2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Looking at the ensembles and other guidance, I do think if the overall 500mb pattern is true...we might get a shot at more NW flow-style severe events beyond the first week of August. While not perfect matches, I do see an similar angle to the 500mb flow from some of our notable severe events from the past. 

[CAPE]

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Public Information Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
740 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...NWS Damage Survey for 07/28/26 Tornado Event...

.Overview...

Severe storms moved into the region during the afternoon of July 
28. One of the storms that progressed through Talbot County 
Maryland produced two distinct tornadoes in Trappe, Maryland. 
Multiple witnesses reported the tornado that affected the Backtown
Road fully dissipated before the storm crossed over Highway 50. 
The storm then produced another tornado on the east side of 
Highway 50 near Tarbutton Mill Road.

The NWS would like to thank Talbot County Emergency Management 
and area residents for their assistance in this survey.

.Backtown Road Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:    90-100 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.15 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   30 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             July 28, 2026
Start Time:             6:12 PM EDT
Start Location:         1 Mile N Trappe / Talbot County / MD
Start Lat/Lon:          38.6719 / -76.0602

End Date:               July 28, 2026
End Time:               6:13 PM EDT
End Location:           1.1 Miles N Trappe / Talbot County / MD
End Lat/Lon:            38.6734 / -76.0592

Survey Summary: 

Tree damage was noted behind an industrial park on Backtown Road.
The highest estimated wind speeds were from roof damage to one of
the large metal buildings in the industrial park. The metal roof 
covering was blown off and some of the roof trusses were damaged. 
Next to the industrial park large branches were broken on trees 
in the yard of a residence. The last damage noted was a distinct 
convergent damage path through part of a corn field on the north 
side of Backtown Road. Beginning and end points of this path are 
estimated due to lack of access.


.Tarbutton Mill Road Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:    70-80 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.34 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   30 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             July 28 2026 
Start Time:             6:18 PM EDT
Start Location:         1.4 NNE Trappe / Talbot County / MD
Start Lat/Lon:          38.6786 / -76.0519

End Date:               July 28 2026
End Time:               6:19 PM EDT
End Location:           1.6 NE Trappe / Talbot County / MD
End Lat/Lon:            38.6792 / -76.0456

Survey Summary: 

The first damage at this location noted was a large branch broken
from a tree. The tornado continued roughly eastward with 
convergent damage noted in a corn field. At the eastern extent of 
the damage, two farm outbuildings sustained damage to their roofs.
For one building the roofing was completely uplifted, including 
support beams. For the other building, part of the metal roofing 
was blown off. 


&&

[yoda]

Apparently Sunday is a isolated threat?

[Random Chaos]

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
658 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...NWS Damage Survey for 07/28/26 Tornado Event...

.Overview...A line of severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
moved through the area during the evening of Tuesday, July 28th,
2026. Changing wind speed and direction with height, enhanced by
a localized bay breeze along the Chesapeake Bay`s Western Shore,
caused the storms to rotate, which resulted in at least three
tornadoes in Anne Arundel County, Maryland.

As additional information is received and reviewed, additional
surveys or statements may be issued in the next few days.

.Tornado #1: Riviera Beach Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:    85 mph
Path Length /statute/:  1.1 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   90 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             Jul 28, 2026
Start Time:             6:04 PM EDT
Start Location:         Riviera Beach / Anne Arundel County / MD
Start Lat/Lon:          39.1736 / -76.5256

End Date:               Jul 28, 2026
End Time:               6:08 PM EDT
End Location:           Sunset Beach / Anne Arundel County / MD
End Lat/Lon:            39.1584 / -76.5225

Survey Summary:
What likely began as a waterspout moving toward the south-
southwest over the tidal Patapsco River moved onshore along Cox
Creek in the Riviera Beach area of northeastern Anne Arundel
County. A grill was flipped and numerous trees were snapped near
the top, falling in a convergent manner near the intersection of
Waterview Drive and Riverside Drive.

