2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[SolidIcewx]

Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Much of Virginia...Maryland...and eastern West Virginia,

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 041649Z - 041915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity while developing eastward through the afternoon. The primary concern will be scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving along the high terrain in WV and southwestern VA this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating and orographic lift will favor increasing thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Downstream, strong diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by 12Z soundings) will support thunderstorm intensification through the afternoon. While fairly weak deep-layer shear may limit overall thunderstorm organization, the aforementioned environment will favor a mix of cells and loosely organized clusters capable of producing scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts across much of VA and eventually into MD. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely for this activity.

[George BM]

Wonder if we get an 18z sounding from LWX today.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, George BM said:

Wonder if we get an 18z sounding from LWX today.

I would assume we would

[yoda]

 

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37548059 38018032 39057934 39427883 39597832 39647744
               39547686 39357649 38907637 38057671 37237763 36667909
               36688013 37028055 37548059 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1491.html

 

[Jrlg1181]

Definitely has been a quick development of cumulus clouds along the mts down here in the past 30 mins..

[yoda]

Updated 1730z SPC OTLK for Day 2 (tomorrow, Sunday) has added 5 hail and 30 wind

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
   Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms
   also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and
   portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...

   A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging
   cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern
   NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing
   will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside
   near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for
   severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening.
   Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper
   shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt
   mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong
   destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected
   by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along
   the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating
   clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until
   storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening.
   Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance
   exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent
   wind probabilities for portions of the region.

[yoda]

 

[Jrlg1181]

33 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Definitely has been a quick development of cumulus clouds along the mts down here in the past 30 mins..

Loud thunder just east of me now toward Afton...

[mappy]

Stay safe everyone out and about today to enjoy festivities 

[Jrlg1181]

32 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Loud thunder just east of me now toward Afton...

Can definitely understand the wind potential for some locations today... Small cell about a mile east of me is giving me some gusts of about 35 to 40 mph... No rain unfortunately but noticeably cooler at moment...

[yoda]

Watch up until 10pm for entire LWX CWA 

 

[Kmlwx]

I’m at the National Arboretum. Hoping I can maximize time here for the planes before convection fires. I’ve got no desire to get stuck here or inside the city when storms hit 

[yoda]

70/30 wind... 20/10 hail in the probs

 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 457
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   215 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Virginia
     Eastern West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms will develop and spread across the
   watch area through the afternoon and early evening, in and hot and
   humid air mass.  Damaging wind gusts are likely with the strongest
   storm clusters.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
   Martinsburg WV to 55 miles south southeast of Roanoke VA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

[high risk]

Dew points have legitimately crashed. That doesn’t seem to be hindering storm development to the west, and irs probably increasing the wind threat (with larger downdraft cape), but it *might* limit coverage a bit.