Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[SnoSki14]

24 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

our climate is coming for you

It already has. NYC used to have their climate only a few decades ago. Now they have what we did. 

[qg_omega]

Given this is the strongest El Niño in recorded history combined with AGW I can’t see how this isn’t the warmest winter on record across the CONUS

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Given this is the strongest El Niño in recorded history combined with AGW I can’t see how this isn’t the warmest winter on record across the CONUS

Warmth isn't evenly distributed. Several LR models have the US as the coldest anomaly on earth while the rest of the planet torches. 

It all depends on where the ridges set up. Despite that you can never go wrong with saying it'll be an AN winter temperature wise in today's AGW era. 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Given this is the strongest El Niño in recorded history combined with AGW I can’t see how this isn’t the warmest winter on record across the CONUS

Its not only about the El Nino. Of course it will be warmer than last winter . I guess no one learned about long range forecasting after the long range forecasting busts in the past few years.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It already has. NYC used to have their climate only a few decades ago. Now they have what we did. 

Forky is always fear mongering. I remember him and others were saying how we will not get a hecs for a long time or even 40 plus inch winters. Well look at last winter. 

[JACKASS]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its not only about the El Nino. Of course it will be warmer than last winter . I guess no one learned about long range forecasting after the long range forecasting busts in the past few years.

But you did?

Only to constantly post the snowiest winter outlooks you could find from x/twitter, In multiple sub forums!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just accept it’s gonna be a warmer winter. Things may break, things may not. Such is life. 

[Typhoon Tip]

May be a winter hosting unusual anomaly/extremes around the hemisphere - more so than climo.     

For one, warm ENSOs are notorious for that, anyway, but as qc_omega intimated, with CC underneath I find it difficult to imagine a better arena for synergistic feedback.  Huge changeability that ranges between somewhat below normal to outlandishly above normal.  Basically a bigger variance gap than usual, repositioned on the warmer side of climate.     

 

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, JACKASS said:

But you did?

Only to constantly post the snowiest winter outlooks you could find from x/twitter, In multiple sub forums!

I post everything. 

And no one else has a problem with that except you. Get a life. You are a JACKASS .

[moneypitmike]

On 8/13/2026 at 9:47 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

What's the record minimum?

[MarcmmKU]

On 8/15/2026 at 10:24 AM, qg_omega said:

Given this is the strongest El Niño in recorded history combined with AGW I can’t see how this isn’t the warmest winter on record across the CONUS

I don't see it being the warmest for the entire CONUS i think there will be plenty of western troughs and storminess. record warm for northeast however is almost a given, especially december.

[qg_omega]

29 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

I don't see it being the warmest for the entire CONUS i think there will be plenty of western troughs and storminess. record warm for northeast however is almost a given, especially december.

Disagree this is CONUS 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I don't see it being the warmest for the entire CONUS i think there will be plenty of western troughs and storminess. record warm for northeast however is almost a given, especially december.

It wouldn't surprise me if it was because the anomalies under the core of that ridge are going to dwarf the cooler anomalies in association with the STJ to the south and east. There is a TON of heat being displaced.

[Go Kart Mozart]

So, the overwhelming majority opinion is that given the super duper el-Nino and warming background state, we will have a warm and unsnowy winter, a la 1998.  Frankly, I am in the 1998 camp myself....with perfect benchmark lows that give us no snow, as alluded to by Weathafella a few posts back.

Tell me what can go "wrong" here.  Are there feasible scenarios where this winter might overachieve?  After all, history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men!

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

So, the overwhelming majority opinion is that given the super duper el-Nino and warming background state, we will have a warm and unsnowy winter, a la 1998.  Frankly, I am in the 1998 camp myself....with perfect benchmark lows that give us no snow, as alluded to by Weathafella a few posts back.

Tell me what can go "wrong" here.  Are there feasible scenarios where this winter might overachieve?  After all, history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men!

NAO throws a wild card and we get repeated lengthy -NAO periods. Unfavored though since the QBO and solar cycle are wrong. But the nao is the one thing that could lead to a snowier outcome than expected.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

With dimentia don’s sky high oil prices, a warm winter will be just fine.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

So, the overwhelming majority opinion is that given the super duper el-Nino and warming background state, we will have a warm and unsnowy winter, a la 1998.  Frankly, I am in the 1998 camp myself....with perfect benchmark lows that give us no snow, as alluded to by Weathafella a few posts back.

Tell me what can go "wrong" here.  Are there feasible scenarios where this winter might overachieve?  After all, history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men!

We could get a 2-3 week period of winter ala 2015-16-have to hope for something in that small window if it does indeed appear

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With dimentia don’s sky high oil prices, a warm winter will be just fine.

No kidding....I typically top my tank off this time of year and pay the lowest price per gallon. Just checked and it is $4.58 per gallon and on the rise, for comparison, I paid $2.75 per gallon last year. Most of my heating comes from a wood stove, so I really only use around 100 gallons per year. Can't imagine how much the price will be come fall, into winter, let alone what the current lock in rates are right now, I have no clue?!. Literally going to costs thousands more just to heat your home. Hoping for a warm winter for all if that is the case...