Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchie clown just for @MN Transplant

Diabolical blue spot on that map 

[NorthArlington101]

Temps on the GFS aren't awful... 32/33. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchie clown just for @MN Transplant

To be honest, minus 3 feet over Chestertown, this distribution of snow totals and the numbers NW of the fall line to the bay COULD happen at this point. IVT looks impressive as well with a lot of coastal influence even on the other 12z runs. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchie clown just for @MN Transplant

10:1  maps isn't much different than that in dc metro... maybe an inch or two higher

[LeesburgWx]

This is the best kind of snow, if it happens, as every branch of every tree will be white. 

[Eskimo Joe]

GFS 10:1 map would be a disaster for the power crews. 

[michaelmantis]

What’s the start time for all of the heavy stuff? This more an evening/overnight thing?

[jayyy]

lol the NYC forum must be confused

[NorthArlington101]

If you run the last four back it's hard not to see a slight NE trend in the best totals but still gotta hope we're just gonna meet in the middle to an outcome that is about half of this

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Well shit

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

If you run the last four back it's hard not to see a slight NE trend in the best totals but still gotta hope we're just gonna meet in the middle to an outcome that is about half of this

That's kind of what I'm seeing. So long as the rest of the 12z suite doesn't look hateful, I think some people might need watches later this aftn.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Don't show Randy

I saw.  Oh well.  It is what it is.  We’ll see another 15” storm in 25 years. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

This is the best kind of snow, if it happens, as every branch of every tree will be white. 

Yeah, and at least we have the temps going for us as we're well NW of the cities/fall line. Modeled radar shows heavy precip and that could be enough to get accumulating snow during the day time if the GFS is right.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

GFS still with some clown totals.....not the monster totals for 24hrs ago.....mostly seems the models are coming together in agreement.  By the looks of it GFS has destroyed all other models with this event unless something major happens......

DELMARVA disagrees. Still huge there. That jackpot just shifted 

[87storms]

Gfs seems to be trending slightly east just about every run since yesterday.

[yoda]

 

 

Thats all I have for 12z AIGFS 

(ETA - sorry wrong image, corrected qpf image posted)

[MN Transplant]

Precip at DC by 18z Sunday:

• 3km NAM 0.02"
• Parent NAM 0.13"
• RGEM 0.28"
• GFS 0.90"
• Euro (06z) 0.08"

One of these things is not like the other.

[osfan24]

Just now, 87storms said:

Seems to be trending slightly east just about every run since yesterday.

I mentioned this earlier but no one wanted to hear it. Looking more Niña like.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I saw.  Oh well.  It is what it is.  We’ll see another 15” storm in 25 years. 

Hey we can roll the dice with a Nino next year and see what happens, Iol

[Solution Man]

This is lock in time, I just expect noise at this point from GFS

[DDweatherman]

Just now, yoda said:

 

Thats all I have for 12z AIGFS 

Best run yet of the AI GFS I believe. It's a crappy model, but its been moving in the right direction. 

[yoda]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Best run yet of the AI GFS I believe. It's a crappy model, but its been moving in the right direction. 

I fixed my post with the updated total qpf image

[Alfoman]

12Z Canadian - trough is digging more and the tilt is more neutral rather than positive thru 54 hrs 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I saw.  Oh well.  It is what it is.  We’ll see another 15” storm in 25 years. 

[WxMan1]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Well shit

Might be more like a 6.5/7/8 to 1 ratio when all is said and done, since some of that may be rain or white rain at the onset, and the other heavy aggregate flakes at 32.3-33.0F. 

And if I'm being honest, I wish the bulk of the event were at night and not during the day. Who remembers the St Patrick's Day snow in 2014? We got like 8.5" in Crofton that night (going into the 17th).  At that event fallen during the day, we probably would have gotten half that amount. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

This is lock in time, I just expect noise at this point from GFS

I'll be content with no more shifts SE and a couple more ticks west on other guidance...

[baltosquid]

Honestly... the changes in the Ohio Valley are a little eyebrow raising. Since yesterday's 12z, the GFS had been going with a sort of three piece look (which other models had believed in) where the main wave is actually two pieces close together trying to phase, followed by a separate one further NW. This run mostly consolidates the main wave into one, and the trailer is still up NW. As long as that trailer gets close enough to bring the storm up, rather than just hinder the tilt, I don't see a reversal of the ticks NE as too crazy...

[87storms]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I mentioned this earlier but no one wanted to hear it. Looking more Niña like.

Yea I’m not impressed with the trend here at all. The rest of the guidance has been for more of a coastal impact. Temps are also a problem even more so for that crew. At this point, we gotta start taking the euro seriously.

[Alfoman]

Canadian going negative by 60 hrs - relatively similar to GFS trough orientation at 500 mb so far... I dare say this should be a better run?

 

Edit: Still too warm but the dual low placement is improved - nod towards GFS once again 

[TowsonWeather]