it was still too broad for me to issue a tornado warning. 

Remains to be seen if it was a tornado. It just as easily could've been a microburst that expanded out into Tuftonboro. There is a relatively straight line of damage, but as it left Winni the damage was over 2000 ft wide. That's pretty large for a QLCS tornado. 

[weatherwiz]

Lets rip in an MCS from Canada

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, the tornado watch day.

It's not like I wasn't watching it closely, but it's a real kick in the groin when I look back and see I dropped an image in Slack for the media partners at 4:10 pm saying this was an interesting looking line break and probably about as far north as the instability would support a tornado risk. Yet it was still too broad for me to issue a tornado warning. 

Remains to be seen if it was a tornado. It just as easily could've been a microburst that expanded out into Tuftonboro. There is a relatively straight line of damage, but as it left Winni the damage was over 2000 ft wide. That's pretty large for a QLCS tornado. 

My uncle has a place in Tuftonboro and they had a microburst there a few years ago. Just a few hundred yards from his property. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Actually most days have been AOA although yesterday and today no.  Remember, it’s June and this month averages about 5-7F less than July so expectations should be kept in check.  July looks to start hot but what’s Independence Day without heat?

July here is 5.1° warmer than June, thanks to the long plateau from 7/6 thru 8/10 in which the average temp varies only 1.1°.  I don't have June 1-3, other than the 84 max on the 3rd, warmest on the max-min while we traveled.  Though 6/4-22 had 9 BN days and 10 AN, the average is 2.8 AN thanks to the heat of 10-13.  When I derive 1-3 (from nearby sites), it's probably about +3 for 1-22.  If it finishes there, 6/26 would rank 4th or 5th warmest of 29.

[Snowedin]

7 hours ago, amarshall said:

I haven’t moved in an hour . Rt 6 flooded




.

As if the sagamore wasnt already a huge bitch to drive through..what a nightmare