The tornado continued toward the south, where a street sign was
bent and large sections of siding were removed from a house near
the intersection of Waterview Drive and Hilltop Road; numerous
trees were downed in a convergent manner on this block, as well.
Large tree limbs and tree tops were snapped near the intersection
of West End Drive and Park Place, with additional large limbs
twisted off and tops of trees sheared off near the intersection of
West End Drive and Fieldstone Place.

The tornado then crossed Stoney Creek near the bridge on MD-173
Fort Smallwood Road, before felling additional trees and a power
pole prior to dissipating in the Sunset Beach area.

The National Weather Service thanks trained spotters, media, and
local emergency officials for their assistance in this survey.


.Tornado #2: Lake Shore Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:    100 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.7 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             Jul 28, 2026
Start Time:             6:15 PM EDT
Start Location:         Grays Creek / Anne Arundel County / MD
Start Lat/Lon:          39.0941 / -76.4699

End Date:               Jul 28, 2026
End Time:               6:17 PM EDT
End Location:           Magothy River / Anne Arundel County / MD
End Lat/Lon:            39.0848 / -76.4680

Survey Summary:
A tornado descended around Patapsco Road where a few trees were
uprooted and snapped. As the tornado tracked through New York
Avenue and Magothy Road, the intensity of the wind increased with
numerous trees uprooted along with a power pole and several tree
trunks snapped. A boat was also lofted into the air, over a pier,
and onto a jet ski. Damage was laying in different directions,
indicative of rotation. A large tree also fell onto a house. Another
home off Magothy Road had roof singles ripped off, along
with a loss of some siding.

The tornado tracked over Grays Creek and more trees were uprooted
along Dobbins lane. Numerous trees were uprooted along Edgewater
Road with damage facing different directions. A few tree trunks
were snapped as well. The end of the damage path was observed just
south of Edgewater Road along the Magothy River. A security camera
here recorded the swirling winds passing through.

The National Weather Service thanks the Anna Arundel County MD Office
of Emergency Management for their assistance with this survey.


.Tornado #3: Arnold/Cape Saint Claire Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:    100 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.5 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   75 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             Jul 28, 2026
Start Time:             6:17 PM EDT
Start Location:         Arnold / Anne Arundel / MD
Start Lat/Lon:          39.0546 / -76.4648

End Date:               Jul 28, 2026
End Time:               6:19 PM EDT
End Location:           Cape Saint Claire / Anne Arundel / MD
End Lat/Lon:            39.0564 / -76.4592

Survey Summary:
A tornado touched down in a wooded area north of Shore Acres Road
in the 900 block, with trees snapped at the top. The tornado
tracked east crossing Lake Drive in Cape Saint Claire. Significant
tree damage was observed in a convergent direction. Many healthy
hardwood trees up to a few feet in diameter were toppled. On Lake
Drive, and a garage door of a house was completely blown in, with
some insulation removed.

The National Weather Service thanks the Anna Arundel County MD Office
of Emergency Management for their assistance with this survey.

 

[vortex95]

9 tors in WV on 7/21 confirmed now.  That is the second most in a day for the state on record, behind the 10 on 4/2/2024.

Now 13 tors for 2026 in WV.  They had 20 in 2024 for a yearly record.

WV I always thought as a gap for tors since avg  per year 1991-2010 was only 2 and a lot less than all the surrounding states.  But I think the advent of mobile device cameras and static cameras everywhere by the late 2000s, along w/ the dual-pol radar upgrade in the early 2010s has changed things to reveal what is really going on and this has closed the gap as to the fact that much of WV is so rural.

[Kmlwx]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

9 tors in WV on 7/21 confirmed now.  That is the second most in a day for the state on record, behind the 10 on 4/2/2024.

Now 13 tors for 2026 in WV.  They had 20 in 2024 for a yearly record.

