Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[davidjd1114]

Lol awful.

Exactly what I thought lol


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[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Snow mixing in with the rain in Reisterstown.

That’s interesting. Definitely more NAM like if you switch over within an hour or two. Hopefully this set of heavier returns is backed up by something so you don’t warm back up!

[BristowWx]

Snow mixing in B-town.  36

[EstorilM]

And the wait begins… look at the bright side, we don’t have to worry about virga! 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, davidjd1114 said:

Exactly what I thought lol


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Me too. The latest long range (God help us) Rap has been fairly consistent along these lines.

[Solution Man]

Lost site of Bull Run mountain, snow eminent 

[Jebman]

You can see the Great Lakes system interacting with the developing low near the OBX https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/us/

Once those two get together and party = obscene snow weather in the DMV then points north and east.

[davidjd1114]

Me too. The latest long range (God help us) Rap has been fairly consistent along these lines.

That I would be ok with/seems more likely to happen?


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[snowfan]

7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Lol awful.

Not for those that understand climo, dynamics, and history. Writing has been on the wall for many days that this was not going to be a big double digit storm for anyone west of the bay. Aside from areas east of 97 or in isolated elevation favored areas, this was having the look of a 2-6” storm. It helps to not believe the pretty maps. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, davidjd1114 said:

That I would be ok with/seems more likely to happen?


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Just look outside now

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

That’s interesting. Definitely more NAM like if you switch over within an hour or two. Hopefully this set of heavier returns is backed up by something so you don’t warm back up!

70/30 snow rain now. Temp down to 33 degrees!

[mitchnick]

Just now, davidjd1114 said:

That I would be ok with/seems more likely to happen?


 

I would be too, but who knows if it will.

[WxUSAF]

Temp has dropped a bit with the heavier rain but no snow flakes in sight despite my intense squints out the window 

[ifindppl]

37.4 and steady rain in Olney.

[nj2va]

Temp is down to 37, mod rain.  IDGAF about the storm with the hockey game on though

[mappy]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think you get 6" - 10". You're sitting in a really good spot.

Thanks 6” is plenty haha 

[goodwidp]

Snow mixing in with rain in Timonium. Seems to be 50/50 or so. 

[Jebman]

https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/us/ This shows that as the coastal develops and moves northward, it will pull the rain/snow line south very soon. Accumulations may ensue a bit earlier than expected for many.

[BlizzardNole]

Snow mixing in near Germantown despite light precip intensity.  Good sign?  Temp 37

[MillvilleWx]

17 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Precip over NC/VA and the overall DMV is just fascinating to watch as the coastal develops and the system over the Great Lakes interact. This is the kind of meteorological mayhem that finds its way into papers later on. I don't have the chops for this, but someone like Millville or Terpeast is probably gonna do an exemplar writeup about the way this entire system is developing. We are living history right now.

I wrote for the storm the past few days Jeb on the Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion. You can view them here https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd&version=0&fmt=reg

Click on version 1 and you'll see mine from yesterday. My colleague wrote the current discussion and it's also very well done, per usual  

[EastCoast NPZ]

Big beautiful fatties.  No chance in hell for daytime stickage here though.  If only this is what would've fallen when it was 11F in January.

[rjvanals]

NAMs don’t look great unfortunately if your looking for a boom scenario 

[Lucketts]

36/36 with a rain and snow mix.

[nw baltimore wx]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Snow mixing in with the rain in Reisterstown.

Snow mixing in here in Pikesville too.

[Harv_poor]

Interesting to look at the Wintergreen cameras. Stoney Creek golf course at bottom of mountain is just rain. Devil's Knob is snowing and snow covered (was bare the other day).

 

Just rain in Lutherville Timonium.

[mappy]

Snow mixing in

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A few wet flakes trying to mix in, 35F

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Thanks 6” is plenty haha 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

NAMs don’t look great unfortunately if your looking for a boom scenario 

Location bias coming in but I'm fine with the NAMs. Looks a lot like the EURO atp (and screws NYC just a little). No more 30" totals anywehre

 

[Leaking Gut]

Clarksburg MD

35 Light Precip. Some snow mixing