2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Roger Ramjet]

Socked in the clouds here. Smoke visibility has not changed at all in the last 24 hours.

[frd]

Significant cloud cover to the North, East and West of DC presently. The area of storms in PA really has a crazy outflow as previously mentioned. 

 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Did the models account for this or are we failing as per usual?

Dunno. I assume fail lol. Maybe if the warm front can push through we can partially clear for a few hours?

[high risk]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dunno. I assume fail lol. Maybe if the warm front can push through we can partially clear for a few hours?

       It's very warm to our south, so a fast warmup could absolutely occur, but I'm worried.  While the guidance is all over the place, most initiate storms along the lee trough or some other boundary this afternoon.   That said, the models have most of the area getting into the 90s, so if the clouds from the PA activity retard heating, we could end up with limited / weaker storms.   It's also worth noting that the RRFS really wants to clock us late evening with the line dropping south out of PA, even though most over guidance has it falling apart.  Bottom line is that I'm cautiously optimistic for rainfall today, and the severe threat is real if we get some heating, but there is definitely a path to many of us getting nada.

[SnowenOutThere]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

       It's very warm to our south, so a fast warmup could absolutely occur, but I'm worried.  While the guidance is all over the place, most initiate storms along the lee trough or some other boundary this afternoon.   That said, the models have most of the area getting into the 90s, so if the clouds from the PA activity retard heating, we could end up with limited / weaker storms.   It's also worth noting that the RRFS really wants to clock us late evening with the line dropping south out of PA, even though most over guidance has it falling apart.  Bottom line is that I'm cautiously optimistic for rainfall today, and the severe threat is real if we get some heating, but there is definitely a path to many of us getting nada.

Can tell you the pool deck in chantilly suddenly got hot in the past 20 minutes as there’s a break in the clouds. Shot up from humid and cool to hot and extremely uncomfortable quick. 

[yoda]

Its "sunny" here in Springfield... just you can't tell with the smoky haze 

[yoda]

S winds being reported on the 11am obs up to BWI... 84/75 S at 9 at DCA... C VA like CHO, Culpepper, EZF already upper 80s

[WxUSAF]

Just now, yoda said:

S winds being reported on the 11am obs up to BWI... 84/75 S at 9 at DCA

Sky has brightened 

[batmanbrad]

visible does seem to show some decent clearing as you get west of MoCo...

 

[yoda]

Should be getting a MCD soon, probably in next hour

[yoda]

@high risk could there be some differential heating boundaries later?  I'm assuming that with the rain/storms in PA, the WF will not push as far north and increase risk for a few tornadoes?

[canderson]

From your N in PA. It had been years since we have had constant deep thunder like we have had all morning. 
 

Like @yoda asked I’m curious if all this here shoves south the hatch area. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

@high risk could there be some differential heating boundaries later?  I'm assuming that with the rain/storms in PA, the WF will not push as far north and increase risk for a few tornadoes?

        It's worth watching, for sure.   With the westerly flow aloft, even 190 or 200 degree winds (SSW) at the surface might be enough to make things interesting.   Most of the guidance veers us to more fully southwest ahead of storm development, though, and surface wind speeds may not be particularly strong.   If that's wrong, yes, a tornado or two would be possible.   My guess now is that we'll have some supercell structures (and a tornado warning or two) with the favorable deep-layer shear but not enough low-level shear for tornadoes.