WV I always thought as a gap for tors since avg  per year 1991-2010 was only 2 and a lot less than all the surrounding states.  But I think the advent of mobile devices cameras and static cameras everywhere by the late 2000s, along w/ the dual-pol radar upgrade in the early 2010s has change things to reveal what is really going on and this has closed the gap as to the fact that much of WV is so rural.

Stats are funny/cool. One thing I've always considered is that on some potential severe weather days, the CIPS guidance will often have a locally higher "bullseye" of probabilities roughly centered over the DC area. I do not think that is necessarily purely authentic. Since it is correlated to storm reports in the analogs it finds, it is reasonable to assume that it will highlight areas where there are more storm reports in an analog....and of course, a heavily populated urban area is going to have a higher concentration on a comparable severe event that happens over a rural area. 

[snowfan]

So it appears we are now at 5 confirmed TORs in the local area from the other day. This, after a well known local weather personality questioned spc issuing the tor watch. Gotta love it

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So it appears we are now at 5 confirmed TORs in the local area from the other day. This, after a well known local weather personality questioned spc issuing the tor watch. Gotta love it

That individual just likes to be contrarian for NWS/SPC. 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, snowfan said:

So it appears we are now at 5 confirmed TORs in the local area from the other day. This, after a well known local weather personality questioned spc issuing the tor watch. Gotta love it

When you see a ton of blue dots for svr winds reports in an area that first day and no red dots for tors, always go back and check the SPC reports for that day for several days after the event.  Sometimes lots of red dots show up from post-storm surveys.  In the SEUS for big winter/spring QLCS events w/ many winds reports. I've seen more than a dozen tors show up eventually as post-storm surveys are done.

[yoda]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Tuesday...

   A broader-scale trough is forecast over central Canada into the
   north-central U.S. with a series of subtle disturbances moving
   through the base of that feature. At the surface, a front is
   expected to move through the upper Great Lakes with the western
   extension of the boundary settling slowly south through the central
   High Plains. A severe weather threat may materialize from the mid MO
   Valley into the central High Plains along the front and in the
   post-frontal upslope, where an overlap of moderate instability and
   stronger vertical shear is expected to reside.

   Elsewhere, a more widespread area of moderate instability developing
   across southern AZ could support a locally greater risk of severe
   storms. 

   The extent of the severe weather threat in both areas is currently
   too uncertain to delineate an area. 
    

   ...Day 5/Wednesday...

   The broad, cyclonic flow regime will continue over the north-central
   CONUS with a belt of slightly enhanced mid-level winds extending
   from the northern Rockies through the northern and central Plains
   into the Great Lakes. At the surface, the previously mentioned front
   will continue through the Great Lakes with the boundary extending
   southwest through the mid MS Valley into the central or southern
   High Plains. Similar to Day 4/Tuesday, some severe weather appears
   possible along the boundary over the lower MO into mid MS Valleys,
   as well as within the post-frontal upslope across the central High
   Plains. 

   The subtle nature of the forcing for ascent leads to uncertainty in
   severe storm coverage, so no area will be included. 


   ...Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday...

   The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting
   the continuation of an upper high over the southwestern U.S. with
   lower-amplitude troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
   At the surface, there is considerable model spread in the location
   of relevant boundaries that might focus severe storms. That being
   said, much of the available AI guidance suggests an increasing
   severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic during this time frame. 

   Model trends will continue to be monitored for the possible
   inclusion of an area in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Mead.. 08/01/2026

 

[vortex95]

Looks pretty good for gully-washer tstms Sunday.  GFS/ECMWF show PWATs over 2" (max 2.5") for the entire region.  SW to NE training a good bet in some areas w/ the HRRR showing a 5.93" max just SW of DC.  RRFS is similar to the HRRR. just not as high w/ the QPF maxes, but the point is the atmosphere is primed to big rains.

A full-latitude, positively-titled trough to our W w/ broad SW flow over us should easily support some big QPF. 

Showers/sct tstms already in wrn VA and it all slowly moves E during the day, continuing into early Mon AM.  

