Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I’m not worried about 2015-16 because that was something so absurd and record breaking that I think even that pattern repeated again would be snowier.

Maybe that’s a poor assumption on my part but at least on Mount Mansfield where most of my knowledge is rooted in, I take some comfort in that even a standard deviation on the bad side of normal is still a lot snowier than 15-16.

I do think there’s definitely concern about a strong El Niño though.  But there’s a fine line in there where our normals are cold enough to snow decently even with a +4 or +5 winter month (could also be heavy snows at elevation, lackluster in valleys)… but it’s once it gets to +7 or +8 that we often tip the scale to real bad at all elevations.

We’ve also seen the El Ninos that have had below normal snow and snowpack down where people live but 2,000+ feet is buried in multiple marginal events.

March 2026 in the American west seemed absurd too until it happened.