2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Watch box out to our north, $20 says it's going to be multiple watches.

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I like that implies we will get upstream storms, so at the very least we should get a nice rainy/thundery evening from whatever remnants can make it our way. Sort of similar to our last setup and getting the MCS from WV. 

      Sort of.  That day involved some local storms that initiated followed by the main band along the forcing arriving from the northwest during the evening hours.   This looks to be a line forming just to our northwest during the early/mid afternoon and rolling through at dinner time before making a quick exit.   There is some curvature in the hodographs, so the tornado threat is definitely non-zero, although the forcing may result in a more linear structure.

       The box will go up for northern sections first, because there is good cam agreement on an initial wave of storms for northeast MD/PA/NJ earlier this afternoon.

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch box out to our north, $20 says it's going to be multiple watches.

    You're not exactly going out on a limb with that prediction....  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

    You're not exactly going out on a limb with that prediction....  

I only make the sure bets. Vegas can't have all the fun.

[SolidIcewx]

Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...northern/central Virginia...and southern Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 281804Z - 282000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon. Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching cold front across West Virginia, mostly sunny skies across portions of northern/central Virginia has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE are noted across the region as a result. Strong mid-level flow is supporting deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Flow is generally perpendicular to the front, which may support a mix of clusters and supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support potential for downward momentum transfer and damaging wind. With any supercell structures that can maintain, large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible. More modest low-level shear may somewhat limit the tornado potential initially, though the low-level jet may increase into the late afternoon. A watch will be needed soon to cover this potential.

[wxmeddler]

[Eskimo Joe]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for for everyone until 10 pm.

[WxUSAF]

Already storms popping in Loudoun and WV panhandle 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Already storms popping in Loudoun and WV panhandle 

They seem to have a bit of a severe shape to them. Not as extreme as last week when we had better hodographs, but still a good warm sector flow with some organization. The main thing I like seeing is the line of storms swinging into MD starting to fill in a bit more. 

[yoda]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VAC015-091-282000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0315.000000T0000Z-260728T2000Z/
Augusta VA-Highland VA-
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN AUGUSTA AND SOUTHERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES...

At 302 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Burnsville, or 9 miles southwest of Monterey, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Craigsville, Augusta Springs, Deerfield, Williamsville, Clover Creek,
Mustoe, Vanderpool, Bolar, Mill Gap, and Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 7981 3833 7977 3836 7976 3836 7973
      3838 7973 3842 7970 3817 7922 3798 7930
      3809 7949 3817 7944 3817 7948 3815 7953
      3818 7951 3820 7957 3822 7971 3827 7980
      3828 7979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 308DEG 29KT 3830 7968

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

 

[yoda]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Highland County in western Virginia...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 310 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Burnsville, or 12 miles southwest of Monterey,
  moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Highland County, including the following locations...
  Williamsville and Bolar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 7972 3820 7949 3819 7949 3818 7952
      3820 7957 3822 7971 3825 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 315DEG 25KT 3825 7970

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

[yoda]

90/71 at DCA ar 3pm... as @pazzo83 mentioned in the obs thread, thats warmer than forecast (looks like mid 80s was forecast)

[WxUSAF]

Certainly my mental radar extrapolation is we’re going to get a broad QLCS through the metro areas 

[frd]

 Storms forming and more lightning activitiy to the far WNW. Clearing noted ahead of this area. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=EXTENT3&length=24

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Certainly my mental radar extrapolation is we’re going to get a broad QLCS through the metro areas 

I’m expecting dying showers as they drop out of PA that fire back up after they pass me. Hasn’t been a good summer for severe IMBY 

[somecallmetim]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m expecting dying showers as they drop out of PA that fire back up after they pass me. Hasn’t been a good summer for severe IMBY 

Line to your west warned and looking healthy for now.

[MDphotog]

I'm in Frederick at work, but the weather station back home recorded about a half inch of rain and a nice 10 - 15 degree drop in temps.

 

[mappy]

13 minutes ago, somecallmetim said:

Line to your west warned and looking healthy for now.

For now 

[aldie 22]

I really dislike the hit or miss nature of thunderstorms...Stephens City getting it good it appears...my town just got a 7-10 split

[mappy]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

For now 

Thankfully looks like it’s gonna hold (famous last words)

[Wxtrix]

just got a warning for 60 mph winds and half-dollar sized hail. i think the worst of that is going to miss me by less than a mile—good. don’t need hail damage.

[Kmlwx]

Mesoanalysis hail parameters have been increasing the past few hours as well. Matches up with the hail portions of the warnings ramping up. 

[yoda]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland...
  West central Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 416 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near
  Shepherdstown, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is
           large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail
           damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Shepherdstown, Brunswick, Ranson, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont,
  Rohrersville, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville, Antietam,
  Arnoldtown, Moler Crossroads, Knoxville, Petersville,
  Pleasantville, and Bakerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows!

&&

LAT...LON 3935 7790 3942 7787 3945 7760 3932 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 266DEG 15KT 3938 7780

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

 

[yoda]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch REPLACED with Tornado Watch for BR east

[Scraff]

From SVR Watch to Tornado Watch. That escalated quickly. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch REPLACED with Tornado Watch for BR east

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 529
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   420 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     Southern New Jersey
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Northeast Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms tracking eastward across southeast
   Pennsylvania and northern Virginia will move through the watch area
   this afternoon.  Damaging winds remain the primary threat.  However,
   supercell storms may result in a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 10 miles south of Patuxent River MD to
   25 miles north northeast of Philadelphia PA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

 

[LP08]

Looking a little notchy out by front royal

[AlexD1990]

what the heck? I cant remember the last time a SVR got upgraded to a TOR

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

50/10 tor probs