Svr risk is marginal.  Some supercell structures could be supported for short times.

01/18z ECMWF gives SHRA/TSRA every day through Thu.  Nothing stands out for sig svr, just persistent, moist SW cyclonic flow, so lots of tstm activity.

[yoda]

From SPC day 4 to 8 outlook this morning 

Days 5 and 6/ Thursday and Friday...

   A slight eastward shift of the mean trough position is forecast on
   Thursday with some model signal for an embedded short-wave trough to
   move through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is some
   suggestion that a weak front or wind shift will move into the
   northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon with the trailing
   extension of that boundary stretching through the mid MS Valley into
   the southern High Plains. Ahead of that boundary, widespread 70+ F
   dewpoints are expected from New England into the Mid-Atlantic and
   Carolinas, leading to moderate to potentially strong instability.
   The greatest potential for a few severe storms appears to be across
   the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon where the moderate instability
   will coincide with a belt of 30-40 kt mid-level flow.

   Some severe weather threat may also develop in the Ozark Plateau and
   AZ Thursday afternoon and evening.  
    
   On Friday, the above-mentioned Great Lakes short-wave trough is
   expected to shear northeast across southern ON with 30-40 kt of
   mid-level flow prevailing over the Northeast. The surface pattern is
   somewhat disorganized with some semblance of a trough from southern
   New England through the Mid-Atlantic coastal region. Moderate to
   strong instability may again develop ahead of that feature,
   supporting the potential for some severe weather threat during the
   afternoon and early evening hours. However, the strongest vertical
   shear is forecast to remain to the north of the stronger
   instability, leading to uncertainty in the magnitude of the severe
   threat.


   ...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...

   The various 00Z ensemble mean solutions indicate a slight eastward
   shift of an upper low near Hudson Bay with low-amplitude troughing
   and strengthening mid-level flow moving into the Northeast.
   Southerly low-level winds within the western periphery of a surface
   high positioned off the Atlantic Coast will maintain a moist and
   unstable air mass beneath the strengthening winds aloft. As such,
   some severe weather threat is expected to persist from the
   Mid-Atlantic into New England this period.

   Elsewhere, there is some model signal for a surface front to move
   into the Midwest, where some severe weather potential may exist.

[SnowenOutThere]

10 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Looks pretty good for gully-washer tstms Sunday.  GFS/ECMWF show PWATs over 2" (max 2.5") for the entire region.  SW to NE training a good bet in some areas w/ the HRRR showing a 5.93" max just SW of DC.  RRFS is similar to the HRRR. just not as high w/ the QPF maxes, but the point is the atmosphere is primed to big rains.

A full-latitude, positively-titled trough to our W w/ broad SW flow over us should easily support some big QPF. 

Showers/sct tstms already in wrn VA and it all slowly moves E during the day, continuing into early Mon AM.  

Svr risk is marginal.  Some supercell structures could be supported for short times.

01/18z ECMWF gives SHRA/TSRA every day through Thu.  Nothing stands out for sig svr, just persistent, moist SW cyclonic flow, so lots of tstm activity.

The 12z sounding from IAD seems pretty juiced. Nearly saturated atmosphere all the way up. I think the most interesting thing is how convective temp is only 81 degrees. 

[Kmlwx]

Everything "feels" juiced today. At least for heavy rain. Was driving from Odenton back to my folk's house in Colesville and it started lightly raining and I wasn't even under any returns on the LWX radar. 

[vortex95]

51 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The 12z sounding from IAD seems pretty juiced. Nearly saturated atmosphere all the way up. I think the most interesting thing is how convective temp is only 81 degrees. 

Tropical sounding.  Lapse rates all below 5.5 C/km, but that's ok b/c the deep layer high dew points make up for it, and just a small amount of heating sets things off.  That's why the convective temp is so low, as noted.  K-index 38 and PWAT 2.16", so there is your juice!

0-6 km shear 31 kt so close to support supercells.  Low-level turning on the hodograph not bad either.